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Health Care

#181 User is offline   peachy 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 03:26

PassedOut, on Feb 24 2010, 10:43 PM, said:

Rodney26, on Feb 24 2010, 07:38 PM, said:

Nevertheless, my main point is that there is no evidence that our medical costs will be less expensive if we go to single payer or some other federal provider program.

Every country in which the government takes responsibility for the health of its citizens gets better results for half the per capita cost.

I seldom wander into the Water Cooler and really never post here...bu can't resist this.

Can you back this up with anything resembling reliable data?
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#182 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 04:28

peachy, on Feb 25 2010, 04:26 AM, said:

PassedOut, on Feb 24 2010, 10:43 PM, said:

Rodney26, on Feb 24 2010, 07:38 PM, said:

Nevertheless, my main point is that there is no evidence that our medical costs will be less expensive if we go to single payer or some other federal provider program.

Every country in which the government takes responsibility for the health of its citizens gets better results for half the per capita cost.

I seldom wander into the Water Cooler and really never post here...bu can't resist this.

Can you back this up with anything resembling reliable data?

alot of posters claim they get better health for 50% or so of GDP on bbo.

in general....almost anyone compared to usa...........


----------------


if this is false......ok....houston we got a problem.
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#183 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 07:03

Some facts and figures


http://www.photius.c...ealthranks.html
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#184 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 07:13

The US spent the most money per capita and was listed 37th on overall health system performance and 71st on overall health? These data can't be right, I foresee an email scam coming up.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#185 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 07:50

peachy, on Feb 25 2010, 04:26 AM, said:

PassedOut, on Feb 24 2010, 10:43 PM, said:

Rodney26, on Feb 24 2010, 07:38 PM, said:

Nevertheless, my main point is that there is no evidence that our medical costs will be less expensive if we go to single payer or some other federal provider program.

Every country in which the government takes responsibility for the health of its citizens gets better results for half the per capita cost.

I seldom wander into the Water Cooler and really never post here...bu can't resist this.

Can you back this up with anything resembling reliable data?

Interesting that anyone would even question this since the information is so widely available.

You can look at the chart Al mentioned that ranks France first in health care and the US 37th. You can look at Wikipedia's cross-country comparisons chart to see that France spends $3601 per person per year, while the US spends $7290.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#186 User is offline   Rodney26 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 09:52

PassedOut, on Feb 25 2010, 08:50 AM, said:

Interesting that anyone would even question this since the information is so widely available.

You can look at the chart Al mentioned that ranks France first in health care and the US 37th. You can look at Wikipedia's cross-country comparisons chart to see that France spends $3601 per person per year, while the US spends $7290.

French doctors make a lot less money than American doctors. Who knows where one can get reliable statistics on that but everything I've tried to find suggests it is a greater disparity than the 2:1 spread you cite below (something like 260K/110K).

If pure socialization was the simple answer, the Massachusetts experiment should be working. Instead, if you plot Massachusetts as a point on the much discussed graph Richard posted in a different thread, it would have the steepest negative slope of them all.

If the education & malpractice costs for physicians, drug consumption, reliance on expensive diagnostics & tendency towards surgical solutions don't change along with the socialization, costs will not be reduced in this country.
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#187 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 10:29

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 06:52 PM, said:

If pure socialization was the simple answer, the Massachusetts experiment should be working. Instead, if you plot Massachusetts as a point on the much discussed graph Richard posted in a different thread, it would have the steepest negative slope of them all.

One would hope that 20 seconds actual thought about the axes on this chart would show the the problem with this argument...

Spoiler

Alderaan delenda est
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#188 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 10:56

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 10:52 AM, said:

If the education & malpractice costs for physicians, drug consumption, reliance on expensive diagnostics & tendency towards surgical solutions don't change along with the socialization, costs will not be reduced in this country.

