[ron]

Scoring: IMP

---

Opponents bid

1D 1H
2N 3C
3H 4N
5H 6H

3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.
How would you rate various leads?

[Siegmund]

[first answer withdrawn because I didnt see who was declarer]

My vote is for C > D > H > S.

We're leading through strength with the diamond but that just means that if we force declarer to take an early finesse it will work. The spade is agressive but dangerous. The heart may solve a 2-way finesse but is the suit we're least likely to have a trick in to start with. That seems to leave a club as safest.

We are definitely going to need some luck to beat this - SA in declarer's hand and one fortunate face card in partner's, if not more.

[655321]

Low spade

[mike777]

655321, on Jan 11 2010, 12:23 AM, said:

Low spade

ditto

easy....

[akhare]

ron, on Jan 10 2010, 10:33 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

---

Opponents bid

1D 1H
2N 3C
3H 4N
5H 6H

3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.
How would you rate various leads?

Attacking leads work well against small slams, but in this case, it seems good to go passive.

I would opt for ♣ or ♥, with the latter having a little more weight...

[Mbodell]

How good are our opponents? How good are our teammates/field? I think I'd lead a ♥ if I trust the opponents to be good and missing 1 KC but not the Q.

[Jlall]

yeah a spade lead is really standout

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Going just by "rules", not the worst idea, as long as the rule have some merrits

#diamond is out, it is their suit, so this is out a "standard rule"
#leading from the 4th jack is also a terrible holding, also a "standard rule"

This leaves spades and hearts (trumps).

# Spades are attacking
# trumps are passive

Against small slams going for attack is not the worst idea, a "standard rule",
espesially if they seem to have the power for it.

Hence attack.

If you dont like to attack, reasonable, espesially playing MP, lead a trump.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[whereagles]

Opps will have trouble setting up the minors for discards, so I think going passive is the right thing here.

Trouble is the trump lead from Tx into the long hand isn't too hot... but ok.

[Codo]

Spade.

Dummy had shown around 18-19 HCPS including two KCs. he will have a lot of minor stuff. It is highly possible that he owns AQ(xx) of spades. But in that case, declarer can always finesse later. But maybe he won't finesse at trick one because he has other chances to discard a spade loser?

And if partner has a high spade you are obviously well placed with the spade lead too.

[pooltuna]

ron, on Jan 10 2010, 10:33 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

---

Opponents bid

1D 1H
2N 3C
3H 4N
5H 6H

3C is new minor focing, 4N is RKCB.
How would you rate various leads?

S>D>C>H

[hanp]

Cherdano always leads a spade here, I'll follow him.

[Fluffy]

the bidding suggests both opponents are balanced in the 31-34 range, finding partner with ♠Q doesn't look promising, and maybe 2 spade tricks is what we are suposed to get on this deal unless we lead the suit.

I would had led passive (heart for me), but if everyone else is saying spade I guess I am wrong.

[gwnn]

agree with 656098

[Siegmund]

You knew it had to happen someday.... here comes a double-dummy sim

There's room for a lot of interpretation what limits to impose on the hands. Here is what I used:
West is K32 T2 QT32 J932.
North: balanced 18-19; exactly 3 hearts; clubs not longer than diamonds; two key cards; no HQ
South: at least 12 HCP; exactly 5 hearts; no void.
NS together hold exactly five out of (4 aces+HK+HQ).

I compared only S2, H2, D2, and C2 leads.
For my "IMP comparison," I marked a lead as a winner if it sets the contract; no other lead holds declarer to fewer tricks; and some other lead allows declarer to take more tricks.
I marked a hand as "doesn't matter" if either all four leads allow the contract to make (possibly some making 6 and others making 7), or all four leads set the contract by the same number of tricks.

Doesn't matter - 792/1000
Clubs - 126
Hearts - 113
Diamonds - 99
Spades - 81

For my "MP comparison," I marked a lead as a winner if no other lead holds declarer to fewer tricks and some other lead allows declarer to take more tricks, and marked it as "doesn't matter" if all 4 leads produce the same result.

Doesn't matter - 646/1000
Clubs - 253
Hearts - 203
Diamonds - 196
Spades - 138

The results will be quite sensitive to your assumptions about South's hand. In particular my "South >= 12HCP" assumption made it very hard for East to have an ace (he never has more than 4HCP and often has less.) If you allow more distributional 10-11 point hands for South, East's HCP expectation will rise, and the spade lead will fare better.

[Edited to add: changing my requirement to South>=10 HCP instead of 12 moves the spade lead into 3rd place: doesnt matter 696/1000; club 183 heart 159 spade 136 diamond 121.]


Still, it's a starting point - and reassures me that if my judgment about a lead here is badly off, it's because my judgment about South's likely holding is off, not because I am crazy

[jdonn]

I love leading aggressively against slams but it just doesn't seem like the time for leading a spade to me. The minors don't seem to be breaking and the stronger hand is on my right. I would lead a (hopefully) passive trump.

[655321]

jdonn, on Jan 11 2010, 05:30 PM, said:

the stronger hand is on my right.

The strong hand is on your other right actually.

[Fluffy]

I love double dummy things, but our diamond holding is too much prone to deep finesing for it to be accurate.

[jdonn]

655321, on Jan 11 2010, 05:37 PM, said:

jdonn, on Jan 11 2010, 05:30 PM, said:

the stronger hand is on my right.

The strong hand is on your other right actually.

That's quite true. Almost to the point I now want to change my answer. I'll revert to spade.

I note that is the third time today I either misread a post or accidentally ignored what it said. I would like my place in forums record books duly noted.

[Jlall]

I don't understand how any bridge player could say:

1) I like leading aggressively vs slams but
2) This is not the hand for it.

Trumps are breaking. If there is a finesse in trumps it's likely on. If there is a finesse/double finesse in diamonds it's likely on. They had a complete power auction, rather than a tentative auction. LHO is very strong.

If this isn't the time for it, what is?