[paulg]

Scoring: IMP

Pass (Pass) 1♠   (Pass)
1NT (Pass) 2NT (Pass)
3♥   (Pass) 3NT All pass

Lead: ♦5

Trick 1: ♦5, ♦2, ♦J, ♦Q

---

The opponents play Strong Two bids. They lead 4th from a good suit or 2nd highest from xxx/xxxx.

What's your line?

[whereagles]

gosh, what a mess. I have no clue what to do lol.

I'll take the club finesse and, if it holds, try and guess a heart right. Hoping to make by means of 4 clubs + 2 hearts or 3 clubs + 4 hearts.

[pooltuna]

cardsharp, on Dec 30 2009, 05:34 AM, said:

Scoring: IMP

Pass (Pass) 1♠   (Pass)
1NT (Pass) 2NT (Pass)
3♥   (Pass) 3NT All pass

Lead: ♦5

Trick 1: ♦5, ♦2, ♦J, ♦Q

---

The opponents play Strong Two bids. They lead 4th from a good suit or 2nd highest from xxx/xxxx.

What's your line?

My inclination is to have partner not upgrade his 1NT opener and just play in some number of ♥ here 2. Failing that I lead the ♥Q for a finesse. If the Q holds I switch to ♣.

Edit: to include transfer after 1NT call.

[kenrexford]

I think I'll win and lead the heart Queen, playing LHO for the heart King. If he covers, I win and then play for hearts to be no worse than 4-2 or something to happen in clubs. That way, I expect two diamonds, two spades, four hearts, and a club, for 9 at least.

If the Queen is ducked and wins, I then change tacks and go after clubs. I can assuredly end up with three clubs, two hearts, two diamonds, and two spades that way, for 9 at least.

If the Queen is won by RHO, I might nonetheless prevail if the heart Jack is Jx. There might be other options, as well, like a stiff club King or something.

[mikeh]

This is a fun hand.

I reject the idea of playing on clubs...while there are some really interesting end positions that may arise if we play on clubs and lose a trick in the suit early, the fact is that even winning 4 club tricks (and how do we intend to score 4 tricks absent stiff or doubleton K onside?) brings us to only 8 winners...altho, as said, that gives rise to some very interesting end positions on some layouts.

Playing on hearts offers two options: lead the Q or low to the A and back to the Q (better than low to the 10, since low to the 10 doesn't usually gain against Kx on our left while low to the Q is a home run against Jx on our left).

The odds seem to favour the heart K being on our right, since LHO may well have 5 or even 6 diamonds.

Both lines work with doubleton Jacks.

But low to the A and back to the Q loses to KJxx on our left, while the Q first prevails. KJxx on our right is a problem for both lines, assuming RHO rises with the K on round two of the suit....if he doesn't, we abandon the suit and play on clubs to guarantee 9 tricks.

If he does fly with KJxx on our right, we are not dead yet...altho we will need some luck and to guess right even when we have luck....for example.... do we assume KJxx or just KJx? The opps, who are weak...they play strong 2 bids...may help us with the count.

While I think that the K of hearts is on our right slightly more often than on our left, the fact that we probably lose to KJxx(x) on our right no matter what line we choose while we are assured of the contract by leading the Q through LHO with a similar holding makes me adopt the lead of the heart Q.

But it is very close.

[dellache]

I agree mostly with Ken and Mike here : we probably need to play Hearts for 4 tricks (or revert on Clubs if we are are allowed to score an early HQ) and choose the best line for this. If we don't succeed in Hearts, prospects will be bad (but not 100% desperate), even with 4-4 diamonds.

Taking the Heart suit in isolation, the best play is to run the HQ, making if West has the King (barring a stiff King, or KJxxx+). If we had strong feelings that East had the HK, the alternative play (x to Ace and x to Queen) has some appeal.

Quote

The odds seem to favour the heart K being on our right, since LHO may well have 5 or even 6 diamonds.

Hmmm... very very slightly and :

1. The diamond position is not that clear (admitedly West is more often long in D) ;
2. Even if West has long Diamonds, this is a mildly biased case for using vacant places theory : as West will lead in his longest minor (and he has a longest minor ), the fact that we know he has long diamonds is not such a strong hint for East having the HK ;
3. There's a vacant places syllogism : a. West has long diamonds, so b. East has often long Hearts, so c. East has the HK more often... But wait ! We fail when East has H-KJxx ! So the (weak) reason (East has long Hearts) why we try to find the HK in the East hand will also often lead to defeat when he has the HK...(*)

(*) Suppose we know East has 4 Hearts : playing the Q wins when West has Kx or KJ (5 cases), playing HA then x to Q wins when West has Jx or KJ (5 cases too !)

