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Se7en

#1 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 09:36

Scoring: IMP


What's the best grand? How would you bid it?

Edit: Deleted second hand, not a good one.
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 09:56

Diamonds seems better, not sure if it is worth the 2 IMP loss though.

1-1
2-3
4-4
4-4NT
5-6
6-7
pass/7

6 asks about diamonds 6 shows something extra but not worth the grand.

I bid 3 instead of 2 becuase I play 2 as a pattern out request.

7 is just a suggestion, and the decision is far from obvious I think he would pass, but it is impossible not to be biased.
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#3 User is offline   Vilgan 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:10

7 seems like the preferred grand. Both grand slams can handle a 4-1 diamond break. 7 will die on almost any 4-1 spade break while 7 might be okay.

1 - 1
2 -
Stuff
- 7 (your choice)

seems like the route to it.
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#4 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:12

Fluffy, on Jan 14 2010, 06:56 PM, said:

Diamonds seems better, not sure if it is worth the 2 IMP loss though.

How much better is a Diamond slam?

You don't need to ruff a Spade unless they break 4-1. If Spades break 4-1, you can't ruff a Spade until you've already drawn trump, in which case you have no transport back to hand.

Diamonds might allow you some kind of squeeze options or a discovery play or some such...

Win the presumed club lead, ruff a club, two top Diamonds, cross in Hearts, draw trump, top spade, cross in Hearts, cash your last Diamond.

Figure out the best way to get 4 more Spade tricks...
Alderaan delenda est
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#5 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:17

7 is the best contract, because you can cope with 4-1 diamonds and 3-2 spades always, and 3-2 diamonds and 4-1 spades just under half the time. It's slightly better played from the short hand, because you can sometimes cope with spades 5=0 onside.

1 1
2 2
2NT 4 (I think 3 is a signoff with 5x3x )
4 4NT (cue / RKCB)
5 5 (0/3 / queen ask opposite 3
5NT 7 (queen + an unshowable king, in this case hearts)

If North didn't have Q, South would sign off in 6NT, which will usually be best.

Edit: corrected nonsensical analysis.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2010-January-14, 10:19

... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#6 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:34

hrothgar, on Jan 14 2010, 05:12 PM, said:

How much better is a Diamond slam?

You don't need to ruff a Spade unless they break 4-1.  If Spades break 4-1, you can't ruff a Spade until you've already drawn trump, in which case you have no transport back to hand.

In 7, you play AK, finding them breaking, then AK and a ruff if necessary.

With diamonds 3=2, a specific 4=1 break will occur
11/21 x 10/20 x 9/19 x 8/18 x 7/17 = 2.27% of the time

There are four 4-1 breaks where the jack isn't singleton, and diamonds will be 3-2 2/3 of the time, so playing in diamonds gains you about 6%.

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2010-January-14, 10:36

... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#7 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:35

gnasher, on Jan 14 2010, 11:34 AM, said:

hrothgar, on Jan 14 2010, 05:12 PM, said:

How much better is a Diamond slam?

You don't need to ruff a Spade unless they break 4-1.  If Spades break 4-1, you can't ruff a Spade until you've already drawn trump, in which case you have no transport back to hand.

In 7, you play AK, finding them breaking, then AK and a ruff.

With diamonds 3=2, a specific 4=1 break will occur
11/21 x 10/20 x 9/19 x 8/18 x 7/17 = 2.27% of the time

There are four 4=1 breaks where the jack isn't singleton, and diamonds will be 3-2 2/3 of the time, so playing in diamonds gains you about 6%.

Yes but what are the gains over the 2-IMP losses you may incur? :)
Kevin Fay
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#8 User is offline   ONEferBRID 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:45

gnasher, on Jan 14 2010, 11:17 AM, said:

7 is the best contract, because you can cope with 4-1 diamonds and 3-2 spades always, and 3-2 diamonds and 4-1 spades just under half the time.  It's slightly better played from the short hand, because you can sometimes cope with spades 5=0 onside.

1 1
2 2
2NT 4  (I think 3 is a signoff with 5x3x )
4 4NT (cue / RKCB)
5 5 (0/3 / queen ask opposite 3
5NT 7 (queen + an unshowable king, in this case hearts)

If North didn't have Q, South would sign off in 6NT, which will usually be best.

Edit: corrected nonsensical analysis.

