[hrothgar]

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/07/crosswor...dge/07card.html

[gnasher]

This seems a bit harsh:

NYT said:

The leader naively chose fourth-highest from his five-card spade suit

[y66]

Enjoyed that. WDF

[Hanoi5]

Nicely done. I, for one, miss her posts here.

[Jlall]

I don't understand this hand, if the opponents play fourth best and led the 2 then isn't playing the 9 at trick 1 right?

It gains when LHO has the JT of hearts almost always (barring an unlikely diamond shift).

Playing the Q only gains when LHO has 2 diamond honors and the SA and the HA (so that you can set up a diamond trick without RHO getting in).

Maybe the opponents played attitude leads in which case the Q is the right play at trick 1.

[FrancesHinden]

I admit that when I gave PA a couple of hands I didn't think very hard about the play - I was just looking for hands where the good score was due to our own actions (as you know, getting 77% in a one-session pairs event is mainly about luck plus taking all the gifts you are offered).

As I was dummy I can't remember what leads they were playing. However, it's not quite as simple as you say, because even if they play 4ths, there's also the possibility that LHO has a 4=3=3=3 or 4=3=4=2 or similar distribution and has led from a 3-card suit (either Axx or Jxx/10xx) in which case the Q is definitely right. Plus bad players do sometimes lead the Jack from J10xx which changes the odds a bit.

Of course, if we were really good bidders we'd have had 3NT played by the Qx hand.

p.s. gnasher, I think this was a slightly humerous 'naively' in the sense of 'innocently' or 'unsuspectingly'; it was certainly the normal lead

[Jlall]

FrancesHinden, on Jan 10 2010, 05:26 AM, said:

However, it's not quite as simple as you say, because even if they play 4ths, there's also the possibility that LHO has a 4=3=3=3 or 4=3=4=2 or similar distribution and has led from a 3-card suit (either Axx or Jxx/10xx) in which case the Q is definitely right.

This is true, you gain on ~2/3rds of those type of layouts by popping Q (since LHO will have the SA ~4/6ths of the time). All I'll add is he might also have ATx or even AJx some of these times and you'll be ok.

I still think playing the 9 is right if they play 4th, but you might use your table feel also (if they lead slowly much more likely to be a 3 card suit than usual, quickly is less likely etc).

Nice game!

[Jlall]

Also interesting that the H8 is important as a blocker of them having JT8x where they would lead the jack always.

[FrancesHinden]

Jlall, on Jan 10 2010, 10:39 AM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Jan 10 2010, 05:26 AM, said:

However, it's not quite as simple as you say, because even if they play 4ths, there's also the possibility that LHO has a 4=3=3=3 or 4=3=4=2 or similar distribution and has led from a 3-card suit (either Axx or Jxx/10xx) in which case the Q is definitely right.

This is true, you gain on ~2/3rds of those type of layouts by popping Q (since LHO will have the SA ~4/6ths of the time). All I'll add is he might also have ATx or even AJx some of these times and you'll be ok.

If LHO has Axx you also are also better to rise Queen when RHO has the ace of spades unless you are planning to duck the first heart. But if it goes H9, H10, duck, you are likely to have five losers on a diamond back.

There's another consideration as well. Playing the 9 is definitely your best chance for an overtrick. I think (although we're debating it) that playing the Queen is probably your best way to ensure the contract. If hearts are 4-4 you are probably more likely to make by playing the queen (losing only when the lead was from J10xx and RHO wins the ace and switches to a diamond from xx or KQJx, which I would say is unlikely). If hearts really are 5-3 the queen is almost certainly best. You know you are already in a good matchpoint spot, so shouldn't you be ensuring the contract?

There's a lot more to this hand than I'd originally thought.

[Jlall]

I don't think so, since you rarely are going down if you play the 9. I don't see why you go down if you play the Q and they shift to the DK...can't you just win and give up a spade? You lose 2 diamonds, 1 heart, 1 spade. Or are you saying they're gonna shift to a low diamond from KQJx, because I don't think that will ever happen. I also don't think they are shifting to xx of diamonds ever.

So basically you go down by playing the 9 if LHO has led from a 3 card heart suit. I think it is wayyy worth it to make the overtrick in that case.

On this hand you got 80 % of the matchpoints for +600. It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume you increase your MP score by 15 % if you make an overtrick, and you probably only decrease your score by 60 % (I assume there are a lot of 4S-1s) by going down. I think LHO has JTxx of hearts much more than 4x as often as he has a 3 card heart suit.

And again, it's not like you guarantee the contract by popping Q if LHO has a 3 card heart suit, sometimes it's just unmakeable when RHO has both aces.

Also since you need a monster game to win this and it's not like a normal 1 session game, go for the top imo!

Again, I think how quickly they led a heart could be a huge factor in how you play...they never lead quickly from a 3 card suit ime.