[Walddk]

Scoring: IMP

S: 4H
Lead: SK

---

Danish Premier League. West passes, North opens 1♣, you respond 1♥ and West overcalls 1♠. Your partner doubles (support), East raises to 2♠ and you finish the auction with a leap to 4♥.

West leads ♠K, overtaken by East and a spade is returned. West continues with a third spade, East discards an encouraging diamond and you ruff. When you lead a trump to dummy, West follows with the 8.

Two questions:

- 1. Do you play East for J954 by running the 10 next or do you go for the drop?

- 2. Only relevant if you play for the drop. Let's assume that West opens 2♠ to show spades and a minor and the play was the same as before. Would that change your line?

Roland

[jdonn]

Ok, changing my answer.

1. There is some inference west is short in hearts. He has 5 spades, probably 2+ clubs since he didn't lead one, and probably 4+ diamonds since east didn't bid them over the double. However those inferences aren't all certain, and it still leaves room for 5242, so I might consider the odds.

J8 with west = about 1.69%
J98 and plays the 8 = about .85%
sum = about 2.54%
singleton 8 = about 2.83%

Nothing else seems to matter (unless I'm being grosvenored like a 9 from east on the second round if I lead the ten), since if west has a lower heart a high one will appear from east. So I guess I should play for the finesse, especially given the inferences that west may have a singleton.

2. Nothing has really changed, in fact the shape inferences about west are very similar to the other auction. Still finesse.

Ok han disagrees with my percentages, where did I mess up? Somewhere I'm sure...

[Old York]

Pretty hand

I would run the 10, it may be right or wrong..... but if it is right then I would be awarded "style points" and if I was wrong then the hand would fade into obscurity

Tony

[hanp]

I was just about to ask what their 2-level openings were.

If they are playing these methods then it seems pretty clear to play for the drop. No Dane that I know will pass with KQJ109 x ??xx xxx ( or even 5152) when 2S is available to show this pattern.

Hooking is against the odds considering the suit in isolation (Q8 plus half of Q98 vs singleton 8) but I would if LHO had opened 2S. This especially holds at these colors where they might not open 2S with 5242 distribution (and some don't with 5341 for fear of missing hearts).

[hanp]

I wrote something to someone who maybe edited his post.

[manudude03]

I'll drop it always. Any time I get a suit like that and I finesse on RC, it doesn't work, guess that's how my luck goes. The 8 looks like a mandatory falsecard from J8x anyway and even if they didn't find it, I don't think stiff 8 is more likely than J8+half of J98.

If they played 2S as spades and a minor, I'll try and get count before deciding, but will probably still drop.


edit: oops, J8x is irrelevant, thanks han. When I said get count, I meant only play 1 of each , maybe I'm a little naive, but it seems like it might be worth a shot anyway.

[hanp]

The mandatory falsecard from J8x is also irrelevant, right? If you play the 10 and RHO follows with the 9, you can safely go up.

[hanp]

The best way to get the count is by letting them ruff a club but that can't be the best line. If you give up the diamond lead you risk getting shortened.

[Old York]

deleted... oops

[manudude03]

ERROR: This post lacks foundation.

[pooltuna]

Walddk, on Nov 27 2009, 01:54 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

S: 4H
Lead: SK

---

Danish Premier League. West passes, North opens 1♣, you respond 1♥ and West overcalls 1♠. Your partner doubles (support), East raises to 2♠ and you finish the auction with a leap to 4♥.

West leads ♠K, overtaken by East and a spade is returned. West continues with a third spade, East discards an encouraging diamond and you ruff. When you lead a trump to dummy, West follows with the 8.

Two questions:

- 1. Do you play East for J954 by running the 10 next or do you go for the drop?

- 2. Only relevant if you play for the drop. Let's assume that West opens 2♠ to show spades and a minor and the play was the same as before. Would that change your line?

Roland

Well at least East didn't trump the 3rd ♠ with the 9 which is a whole different problem. But may have implications to this one since it didn't occur

[nige1]

Sorry got the hand wrong

[Old York]

"East discards an encouraging diamond"

Probably wrong again, but I think East's failure to bid 1♦ with ♠Ax and a decent Diamond suit suggests a fairly balanced hand, but West does not figure to be 5/5 ♠/♦, so after the ♥10 is led, the theory of vacant spaces suggests that the Jack is with East
The third Spade seems slightly odd to me, knowing that declarer can overuff. East overtook and returned the suit, implying that he did not wish to be left on lead, so a club or diamond may have been indicated

Tony