Do you know of better ways to address these issues than are already in the proposed legislation?
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#189 User is offline   Rodney26 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 11:00

hrothgar, on Feb 25 2010, 11:29 AM, said:

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 06:52 PM, said:

If pure socialization was the simple answer, the Massachusetts experiment should be working. Instead, if you plot Massachusetts as a point on the much discussed graph Richard posted in a different thread, it would have the steepest negative slope of them all.

One would hope that 20 seconds actual thought about the axes on this chart would show the the problem with this argument...

Spoiler

$9500 and 80 would be the steepest line on the chart if it were there.

The problem isn't with the depth of my thinking; the problem is it doesn't fit the narrative.
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#190 User is offline   hrothgar 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 11:43

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 08:00 PM, said:

$9500 and 80 would be the steepest line on the chart if it were there.

The problem isn't with the depth of my thinking; the problem is it doesn't fit the narrative.

I’d say that there are some significant issues with the “depth of your thinking”…
You are suggesting that we use the slope of the line to evaluate the effectiveness of the “Massachusetts experiment” in Health Care enacted back in 2006.

There are three blatantly obvious problems with this line of argument

1. Anyone want to hazard a guess about the magnitude of the lag operators on “Health Care Spending” versus “Life Expectancy”? This is a pretentious way of saying that the impact of the Massachusett experiment on Health Care spending is easy to measure and will take effect almost immediately. In contrast, one would expect that the impact on “Life Expectancy” would take much longer to phase in. (The only high leverage variable that I can think of in the short term is decreases in infant mortality).

2. You are trying to drawn conclusions from an isolated data point. You haven’t considered even the most rudimentary questions like “Did the Massachusetts experiment result in a statistically significant change in the ratio between Health Care Spending and Life Expectancy”? Equally important, do you believe that income and employment levels in Massachusetts are the same now as in 2006? Could these have some impact on Life Expectancy or Health Care spending? Have health care rates in other States changed during this same period of time?

3. Even if you wanted to conduct a change point analysis or a hypothesis test, how are you going to do this? The “experiment” took started three years ago. Many of the provisions were phased in over time. I doubt that there are any demographic studies that are appropriate to even start to analyze this type of issue.

Simply put, you are using the wring data (and not even asking the right questions)

I suspect that Helene, Han, Matt or any of the other members of this forum who work with data for a living would be happy to explain the myriad of additional issues with your line of argument. Moreover, they’re much more polite than I am so you probably won’t run much of a risk of them calling you stupid.
Alderaan delenda est
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#191 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 11:59

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 10:52 AM, said:

French doctors make a lot less money than American doctors. Who knows where one can get reliable statistics on that but everything I've tried to find suggests it is a greater disparity than the 2:1 spread you cite below (something like 260K/110K).

Less than 25% of medical costs in the US go for physician services.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#192 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 12:13

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 10:52 AM, said:

If pure socialization was the simple answer, the Massachusetts experiment should be working. Instead, if you plot Massachusetts as a point on the much discussed graph Richard posted in a different thread, it would have the steepest negative slope of them all.

For reasons that Richard has mentioned, Massachussetts is a poor example. A good example is Hawaii (Obama's home state), which has mandated universal coverage since 1974, allowing the advantages to take effect: In Hawaii’s Health System, Lessons for Lawmakers.

Quote

But perhaps the most intriguing lesson from Hawaii has to do with costs. This is a state where regular milk sells for $8 a gallon, gasoline costs $3.60 a gallon and the median price of a home in 2008 was $624,000 — the second-highest in the nation. Despite this, Hawaii’s health insurance premiums are nearly tied with North Dakota for the lowest in the country, and Medicare costs per beneficiary are the nation’s lowest.

Hawaii residents live longer than people in the rest of the country, recent surveys have shown, and the state’s health care system may be one reason. In one example, Hawaii has the nation’s highest incidence of breast cancer but the lowest death rate from the disease.