Andy: After 5D = dQ-ask if 5C = 0 or 3 key cards:
pass 5D = 0 key cards
w/3 key cards:
5H = dQ + hK
5S = dQ + sK
5NT = dQ and no outside K
6C = dQ + cK
6D = no dQ
Don Stenmark ( TWOferBRIDGE )
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#9 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:57

Am I way off to suggest:

1 - 1
2 - 4

as initial bids? (Assuming that 3 would be non-forcing, as it often is in Europe.)

KJx is quite a good thrumph support. And if the diamond suit is fck'ed, it is likely to be a problem in a spade contract too.
_____________________________________

Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.

Best Regards Ole Berg

_____________________________________

We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:

- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.


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#10 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 10:58

kfay said:

Yes but what are the gains over the 2-IMP losses you may incur?


If we're in 7 and they're in 7, and we're vulnerable:

- We gain 19 IMPs on the 6% of hands where we make and they go down.
- We lose 2 IMPs when both contracts make, which is 0.68 x 0.72 = 49% of the time.
- We lose 3 IMPs on the 22% of hands where 7 goes an extra one down.

19 * 0.06 - 0.49 x 2 - 0.22 x 3 = -0.5

So, 7 is theoretically better in a match of sufficient length where both sides bid the grand slam.

I don't care - I want to be in 7 anyway. I'll make up the half IMP in 1NT on the next board.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#11 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 11:07

ONEferBRID, on Jan 14 2010, 05:45 PM, said:

Andy: After 5D = dQ-ask if 5C = 0 or 3 key cards:
pass 5D = 0 key cards
w/3 key cards:
5H = dQ + hK
5S = dQ + sK
5NT = dQ and no outside K
6C = dQ + cK
6D = no dQ

I'm not quite sure what your point is. There is more than one way to respond to the queen ask.

Some people (including me) prefer to use step one as denying the queen; some (apparently including you) sign off in the trump suit without the queen; others use the lower of 5NT and the trump suit to deny the queen.

You may believe that your method is better than mine, but on this hand it doesn't seem to make any difference which way you play it.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#12 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 11:27

1d=1s
2h=3d(gf)(2s for me would be much much weaker)
4h(rkc)=5c(2)
5h(grand try in d)=7d
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#13 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 11:48

There are many routes to bid it

1 1
2 3
4 4NT + some grand slam try

or

1 1
2 3 (GF)
3NT 4

now it gets a bit trickier... harder to bid a GS now
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#14 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 11:52

1 1
2 2
2NT 3
3 4
4 4NT
5 5
5NT

3 artificial and forcing (I specifically define the 4th suit that way as responder's third bid on reverse auctions because I agree with gnasher 3 is a signoff. It's an exception to my general rules about 4th suit forcing. Also there are better methods available like 3 is a signoff in any higher suit, but I don't play that.)

3 and 4 natural, responder bids 4 to make it easy to find that queen.

5NT shows the trump queen and heart king the way I play. Btw I think it's (clearly) best to have the cheapest bid deny the queen, at least on certain auctions, and thus I make it my rule all the time.

Now responder knows opener has exactly xx AKxx AQxxx Ax plus maybe a jack, and he can place it wherever he wants.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#15 User is offline   aguahombre 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 12:01

OR --an anti-leben (GF) 3D/2H, and then forgetting about trying to make spades a possible strain. It seems a lot easier to get to a grand without the spade suit complication and with Responder getting key information about controls and tricks in the other three suits.
"Bidding Spades to show spades can work well." (Kenberg)
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#16 User is offline   kayin801 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 12:15

jdonn, on Jan 14 2010, 10:52 AM, said:

1 1
2 2
2NT 3
3 4
...

Here, is 4 definitely diamond support or could it be a cue, something like Kx or Ax (if you play 1st OR 2nd round controls here, 2nd one obviously not the case on this hand, but in general)? Feel free to LOL ;P

I guess if we had diamond support and were thinking diamond slam why not follow 2 with 3 and then bid 4 after partner's rebid?

Auction obviously looks fine to me if that's 100% nat in your agreements, but I guess that looks be a little ambiguous to me with how I'm used to playing.
I once yelled at my partner for discarding the 'wrong' card when he was subjected to a squeeze that I allowed by giving the wrong count with too high a card. Now he's allowed to pitch aces when the opponents have the king in the dummy. At trick 2. When he could have followed suit. And blame me.

