[mikeh]

A/E pls hide your answers.

You are in 4♥ with silent opps and escape a club lead...they lead a trump. Plan the play. Both follow to the first trump

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[KamalK]

Win first trick by playing small trump and hope J♥ or 10♥ fall.

Rest i would hope for finnesses to work

Appreciate if I can see responses from experts/advanced.

Regards

Kamal

[mike777]

hmmm try andpull trump while playing/ruff all the d ...and then play clubs..no finesse

hope for somekind of endplay...

[goobers]

Gut instinct is to draw trumps, try to drop the SQ, then finesse the diamond

[Cyberyeti]

I can't see a way that gives you absolute certainty here.

Hidden text follows

Spoiler

If trumps are 2-2, you want to draw them, ruff both dummy's diamonds and just exit with a club.

If trumps are 3-1, playing ♠AK then finessing the diamond if the Q hasn't dropped is OK.

I don't see how you work the entries to combine these chances.

The trump lead is odd, Jxx/10xx are not attractive holdings in case of singleton honour opposite, x is often unattractive, Hx is not that attractive, xx is unattractive if the fit might only be 8 cards, but OK if you're sure it's at least 9, so I'd like to see the auction.

[vuroth]

Win in hand, A♦, ♦ ruff, Q♥.

If ♥s are 2-2, eliminate the last diamond and throw them in in clubs.

If ♥s are 3-1, I can't see anything better than finessing for the spade. If it's IMPs, I guess I would follow more or less the same plan, try to get count on the side suits. IF it's MPs, maybe I'm better to ensure that I don't go more than down 1, and finesse sooner against the short heart holding?

[hanp]

If hearts are 3-1 and it is MPs you should certainly finesse sooner because you might make an overtrick if you guess right.

[pooltuna]

KamalK, on Jan 11 2010, 12:27 AM, said:

Win first trick by playing small trump and hope J♥ or 10♥ fall.

Rest i would hope for finnesses to work

Appreciate if I can see responses from experts/advanced.

Regards

Kamal

Spoiler

probably best to combine chances in ♠ & ♦ after drawing trump so play AK♠ if the Q does not fall take the ♦ finesse. This assumes the defense is good enough to cash their 3♣ tricks if either finesse fails.

clik and drag over the area preceding this to see my opinion. Vuroth suggestion for 2-2 ♥ is the best line if you can manage the entries to try both.

[hanp]

It seems to me that the combined chance of hearts 2-2 and guessing spades is quite a bit higher than the combination ♠AK and the diamond finesse.

Hearts must be splitting 2-2 more than 50% of the time after a heart lead, and even if there were no inference, the initial probabilities are still higher:

Mike777 line:
Chance of hearts splitting (knowing each has at least 1) = 44.5%
Chance spade queen is with short hearts = 54.55
Chance of success: 74.8%

Pooltuna line:
Chance of dropping the spade queen: 18.57%
Chance of diamond finesse: 50%
Chance of success: 59.3%

I'm sure I made some calculation mistake but I'm also pretty sure that mike777's line is way better.

[bid_em_up]

Doesn't Pooltuna's line also receive the benefit of hearts being 2-2?

[kgr]

bid_em_up, on Jan 11 2010, 06:45 PM, said:

Doesn't Pooltuna's line also receive the benefit of hearts being 2-2?

I thought longer before posting the same....
If you play 2 trumps before ruffing a ♦ then if trumps are 2-2 you will need 2 ruffs in S and a trump as an entry to N (To keep ♠ finesse in both hands) + the initial 2 trumps => no more trumps in hand and ruff/sluff does not work anymore.

[bid_em_up]

kgr, on Jan 11 2010, 11:50 AM, said:

bid_em_up, on Jan 11 2010, 06:45 PM, said:

Doesn't Pooltuna's line also receive the benefit of hearts being 2-2?

I thought longer before posting the same....
If you play 2 trumps before ruffing a ♦ then if trumps are 2-2 you will need 2 ruffs in S and a trump as an entry to N (To keep ♠ finesse in both hands) + the initial 2 trumps => no more trumps in hand and ruff/sluff does not work anymore.

ok, thx