And it's a fun place to be also.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#193 User is offline   Rodney26 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 16:38

PassedOut, on Feb 25 2010, 12:59 PM, said:

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 10:52 AM, said:

French doctors make a lot less money than American doctors. Who knows where one can get reliable statistics on that but everything I've tried to find suggests it is a greater disparity than the 2:1 spread you cite below (something like 260K/110K).

Less than 25% of medical costs in the US go for physician services.

Yes, I read here that it is around 23% per capita in America; 15% in the rest of the world.

So, let's say that in the US, we'll pay a physician $230 for every $1000 of services.

Worldwide on average, you'd pay $75 to a physician for every $500 of the same services.

Is it really that unreasonable to suggest that we're not getting the US down to $500 for those same services based on changing the system alone? US doctors' incomes are going to have to be forced down to get there. Do you see the political will for that? I'm a skeptic. :P
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#194 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 17:29

Rodney26, on Feb 25 2010, 05:38 PM, said:

Is it really that unreasonable to suggest that we're not getting the US down to $500 for those same services based on changing the system alone? US doctors' incomes are going to have to be forced down to get there. Do you see the political will for that? I'm a skeptic.  :P

We don't have to cut costs in half to get the federal budget deficit under control. We do have to stop the uncontrolled increases and work on cutting out the real waste. I don't know of anyone who advocates forcing down the salaries of doctors. Do you?
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#195 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2010-February-25, 18:58

An overlooked item on the health insurance agenda is that we are dealing mostly with publicly traded companies whose interests are the health of their own stock's value rather than the health of their customers.

It always seems to get back to a basic question: is health care a right or a commodity?
"Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere."
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#196 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-26, 06:20

I am more than a little skeptical of the direction we are going in health care reform but I want to say that I do not think that I do not think that doctor's incomes are at all the problem. The table provided a few posts bac gives the average doctor's income as around $200,000 per year. It's a tough and vital job requiring extensive preparation and continuing effort to stay aware of new technology. I may well have some criticisms of the medical establishment, but $200,000 incomes is not one of them.

I am not really happy about how things are going with the reform effort. I guess I have mostly said why already, but the brief version is that I think there are two problems, access and total cost, and the Dems have shown little interest in addressing the second. Of course the Reps have shown little interest in addressing the first. Oh well, what else is new?
Ken
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#197 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2010-February-26, 07:04

Health care reform theme song, and I don't mean "Both sides now" ....
The Grand Design, reflected in the face of Chaos...it's a fluke!
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#198 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2010-February-26, 08:45

kenberg, on Feb 26 2010, 07:20 AM, said:

I am not really happy about how things are going with the reform effort. I guess I have mostly said why already,  but the brief version is that I think there are two problems, access and total cost, and the Dems have shown little interest in addressing the second. Of course the Reps have shown little interest in addressing the first. Oh well, what else is new?

I recorded the healthcare summit that Obama and the congressional leadership of both parties had at Blair House yesterday, then watched it in the evening, and my impression is quite different.

Both sides are intensely interested in bringing down costs, both to consumers and the government. So far as I can see, Obama has solicited and included ideas from all sides, provided that health experts were able to explain how those ideas would cut overall costs without impairing medical services. If the republicans had any ideas that have been left out, I didn't hear them.

On the issue of tort reform, it is possible that the republicans want to address it differently, but I did not hear any specifics from their side about how they want to do it. Because those are state laws, Obama proposes incentives for states that reform their tort laws to protect doctors. Perhaps the republicans want the federal government to override the states directly, but they did not come out and say so clearly (that I heard, anyway). The reason they did not do so, I suspect, is that Obama would have accepted their proposal in exchange for their support.

As to the costs to consumers, the conference clarified the philosophical and practical differences between the parties. Under the proposed bill, for an insurance company to enter the exchange its policies would have to meet some minimum standards for consumer protection, and those standards would be set by the federal government. The republicans strongly object to the federal government doing that, and it is precisely the setting of those standards that republicans call "a takeover by the federal government."

