[mikegill]

Scoring: MP

p p 3♠ ?

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Seems like X, 3N, 4♥ and pass all have at least some merit. Which will it be?

[ArtK78]

Opposite a passed partner, I would pass. But I would not be surprised to find that passing is the losing choice.

[awm]

I rather like 3NT. Partner normally has some stuff here despite being a passed hand. The time to be really conservative is in third seat, since LHO could be strong and double us. In this auction usually the three others at the table will roughly divide the remaining hcp between them.

Bidding 4♥ is too unilateral, and could easily reach a very silly contract. Double is better, planning to correct a 4m bid to hearts to show a flexible hand. This is especially true because partner might've opened a club preempt if holding a really large number of clubs, so he won't usually bury us in that suit.

Nonetheless, I think 3NT is better. The third spade allows us to hold up a round, which could be key. Even if we have a big heart fit, 3NT could easily be the only making game (especially if there's a spade ruff coming in four hearts).

[jjbrr]

I think I'd pass.

[pooltuna]

mikegill, on Oct 23 2009, 01:19 PM, said:

Scoring: MP

p p 3♠ ?

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Seems like X, 3N, 4♥ and pass all have at least some merit. Which will it be?

I choose to struggle in 3NT

[Jlall]

4H, good problem.

AWM I don't see why 4H is more unilateral than 3N? 3N, 4H, X, and pass could all lead to silly results, obviously the point is to bid the one that gets you to the right contract the most often.

[karlson]

I'd go 3n also, and admit that it's a complete guess.

[eyhung]

Looks like a hand for a sim. Giving West and North passed hands, East an aggressive w/r 3rd seat 3S open (at least 9 cards in longest two, good 6-card suit or mediocre 7-card suit):

Sim results over 1000 hands:

4M makes but 3NT doesn't = 197
3NT makes but 4M doesn't = 152
Both make = 381
Both go down = 270
Average tricks in major = 9.651
Average tricks in NT = 8.502


Looks like 4H > 3NT > PASS. If you can stomach a few 500-800s (and why not, it's matchpoints), bid 4H.

Also, 3NT may be slightly demoted in the sim over real life, because the sim thinks the opponents will always find a killing club lead when that's right.

[Jlall]

I think they save more often over a 4H bid than a 3N bid also.

But... they double 4H more often than they double 3N for sure.

Also if you bid 4H and they bid 4S partner may bid 5H incorrectly sometimes (or correctly sometimes).

All of this is ignoring X of course which is a reasonable option, but I think there is too much chance of getting ourselves to 5C incorrectly if we double to justify the times that we correctly get to 5D.

[Fluffy]

3NT, I find it easy.

with 3 spades you don't wanna lose the first 2 spade tricks in 4♥, and you can control the suit in 3NT normally

[xcurt]

your sim assumption of a possible 6 card suit has a huge effect on

the chance of a spade ruff -- we want lho to have Sxx in a trump contract
the chance of them running spades in a notrump contract -- now we want lho to have Sx

you know they rate to have a good suit -- we have two of the small ones

i bid 4H against aggressive preemptors and 3nt against random preempters

[dake50]

If 3S in 3rd seat is typical my call is a toss-up. But if a deviation, likely to barrage our Hearts.

I try 4H.

[jjbrr]

i passed hoping partner might reopen sometimes. false?

[jdonn]

I double hoping to get to enough correct 3NTs and 4♥s in combination to be right, as well as the random diamond contracts and 1 time in 1000 partner passes. Obviously partner insisting on clubs is very bad but anything I can do is possibly very bad, it just happens that when double is going to be bad it's more obvious how.

[the hog]

X. Very close second choice is 4H. I don't like 3Nt with such a measly source of tricks. Pass is beyond belief, even opposite a passed hand.

[gnasher]

eyhung, on Oct 24 2009, 01:12 AM, said:

(at least 9 cards in longest two, good 6-card suit or mediocre 7-card suit)

Presumably the point of the first condition was to exclude 6222 and 7111 shapes?

[gnasher]

xcurt, on Oct 24 2009, 03:40 AM, said:

your sim assumption of a possible 6 card suit has a huge effect on

the chance of a spade ruff -- we want lho to have Sxx in a trump contract
the chance of them running spades in a notrump contract -- now we want lho to have Sx

If LHO has xx we can still stop them running the suit. It's true that we have to lose a trick in doing so, but in this sort of contract the problem is usually about having nine tricks, rather than stopping LHO getting five.

[eyhung]

gnasher, on Oct 24 2009, 01:33 AM, said:

eyhung, on Oct 24 2009, 01:12 AM, said:

(at least 9 cards in longest two, good 6-card suit or mediocre 7-card suit)

Presumably the point of the first condition was to exclude 6222 and 7111 shapes?

Good catch, I normally have a function for normal preempts that uses all three of those metrics, but this is white/red 3rd. Most people tend to be a little loose here, so I pulled it down a notch without thinking too much about the possibilities.

[MFA]

I'd try 3NT. I would make it 3NT>4♥>X>>pass. Have to stay optimistic, but it's very close as to the three possible active choices.

[mikegill]

Scoring: MP

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On this hand, 3NT probably comes out the worst, as it gives you the hardest time bidding a slam. The table action taken with this hand was X by Steve Robinson, but I also know that he feels very strongly that X then 4♥ shows a flexible hand without showing any extra values. It seems that's very likely the best bid if those are your agreements, but I'm not sure how standard an agreement that is, nor how many of the doublers on this forum were operating under that assumption.

The full auction at our table was

p p 3♠ X
4♠ 4N p 5♦
p 5♥ All pass

His partner (also a very good player) intended 4n then 5♥ as showing a slam try in hearts but Steve thought this also showed some flexibility in terms of strain - maybe a 1426 hand or something. Thoughts?