[Jlall]

benlessard, on Nov 18 2009, 11:55 PM, said:

s lead
trump won on dummy
ruff a S
AK of D, west drop and honor.
H to dummy

now you can ruff the S and play for the elimination ?

Yes, and if LHO has Hx of diamonds and RHO has the JT of clubs you now go down, that was my point.

That's why I think this comment by you:

Quote

Quote

but if LHO has Hx you still need RHO to have the JT of clubs to gain

That what i thought but you just play clubs and cover and west cannot exit in diamonds.

Was wrong. You have to commit to either ruffing out spades and playing elimination, or just playing a club to the 9 before stripping out spades.

I agree with playing elimination if LHO drops an honor on the AK of diamonds, if he has falsecarded, or if he has Hx of diamonds with RHO having JT of clubs, oh well

However if no honor falls under the AK of diamonds, I think instead of stripping out the hand you should just play a club to the 9 and then a club to the queen if LHO has shown up with 2 hearts (which requires not stripping out the hand).

[benlessard]

Sorry if im wrong again..

A of S lead.
TRump switch won in dummy.
S ruff
AK of D. Honor appear and lets say youre sure hes got 2 of them..
H to dummy.
ruff the last spade
3rd H to dummy
low club and cover if LHO has 2 diamonds hes endplay for clubs or ruff and discard

[Jlall]

benlessard, on Nov 19 2009, 01:20 AM, said:

Sorry if im wrong again..

A of S lead.
TRump switch won in dummy.
S ruff
AK of D. Honor appear and lets say youre sure hes got 2 of them..
H to dummy.
ruff the last spade
3rd H to dummy
low club and cover if LHO has 2 diamonds hes endplay for clubs or ruff and discard

Yes this is right but the problem is if LHO did have QJx of diamonds or falsecarded with Hxx/QJxx you are now in big trouble because you have no entry back to dummy having burned all 3 already. This means you will go down even if the CK is onside in these cases! So that line is extremely risky.

It seems better to play for the CK on combined with the chance LHO has QJx of diamonds and combined with LHO having the KJT of clubs rather than to go all in on LHO having Hx of diamonds, even if LHO is falsecarding 0 % of the time in diamonds.

[benlessard]

Yep i agree that why ive removed my old post your line is clearly better (playing twice to AQ9) because ill never be able to read diamonds.

[hanp]

hanp, on Nov 18 2009, 10:43 AM, said:

I don't think that the hand will stimulate A/E bridge discussion.

LOL

[gnasher]

cherdanno, on Nov 19 2009, 05:27 AM, said:

Interesting, RHO having ♣JT under Justin's assumptions is 1.8 times as likely as LHO having ♣JT or ♦QJ. I wouldn't have thought it is so dramatic.

Suppose that I wanted to confirm Cherdano's calculation, or even to do an estimate at the table. Is this method correct:

With spades 5=4, hearts 2=0 and ♣K offside, West has 5 vacant spaces to East's 9.

The chance of a given pair of cards appearing in the East hand is 9/14 * 8/13 ~= 40%.

The chance of a given pair of cards appearing in the West hand is 5/14 * 4/13 ~= 11%.

Hence the chance of West's having ♣J10 or ♦QJ is 11 + 0.89 * 11 ~= 21%

That seems to accord with Cherdano's figures, given that I haven't considered the possibility of ♣KJ on the left. Is that just a coincidence, or have I actually done the calculation correctly?