[ajm218]

Scoring: IMP

(2♠) ?

---

Scoring: IMP

(2♠) ?

---

Scoring: IMP

(2♠) ?

---

I thought this one was a wtp though...?

[andy_h]

1. If 3♠ is asking for a stopper then that's what I bid with of course every intention of pulling to 4♠. If that's not available then 4♠ showing a bizarrely strong hand (hopefully not construed as minors with longer clubs). Failing that then I'll just blast 6♦. Ideally I'd like to double if partner is never passing it out but I don't want to risk that.
2. 3♦, if this ain't a GF then I don't know what is.
3. 2♥.

Last 2 are wtps.

[gwnn]

6♦
3♦
2♥

[Fluffy]

1: double and let partner bid hearts twice to be able to play the correct grand.
2 and 3: 2NT and let partner investigate the spade fit if neccesary.

EDIT: I didn't even realise I had 3♦ aaible without a lie. 3♦ better, althou 2NT might work better sometimes.

[Codo]

1. X and forcing diamonds. I am not sure whether 6 diamond is enough. If I had just one bid, I would try 7 Diamond.

2. 3 Diamond... wtp

3. 2 ♥ wtp

[pooltuna]

1) unless you have some magical way of discovering that partner holds the ♣Q, 6♦
2) 3♦
3) open 2NT instead of 1♦

[Phil]

Hope this was rubber bridge.

[mikeh]

Fluffy, on Dec 15 2009, 07:46 AM, said:

1: double and let partner bid hearts twice to be able to play the correct grand.
2 and 3: 2NT and let partner investigate the spade fit if neccesary.

EDIT: I didn't even realise I had 3♦ aaible without a lie. 3♦ better, althou 2NT might work better sometimes.

If we double, on (1), partner won't be bidding 3♥...he can hardly have the values for that....he'll bid 2N.

Even if he does bid hearts eventually, and we cue...his retreat to hearts won't promise 5...what else would he do with 4=4=2=3 no spade stop?

And, finally, assume he has 5 hearts....are you seriously suggesting that this makes 7♥ attractive? What card are you playing on the spade A from the opps?

My vote: 6♦ on board one, 7♦ if I feel we are badly stuck. While 7♦ is against the odds, on some hands on which it fails, 6♦ fails as well (although 7♦ will usually be doubled on those hands)

On the second hand, we have an easy 3♦, but we should not close our eyes to the problems that may ensue if partner bids 3N...do we bid 4♠? I don't think so.

On the third hand, we have an easy reverse into 2♥. If partner raises, he will have 5+ spades so we can always retreat to that suit.

[ajm218]

Would anyone bid differently on the second hand if the auction started
P P p 1♥
P 1♠ p ?

[jdonn]

7♦, 3♦, 2♥. I think they are all wtp. Is anyone seriously going to settle for 6 on the first one? Or double and defend 2♠X?

[nigel_k]

1. Double. I think 7♦ is odds against and I doubt they will sacrifice as LHO has so few cards it will seem expensive even against 1440. Obviously I would prefer partner doesn't pass but 800 (vs 920) is still quite likely if he does. The upside is when partner bids clubs or something else useful. But probably we'll end in 6♦.

2. 3♦ and pass if he bids 3NT.

3. 2♥.

[655321]

6♦, 3♦, 2♥.

7♦ most likely needs the ♣Q (a few other chances: ♠A plus entry, or doubleton club, etc) and I don't know how to get partner to cooperate - I don't really want to defend 2♠X.

Don't like the idea of bidding 2NT at any stage on (2) and (3), that just seems a distortion for no purpose.

[gwnn]

hand number 1 is really good for a simulation. If grand is 60% or better I'm in for 7♦. (yes I know that if we know opps are in slam grand just needs about 50% but sometimes they will be defending spades or playing 5♦ or 4NT or..., not very likely, but sometimes they will)

[maggieb]

655321, on Dec 15 2009, 05:37 PM, said:

7♦ most likely needs the ♣Q (a few other chances: ♠A plus entry, or doubleton club, etc) and I don't know how to get partner to cooperate - I don't really want to defend 2♠X.

I don't feel like you are being fair to the complete list of chances for 7♦ being a success:

♣Q
doubleton club
Qx of clubs dropping when partner has the J
♠A and a side entry
♠A and a spade lead
Jxxx of hearts and a side entry
any 5 hearts and a side entry
pseudo squeeze (maybe this isn't a real reason, but i think it is)

And it forces LHO to save in 7S immediately if he wants to save.

