[TylerE]

Scoring: MP

(3♣) - X - (p) - p - (p)

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870 didn't score so well... Doubler had AKJx AKxx xxx xx

I saw the pass duplicated on this identical auction more than once, so I don't think this is a case of the RNG screwing me over.

[xcurt]

Well they only have 8 possible tricks in the minors between their hands, so how did they make 10 tricks? Maybe passing wasn't so unreasonable, since we're unlikely to have a game here, and they are vulnerable.

[cherdanno]

I have been wondering about GIB's partscore penalty passes. Maybe GIB's simulations are too random, of course, the variance is quite high on these decisions so you would need a lot of simulations to get a good estimate whether pass is a long term winner. But maybe it is us humans who are biased, because we remember the big disasters (-870) more than the more frequent smaller gains (+200 instead of -100, +500 instead of +170, +800 instead of +620).

[TylerE]

xcurt, on Oct 16 2009, 10:32 PM, said:

Well they only have 8 possible tricks in the minors between their hands, so how did they make 10 tricks?  Maybe passing wasn't so unreasonable, since we're unlikely to have a game here, and they are vulnerable.

All the major suit cards are on my left. Declarer took 7 clubs (AKQJxxx), the A♦. the Q♠, and a ♥ trick.

[barmar]

That's a spectacularly unlucky lie of the cards, you have to admit.

On the other hand, if GIB were programmed with Mel Colchamiro's Rule of 9, it would have known not to pass. You add the number of cards you hold in opener's suit, the number of honors you hold in the suit, and the level of the auction; if it's 9 or more you can convert the takeout double to penalty.

In this case 4+1+3 = 8, so you should take it out. It looks like 3♦ should make.

But I've also seen Mel break his own rule in "It's Your Call" in the ACBL Bulletin.

[Fluffy]

TylerE, on Oct 17 2009, 02:23 PM, said:

xcurt, on Oct 16 2009, 10:32 PM, said:

Well they only have 8 possible tricks in the minors between their hands, so how did they make 10 tricks?  Maybe passing wasn't so unreasonable, since we're unlikely to have a game here, and they are vulnerable.

All the major suit cards are on my left. Declarer took 7 clubs (AKQJxxx), the A♦. the Q♠, and a ♥ trick.

yeah surprising that they took ♠Q and ♥Q without losing 4 tricks, and without you ruffing the third round eiter