Posted 2009-November-18, 14:19
1A: Ditto Justin. Easy to get to 7♥ with that specific start.
1B: I like 2♥ as an immediate negative. But, I mean at most one Queen, which is not exactly a "complete bust."
2: The question is a one-suit question, for the most part. I mean, technically, crossing to the diamond Ace to lead a spade, if that is your approach, risks a diamond void and ruff or, if you stick in the 10 of spades on a small card, a second diamond and trump promo. Thus, if either one has a diamond void, playing a diamond risks a ruff by a person who might also have the doubleton spade, or there might be two voids. A greater risk seems to be maybe RHO with a stiff diamond and 9x in spades, LHO with QJx. Something like that.
But, if we look at this first from a one-suit problem, our risk at 6♠ at IMP scoring is losing two spade tricks. That only happens on the play of Ace-King when spades split 4-1, and a 5-0 is hopeless anyway.
If LHO has the length, there is nothing to do here. So, we assume RHO has the length. If he has QJxx (LHO has x), then hooking the 10 works. If LHO has a stiff honor, then no spade play works. But, if RHO has QJ9x, he splits. So, small toward the 10 only works if LHO has specifically stiff 9, if seems.
So, the question seems to be whether stiff 9 to the left is more likely than specifically 9x to the left and a stiff diamond to the left. Stiff 9 seems more likely. Also in the mix, though, is anyone with two spades having a void, where plunking works better.
Stiff 9 to left, versus 9x to right with a stiff diamond OR anyone with a doubleton spade and a void in diamonds. Not sure what the percentages are there.
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