[Mbodell]

Scoring: MP

Partner opens 12-14 nt and extremely rarely upgrades 11s. Pass to you.

---

[DWM]

I went for 3NT.

Partner should have two tricks outside clubs and over 50% chance of getting 7 club tricks.

If 3NT is on there is a good chance that oposition will have a cheap sac so dont want them to have time to find it.

With 6 losers outside clubs there are not that many hands that P can cover 4 losers outside clubs and 3NT not being on.

[gwnn]

3NT. life is simple. it will make fairly frequently. it will keep them out of game sometimes. be sure to bid it quickly, not to give anything away. I'm afraid if they double you have to run and that's sad.

[P_Marlowe]

3NT.

If they find a X, I will bid 4C.

Be sure to make up your mind, what to do, if they X 3NT before you bid 3NT.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Cyberyeti]

3N, if I do anything else partner will have his usual 3 bare aces and 4 small clubs

I will sit a double by the hand not on lead, there must be a chance a club will hit the deck if it's just for an unusual lead.

Will pull a double by the hand on lead and curse if partner has J10xx.

[pooltuna]

Mbodell, on Dec 31 2009, 02:41 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Partner opens 12-14 nt and extremely rarely upgrades 11s.  Pass to you.

---

You asked the wrong question!! The right question is "Will someone please run a sim for me and see which contract is right?" I suspect with only 40% odds needed it will pass but if you are NV it ought to be much closer

[karlson]

Inviting in clubs seems normal to me.

[jdonn]

pooltuna, on Dec 31 2009, 09:11 AM, said:

Mbodell, on Dec 31 2009, 02:41 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Partner opens 12-14 nt and extremely rarely upgrades 11s.  Pass to you.

---

You asked the wrong question!! The right question is "Will someone please run a sim for me and see which contract is right?" I suspect with only 40% odds needed it will pass but if you are NV it ought to be much closer

40% are the odds if it's only making vs down 1. I wouldn't be surprised to bid 3NT and go down 2 or 3...

[pooltuna]

jdonn, on Dec 31 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

pooltuna, on Dec 31 2009, 09:11 AM, said:

Mbodell, on Dec 31 2009, 02:41 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Partner opens 12-14 nt and extremely rarely upgrades 11s.  Pass to you.

---

You asked the wrong question!! The right question is "Will someone please run a sim for me and see which contract is right?" I suspect with only 40% odds needed it will pass but if you are NV it ought to be much closer

40% are the odds if it's only making vs down 1. I wouldn't be surprised to bid 3NT and go down 2 or 3...

Yet another reason to do a sim.

[aguahombre]

does anyone care what the rest of this MP field is playing? weak or strong NT?

If all the players who are serious contenders use strong NT, I think I would try to just show my long club suit and let partner decide. They don't have an immediate 3NT as an option, and will be describing, giving the defense more information about opener's hand --and that, in-itself might gain us.

If the field is using weak NT, I might be more inclined to blast.

[Phil]

I loathe 3N at MPs. You are already anti-fielding with 1N. 3N completely randomizes - and we are red, so there's not a lot of upside in -1 or -2. I would bet most tables are opening 1x with pards and we'll invite in clubs, or putz around with 1N and bid clubs over a major suit overcall or balance.

Inviting looks completely obvious. And it might just buy the hand, which I would be very happy to do.

[awm]

Here are ten randomly generated opener hands:

♠A97
♥AK532
♦K4
♣852

Game is excellent. This hand might not open 1NT anyway, and should accept invite.

♠AQ
♥K652
♦Q65
♣Q982

The lead will probably give us the game. This hand should accept an invite.

♠AQ7
♥AJ9
♦QT64
♣865

Game is really good. This hand should accept an invite.

♠T865
♥KQ7
♦AK92
♣96

Game makes if the clubs come in and opponents can't cash five tricks in the majors off the top. This is probably close to the "IMP odds" that you want for a game. This hand would reject invite.

♠T5
♥KT2
♦AKT72
♣Q65

There is an obvious problem with this game, although you might make if they lead hearts instead of spades. This hand probably plays in a cold 4♣ after an invite (diagnosing the spade weakness).

♠AQ7
♥AK52
♦542
♣982

Game makes if diamonds are 4-4 or are not lead (unless clubs 3-0 offside). There's a good chance that bashing game gets you a major suit lead here, whereas the invitational route is likely to avoid game entirely.

♠AK8
♥8652
♦AQ6
♣982

Game makes if hearts are 4-4 or not lead (unless clubs 3-0 offside). The key here is to get to 5♣, which is excellent. The invite has some chance at this (if opener "accepts" but diagnoses the heart problem).

♠AQT6
♥QT52
♦A74
♣95

Game makes if clubs divide, and inviting likely misses this 50% game.

♠Q85
♥KJ96
♦A942
♣Q5

Game is not very good here, with a problem in spades and only eight tops. Still, a heart lead might see you home. Inviting should avoid this game.

♠AQ7
♥KJ9
♦T962
♣Q86

Game can often be defeated on best defense, but in real life you will usually make (a major suit lead and you have nine tops). This game should be bid on an invitational sequence however.

-------------

Looking at these examples:

There are four hands where an invite will be accepted and 3NT reached, and in all cases game is very good.

There are two hands where an invite might allow diagnosis of a "problem suit." In one case a cold 5♣ is reached instead of an iffy 3NT; in the other a cold 4♣ is played instead of a rather poor 3NT.

There are four hands where an invite will be rejected. Of these, one game is quite poor, two games are around 50% or a bit less (worth bidding at IMPs, but not a huge loss to miss), and one game will probably make in practice if you bash it.