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#17 User is offline   ArtK78 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 12:32

gnasher, on Jan 14 2010, 11:58 AM, said:

kfay said:

Yes but what are the gains over the 2-IMP losses you may incur?


If we're in 7 and they're in 7, and we're vulnerable:

- We gain 19 IMPs on the 6% of hands where we make and they go down.
- We lose 2 IMPs when both contracts make, which is 0.68 x 0.72 = 49% of the time.
- We lose 3 IMPs on the 22% of hands where 7 goes an extra one down.

19 * 0.06 - 0.49 x 2 - 0.22 x 3 = -0.5

So, 7 is theoretically better in a match of sufficient length where both sides bid the grand slam.

I don't care - I want to be in 7 anyway. I'll make up the half IMP in 1NT on the next board.

You should also take into account the gain/loss achieved if the opponents stop short of the grand.

You certainly would not want to go down in 7 while 7 was cold when the opponents stop at the 6 level (or in game!).
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#18 User is offline   ONEferBRID 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 17:41

gnasher, on Jan 14 2010, 12:07 PM, said:

ONEferBRID, on Jan 14 2010, 05:45 PM, said:

Andy: After 5D = dQ-ask if 5C = 0 or 3 key cards:
pass 5D = 0 key cards
w/3 key cards:
5H = dQ + hK
5S = dQ + sK
5NT = dQ and no outside K
6C = dQ + cK
6D = no dQ

I'm not quite sure what your point is. There is more than one way to respond to the queen ask.

Some people (including me) prefer to use step one as denying the queen; some (apparently including you) sign off in the trump suit without the queen; others use the lower of 5NT and the trump suit to deny the queen.

You may believe that your method is better than mine, but on this hand it doesn't seem to make any difference which way you play it.

"My" way is based on a summary ( not mine) derived from several sources including Steve Robinson and Eddie Kantar's website ( since removed ).
I've found it very logical and precise.

Note: any of the sidesuit Kings can be clearly shown ( cheapest bid K first )-- all below 6-trump-- as well as Q w/no K or Q-only. If there is still room below 6-trump , then a 2nd specific K-ask is available as a grandslam try.
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#19 User is offline   ONEferBRID 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 18:01

kfay, on Jan 14 2010, 10:36 AM, said:

Dealer: North
Vul: None
Scoring: IMP
108
AK65
AQ643
A5
AKQ965
1074
KJ7
6
 


What's the best grand?  How would you bid it?

Edit: Deleted second hand, not a good one.

1D - 1S
2H - 3D ( forward-going; 2NT would be Leb = start of sign-off OR invite in Sp )
3H( cue ) - 3S ( cue )
4C ( cue ) - 4S ( cue )
4NT - 5H ( 2 - Q )
5S ( specific K-ask, since trump Q denied) - ??
??Replies to K-ask:
    5NT = K or Q ( since A and K already shown )
    6C = K
    6D = no outside K or Q

After the 5NT reply ( obviously the Q ), Opener has room for a 2nd K-ask( 6C )
6C - ??
??Replies to the 2nd K-ask:
    6D = no K
    7D = singleton
   6NT = K
    7C = KQ
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#20 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2010-January-14, 21:05

Let's see.

It seems that 7 requires a 3-2 spade split at first glance. However, two diamond could be played, and then two spades. If the person with one spade has only two diamonds, then spades can be established by way of a ruff.

If diamonds split 4-1, then spades could be tested, again. If spades also split 4-1, but the person with the stiff diamond also has the stiff spade, then a third round of spades could be played, ditching the losing heart, and then you need the QJ tight in hearts.

So, I like the chances at 7 better, I think.

Now, to bidding.

1-1
2-3
4 seems like a fair start.

Responder now cues 4. If Opener is aggressive, he can blast 4NT at this point, find out about the top three spades from partner (5), and then pursue the grand, but getting to 7 might be tough.

If Opener bids more slowly, cuebidding 4, Responder in my methods can make an interesting move. 4NT serves no great purpose. But, a 5 call (RKCB but focus diamond secondaries) tells a lot more. Opener bids 5 or 5 showing 3 (with whichever approach is used) and 5NT asks for the Queen, 6 showing the diamond Queen and the heart King. Looking at the diamond Jack, Responder knows what is probably right and bids 7.
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