Obama conceded that companies could indeed offer cheaper policies if no minimum standards were in force, and identified that issue as one of the philosophical differences with his opponents. The republicans propose to reduce costs to consumers by allowing insurance companies to write policies in states with little or no consumer protection laws and sell them nevertheless in states that do have such laws. Obama finds that unacceptable.

The other major difference on costs to consumers has to do with pooling of risk. Obama and the democrats want very large pools that include both the healthy and the sick. Because many high-risk people now can't get insurance, there would be a temporary high-risk pool (similar to pools in about twenty states today) that such people could buy into, with federal subsidies. That pool would be disbanded in 2014, once the very large pools had absorbed the high-risk people. The republicans want to maintain the high-risk pools beyond 2014 (forever I guess) to allow insurance companies to exclude high-risk people and thereby offer cheaper policies.

The conference also clarified exactly what the republicans mean when they talk about hurting seniors by "cutting medicare." Medicare Advantage was established because insurance companies contended that they could compete successfully with the more structured Medigap plans if they had more flexibility. To allow insurance companies to get started with this while they got their efficiencies going, the federal government provided subsidies that were intended to be temporary. Today about 20% of seniors have Medical Advantage plans still subsidized by the 80% of seniors who don't.

Obama wants to eliminate that direct subsidy to insurance companies and redirect the money into closing the "donut hole" in prescription drug coverage for seniors. The republicans argue that eliminating that subsidy to insurance companies is "cutting medicare" for those who have Medicare Advantage plans and Obama argues that it is redirecting money appropriately.

McCain pointed out that the Senate bill eliminates the Medicare Advantage subsidy except for people who live in Florida, a provision he considers unconscionable. Obama agreed with that, and so do I.
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
The infliction of cruelty with a good conscience is a delight to moralists — that is why they invented hell. — Bertrand Russell
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#199 User is offline   cherdanno 

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Posted 2010-February-26, 09:12

kenberg, on Feb 26 2010, 07:20 AM, said:

I am more than a little skeptical of the direction we are going in health care reform but I want to say that I do not think that I do not think that doctor's incomes are at all the problem. The table provided a few posts bac gives the average doctor's income as around $200,000 per year. It's a tough and vital job requiring extensive preparation and continuing effort to stay aware of new technology. I may well have some criticisms of the medical establishment, but $200,000 incomes is not one of them.

I am not really happy about how things are going with the reform effort. I guess I have mostly said why already,  but the brief version is that I think there are two problems, access and total cost, and the Dems have shown little interest in addressing the second. Of course the Reps have shown little interest in addressing the first. Oh well, what else is new?

Cutting costs is hard, always. But from what I read it seems like the senate bill is really trying to.
Here is an excellent summary: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archiv...-journey/30619/

As for why there is not more malpractice reform in the current bills, I think the story is this (from The Economist):

Quote

When Barack Obama informed congressional Republicans last month that he would support a controversial parliamentary move to protect health-care reform from a filibuster in the Senate, they were furious. That meant the bill could pass with a simple majority of 51 votes, eliminating the need for any GOP support. Where, they demanded, was the bipartisanship the President had promised? So, right there in the Cabinet Room, the President put a proposal on the table, according to two people who were present. Obama said he was willing to curb malpractice awards, a move long sought by Republicans that is certain to bring strong opposition from the trial lawyers who fund the Democratic Party.

What, he wanted to know, did the Republicans have to offer in return?

Nothing, it turned out. Republicans were unprepared to make any concessions, if they had any to make.

"Are you saying that LTC merits a more respectful dismissal?"
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#200 User is offline   kenberg 

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Posted 2010-February-26, 13:12

OK, I'll read this stuff. Especially the Atalntic column looks interesting. I would be delighted to say that I have misjudged here.
Ken
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