Imo, best play is definitely HQ from hand at T2.
Cheers,

[gnasher]

You've already done better than I would have. I'd have played ♦10 at trick one.

[kenrexford]

Actually, there is something weird going on here, with RHO's play at trick one.

LHO leads the diamond 5. RHO plays the Jack. We know for sure that LHO does not have J9-something, becauise he'd be an idiot to play the Jack. So, it seems fairly likely that LHO has the A9-something, with the 5. If the 5 is fourth best, then LHO presumably has A985 or A965, possibly with an extra card or two.

That gives RHO J8 or J6 at the top, with perhaps other cards. If he uses the Rule-of-11, then he can see four cards above the 5, so he knows that I as Declarer have two. If one of these two is an honor, then the 8 should look really good to him, unless he expects partner to possibly have AQ. But, he won't expect AQ-sixth because partner passed in first seat, assuming a weak 2♦ was possible.

So, I think that LHO probably has A985 in diamonds, plus possible length.

However, with that holding, white on red, why did he not open 2♦? This seems to eliminate a six-card diamond holding, unless RHO has a four-card major perhaps. But, with 6♦/4♥, he would have a nice 2♦ overcall after passing first and then hearing me bid 1NT. Thus, I am firmly convinced that LHO will not have six diamonds. Thus, diamonds are at worst 5-3. Either A985-J643 or A985x-Jxx. (x=lowest)

I'm not sure what all of this means, but it seems to suggest that LHO having the heart King is still perhaps less than 50-50 but closer than initially thought.

[dellache]

kenrexford, on Dec 30 2009, 10:51 PM, said:

However, with that holding, white on red, why did he not open 2♦? 

The OP said : "They play strong 2's"

[kenrexford]

dellache, on Dec 30 2009, 05:54 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 30 2009, 10:51 PM, said:

However, with that holding, white on red, why did he not open 2♦? 

The OP said : "They play strong 2's"

That explains part of it. (Duh!) But, P-P-1♠-P-1NT-P?!?!? That still seems to eliminate at these colors any 6-card suit.

Then again, my own biases suggest that anyone playing strong two's probably won't pop in here for random reasons and might pop diamond jack for similar random reasons.

[dellache]

kenrexford, on Dec 30 2009, 11:54 PM, said:

dellache, on Dec 30 2009, 05:54 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 30 2009, 10:51 PM, said:

However, with that holding, white on red, why did he not open 2♦? 

The OP said : "They play strong 2's"

That explains part of it. (Duh!) But, P-P-1♠-P-1NT-P?!?!? That still seems to eliminate at these colors any 6-card suit.

Then again, my own biases suggest that anyone playing strong two's probably won't pop in here for random reasons and might pop diamond jack for similar random reasons.

Anyway the knowledge of the diamond position has almost no practical influence on the right play in Hearts, so why bother ?

[paulg]

mikeh sums up my thoughts well.

It did look a fun hand. The heart suit is one where the best line for four tricks is not intuitive, but is becoming better known. At the same time, is that going to be best when there are entry issues?

In the end, I think the fact that you will almost always make the contract when the ♥K is onside, since you can switch to clubs if ducked, makes it best.

On the actual hand you did need to play hearts for four tricks and LHO held ♥Jx. Diamonds were 5-3 (one of Ken's layouts) and the club finesse lost.

Paul

[kenrexford]

cardsharp, on Dec 31 2009, 03:49 AM, said:

mikeh sums up my thoughts well.

It did look a fun hand. The heart suit is one where the best line for four tricks is not intuitive, but is becoming better known. At the same time, is that going to be best when there are entry issues?

In the end, I think the fact that you will almost always make the contract when the ♥K is onside, since you can switch to clubs if ducked, makes it best.

On the actual hand you did need to play hearts for four tricks and LHO held ♥Jx. Diamonds were 5-3 (one of Ken's layouts) and the club finesse lost.

Paul

So, as Declarer, you have won the diamond and then played the heart Queen toward dummy, ducking, and RHO wins (damn!). After diamond back, you play the heart Ace and see the Jack drop. Excellent! I like when that backup plan comes in!

[hanp]

I would win, lead a heart to the ace, and a heart to the queen. If the queen wins and no honor has appeared I will play clubs.