[jdonn]

No one has even close to convinced me not to chance the grand on the first one. With all due respect, everyone here is a pansy! As long as diamonds come in we essentially need one of the following:
- Queen of clubs
- Singleton or doubleton club
- Ace of spades plus entry in diamonds
- Ace of spades plus spade lead
- Singleton or doubleton heart and three clubs, or sometimes singleton heart and four clubs
- Some amount of clubs to the jack with the queen falling
- A crucial mistake on the million discards they are about to have to make knowing nothing about our shape in clubs and hearts
- KQ (or maybe KJ) of spades, a low spade lead and diamond entry
- K of spades, ace of spades lead and a diamond entry
- JT (or maybe J9) of clubs and a club lead
- Jxxx or 5+ hearts (or maybe any xxxx) in dummy and a diamond entry
What am I missing? Go on run a sim (which won't even incorporate all the wrong leads they could make), I'll put myself out there on this one.

Wow Maggie you beat me to it lol. And I didn't even consider them saving over it as well!

[maggieb]

jdonn, on Dec 15 2009, 06:04 PM, said:

Wow Maggie you beat me to it lol. And I didn't even consider them saving over it as well!

Yeah, but looking at your list I was conservative on the "chances". I missed some of the less likely things that can help us that are on your list.

[655321]

Wow impressive list!

A sim would not capture bad leads or 'misdefense' on the run of the diamonds so the real life chances for 7♦ should be better than a simulation. I would be very curious to see the results of a sim though.

My experience on these hands is that partner never has what I hope for

[jdonn]

You have experience on these hands?!

[gnasher]

I know I'd bid 7♦ at the table - I just like the idea of jumping to the seven level on the first round of the auction.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Dec 15 2009, 06:04 PM, said:

No one has even close to convinced me not to chance the grand on the first one. With all due respect, everyone here is a pansy! As long as diamonds come in we essentially need one of the following:
- Queen of clubs
- Singleton or doubleton club
- Ace of spades plus entry in diamonds
- Ace of spades plus spade lead
- Singleton or doubleton heart and three clubs, or sometimes singleton heart and four clubs
- Some amount of clubs to the jack with the queen falling
- A crucial mistake on the million discards they are about to have to make knowing nothing about our shape in clubs and hearts
- KQ (or maybe KJ) of spades, a low spade lead and diamond entry
- K of spades, ace of spades lead and a diamond entry
- JT (or maybe J9) of clubs and a club lead
- Jxxx or 5+ hearts (or maybe any xxxx) in dummy and a diamond entry
What am I missing? Go on run a sim (which won't even incorporate all the wrong leads they could make), I'll put myself out there on this one.

Wow Maggie you beat me to it lol. And I didn't even consider them saving over it as well!

What are you missing?

In your world, you never lose a trick from AKQ10xxx?

As for misdefending...or getting a club lead...where do you find these defenders? RHO bid spades....or did you forget that? And you expect that LHO will lead from the club Queen after you overcall 7♦? Wow. Put it another way..... do you think that you and a favourite partner or even an unfamiliar but good partner could possibly go wrong while both paying attention?

No sane opp is going to play you for AKQx in hearts....any opp with the club Queen will hold onto it for dear life. In fact, I had originally thought of bidding the grand because of the mis-defence/pseudo squeeze chances... but they work only against drunks or beginners on this layout.

So: we need to buy the club Queen AND no diamond loser, or a lucky club lie and no diamond loser.

I do think a simulation is in order, but don't have the time to do one..... I'd guess the grand is about 40% absent misdefence and, as I say, against competent opps, the chances of misdefence on this hand must be as close to zero as they can ever be. This figure is a seat of the pants guess, and I know that it will be inaccurate.. the question is, in which direction and by how much.

Also, when 7 goes down, it goes down doubled much of the time....if you were LHO with J9xx in diamonds, you don't double 6 (and may not beat 6) but you have an easy double of the grand. No one is ever running.

As for them saving... no-one is saving when they hold a diamond trick...which is when I want to be in small slam. And if they have a hand on which they dive over 7♦, surely there is a chance they will dive over small as well? I mean, when was the last time someone bid 6♦ and then bid 7 over the save? Which is exactly what I'd do here... and now they may not save since clearly I don't have 13 tops.... I would have bid 7 earlier.

BTW, the truth is that at the table I might well fall for the temptation that Andy mentioned...I mean, how often is bidding for the 1st time at the 7-level even remotely a logical possibility? Seems a shame to waste the story...which you have everytime when you bid 7..... and only have, after bidding 6, when 7 makes.