phil_20686, on Oct 20 2009, 11:06 AM, said:
I disagree completely with all those who win the ace of spades. IMO there is approximately a zero percent chance that an expert level player will convert from 6h to 6N opposite a cue that is likely shortage without a spade stop. I'd sayy it's 100% that west has the K fo spades. Partner may have led from the Q in which case it may look like ducking doesnt matter, but it will control what hand guards the suit in the event of a squeeze. It will also rectify the count.
The auction is actually very revealing, in regular precision i think declarer has shown a 18-19 NT. I imagine he has enough to in hearts to make sure the hearts are running and the kc for teh same reason re conversion. He must also have the ace of diamonds.
Kxxx
AQx
Axx
Kxx
+ one more card
Since the Q of of clubs will give hin 12 on top, as will the QJ of spades, i think i will give him the spade Q.
KQxx
AQx
Axx
Kxx
the shape is somewhat unclear besides the fact that he seems to have 3-4 spades. On this layout winning the ace gives him his 12th trick. With this type of hand declarer has 11 tricks and will attempt to squeeze someone for his 12th as he has no other real options.
It must be safe then to pitch all your diamonds. Declarer could have 5 clubs conceivably. If declarer has the k of diamodns to go with the k s kc as and a h he has 12 on top. Same goes for the Q of clubs. Partner will realise he can let go of his clubs and keep only diamonds and a spade.
EDIT corrected terrible typing
It is easy to construct hands where declarer has the
♠ King and ducking at trick one gives declarer the contract.
For example if declarer holds
♠KJxx
♥AQ
♦AKxx
♣Q9x
declarer simply cashes one diamond and runs heart when you duck. He has always 12 tricks
Declarer last discard was the
♠ king, so you had to keep the
♠ ace
Declarer has Q9 in
♣ and Ax in
♦
You had to keep J10 in
♣ to avoid a finesse against your partner and had to come down to a singleton queen of
♦ .
What are your partners last 4 cards?
He has to keep Kx in
♣ and Tx in
♦, but gets now thrown in with a
♦ to lead from the king of
♣.
If you win trick one and return anything but a
♦ I do not see how declarer could come to 12 tricks on this layout.
Rainer Herrmann