I'd rate the invite as a mild winner, but the reason has more to do with being able to avoid 3NT when there's a big problem in some suit. It's conceivable that showing a "game force with a heart singleton" might actually win over either of the alternatives.

[Phil]

pooltuna, on Dec 31 2009, 09:11 AM, said:

I suspect with only 40% odds needed it will pass but if you are NV it ought to be much closer

Please take five seconds before you blurt out your answer and take notice its MPs. Thanks.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Dec 31 2009, 01:52 PM, said:

pooltuna, on Dec 31 2009, 09:11 AM, said:

Mbodell, on Dec 31 2009, 02:41 AM, said:

Scoring: MP

Partner opens 12-14 nt and extremely rarely upgrades 11s.  Pass to you.

---

You asked the wrong question!! The right question is "Will someone please run a sim for me and see which contract is right?" I suspect with only 40% odds needed it will pass but if you are NV it ought to be much closer

40% are the odds if it's only making vs down 1. I wouldn't be surprised to bid 3NT and go down 2 or 3...

It's mps.....you guys can have your 40% tops and 60% bottoms....

That's not to say that I reject 3N, but it had better have 50% or better odds before it is a good mp call.

So I ran a simulation. I don't like double-dummy analysis for this type of hand, since the opps will always make the killing lead if there is one, and often that requires what appears to be an odd lead based on leader's holding.

I also had to filter out many hands on which 2nd seat would (imo) find some action other than pass.

Based on that, I ran a sample of 100 hands.

22 of them were rejected because 2nd seat would/should act.

7 were rejected because it seemed to me that either there was a legitimate tossup on opening lead...one lets it home, the other sets it, or the play looked complex and the outcome uncertain.

Of the remaining 71 hands, 3N was cold 45 times (on reasonable lines...including a 1st round hook in clubs when it was safe to do so, but otherwise playing for the drop when losing the hook meant failing....another double dummy issue...double dummy simulators never lose to Qxx onside while in real life, we will frequently do so if we can't afford to lose the lead)

And it failed 26 times.

So that seems to make 3N an overwhelming favourite at any form of scoring. Perhaps the biggest lesson here is that on most hands on which 2nd seat would act, 3N fails. It is the opps' silence that suggests that 3N will work.....even when 4th seat has shape and stuff, often 2nd seat's hand is such that they cannot realistically find the killing lead.

[jdonn]

Mike doesn't your sim support inviting, not blasting game? It seems game would make almost all the time partner accepts an invite but not usually if he doesn't.

[jonottawa]

Ugh. Tough problem. I have no strong objection to any of the plans.

I passed. If we make 3N we'll beat the folks in ♣. If we don't, we'll beat the folks in 3N.

3N at IMPs.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Dec 31 2009, 02:41 PM, said:

Mike doesn't your sim support inviting, not blasting game? It seems game would make almost all the time partner accepts an invite but not usually if he doesn't.

I didn't look at opener's hands to see if he'd accept an invite. Certainly, on some hands we make even tho opener has a minimum....opening leader underleads an Ace for the 9th trick, or fails to lead a suit that runs....AQx on lead with partner KJxxxx was one hand.

And there were hands on which 4th chair could successfully get in after an invitational sequence. My understanding is that most weak notrumpers (all, in my experience) have to start with 2♣ in order to invite. That gives 4th seat way too much opportunity to bid. Indeed, would it surprise anyone to learn that there are hands on which the opps are cold for game, and yet we will make 3N because of the (non-directed) lead?

I am not going to revisit the simulation (I didn't save the deals, so I'd have to redo it) but my suspicion is that the gain from inviting, in the sense of avoiding some games that fail, is offset in whole or in large measure, by the giving away of bidding space.

Finally, game usually made because we have 7 club tricks....on only a few hands were we secure in taking a safety play in clubs....even with a maximum (or, as most would play...a non-minimum) opener would often have one side suit either completely wide open or stopped only once. A A K with xxx in clubs might well be rejected.....A A K xx in clubs would surely be rejected, yet the first is virtually cold and the 2nd has decent play (I am assuming no other hcp)

[jdonn]

I don't think examining a bunch of possibilities means very much. I totally understand that you don't want to redo the sim and decide in each case whether an invite would be accepted or rejected (or whether we effectively allow LHO isn't the auction, or if the invite is rejected but we go down anyway, etc), but without doing so then at best I don't think a meaningful conclusion can be drawn from your sim.

[Mbodell]

FWIW here is the hand that brought it about traveller. We were down 1 when the opponents blocked the running heart suit. Most people were setting the opponents in hearts (and likely the 2nd hand would be eliminated from some sims as possibly should have competed over weak nt, certainly should over strong, maybe not over weak with x AQJTxx QT9x 9x).

[mikeh]

Mbodell, on Dec 31 2009, 05:46 PM, said:

FWIW here is the hand that brought it about traveller.  We were down 1 when the opponents blocked the running heart suit.  Most people were setting the opponents in hearts (and likely the 2nd hand would be eliminated from some sims as possibly should have competed over weak nt, certainly should over strong, maybe not over weak with x AQJTxx QT9x 9x).

Possibly? lol....6=4 with a good major and all values in one's suits? I would have eliminated this from my sims...obviously not a good idea with your opps

edit: I looked the hand up, and it is 4th seat with the hearts...had you blasted 3N, the odds are very, very high that the lead is a spade from AK10xx...with a lot to be said for a low spade....bingo, 3N makes...whereas if you bid 2♣, intending to invite, 4th chair would have to be comatose not to bid 2♥