Posted 2009-December-14, 08:45
My error, I had mentally placed the king of diamonds on the board when I was replying earlier. I agree completely with what Suokko said.
A few details:
Partner has the king of spades or we are not likely to be beating this. We could well have three spade tricks. Declarer, on the auction, might well have been expecting spade shortage in the dummy. Spade tricks might go away if declarer has xx in clubs, so I will play as if three tricks in spades are possible. I need to decide who should be on lead at T4, assuming the three rounds of spades hold up.
So I am trying for three spade tricks first. If the third spade gets ruffed, I don't have to worry about what to lead a t trick 4. If I assume the third spade holds up I need to decide who should be on lead. I doubt that there is a club ruff available if the third spade holds up since declarer has long hearts. Possible, but I doubt it.
If declarer has six hearts, two small clubs and the ace of diamonds he has ten tricks. Nothing we can do. If he has five hearts, two small clubs then he will make it if he has the Q of diamonds and go down if he does not. Out of our control. Suppose he has a stiff club and AQxx of diamonds. If I lead a diamond at trick 3 he lets it ride to the jack, finesses the Q, cashes the ace, ruffs a diamond. So a diamond from my side courts disaster.
Seems best to let partner be on lead at trick 4. He needs to lead a club even if holding the king. If declarer finesses the club Q, cashes the ace of clubs pitching a diamond, and the runs five heart tricks then, with three tricks left to play, partner holds (if we are to beat it) Tx of diamonds with his club king, dummy has a club and J7 of diamonds, I hold K95 of diamonds, declare AQx, where x is less than the 9. We get a trick.
Mostly we are not beating this but if we get three spade tricks and if declarer only has one club finesse available then we might if diamonds are right and no one leads one.
Thinking just a little more about it, if declarer holds xxx/ AQxxxx/AQxx/void then that club return from partner will not be a big hit, a heart would be better. But that's his problem!
Ken