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A few MP probs from the last few days

#1 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 15:53

MPs - either on line or IRL:

1. xx AJTx Q7xxx Ax - opps bid 1♣ - 3N. Your lead?

2. QTxx Q98xx AQTx void - (opps silent) 1♣ - 1♥ - 2♣ - ?
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#2 User is offline   pooltuna 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 17:29

Phil, on Oct 5 2009, 04:53 PM, said:

MPs - either on line or IRL:

1. xx AJTx Q7xxx Ax - opps bid 1♣ - 3N. Your lead?

2. QTxx Q98xx AQTx void - (opps silent) 1♣ - 1♥ - 2♣ - ?

1) not wild about leading a minor on this auction but nevertheless I lead 4th best ♦

2) Time to start bailing while the boat is still afloat
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 17:51

Phil, on Oct 5 2009, 04:53 PM, said:

MPs - either on line or IRL:
1. xx AJTx Q7xxx Ax - opps bid 1♣ - 3N. Your lead?
2. QTxx Q98xx AQTx void - (opps silent) 1♣ - 1♥ - 2♣ - ?
IMO
  • ♥ = 10, ♦ = 8, ♠ = 4, ♣ = 1.
    Opponents may have a lot of ♦ but your side will usually gave a majority of ♥. Dummy is quite liely to have a long minor, so there is an argument for leading your better major on such auctions.
  • 3♦ (fit jump) = 11, 2♦ = 10, 4♥ = 9, 4♣ (splinter)= 8.
    Opponents may bid 5♣ over 4♥. A splinter may help them in the play; but 2/3♦ may help partner. I think this hand is an argument for fit jumps (but I don't play them).

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#4 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 18:03

I like a ♥ lead on board 1 because it's relatively safe and it will also often beat it.

I think I pass on board 2 since I see no guarantees of a better contract. On the contrary.

IMO nige1 read the 2nd problem wrong.
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#5 User is offline   Lobowolf 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 18:10

A diamond and a pass, for me. I'll take the sure entries and the 5-card suit. There are some + factors for a heart lead, but they don't quite win me over.

The second hand probably has a better spot (or two) than 2♣, but there's no guarantee that we're getting there.
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#6 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 18:34

gwnn, on Oct 5 2009, 07:03 PM, said:

I like a ♥ lead on board 1 because it's relatively safe and it will also often beat it. I think I pass on board 2 since I see no guarantees of a better contract. On the contrary. IMO nige1 read the 2nd problem wrong.

Thank you gwnn. I did misread the problem. I agree _P = 10.
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#7 User is offline   nigel_k 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 18:51

1. Heart J or 10 according to system. A diamond would be ok but is not necessarily safe and needs more from partner.

2. 2♦. I tend to agree that 2♣ will be the best contract we can reach more than 50% of the time. But the spot cards persuade me to move as the field will keep bidding on this so playing 2♣ could be a bottom if wrong.
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#8 User is offline   xcurt 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 20:14

On the first, I'll lead the conventional heart lower honor. You really have too many small diamonds to lead a diamond and you're a favorite be getting in first when declarer attacks clubs, in which case avoiding the heart to avoid blowing a trick means your side will probably never attack hearts.

On the second, I'll bid 2D, and pass 2NT. Of course, if partner bids something else, we're gin. I'll be shocked if we are making 4C, and I like my chances of taking 8 tricks with this.

Both of these seem like fairly standard matchpoint positions.
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#9 User is offline   quiddity 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 20:35

1. small D
2. pass
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#10 User is offline   MarkDean 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 21:07

1. Definitely a diamond for me.

2. Pass, but I would not be shocked to find that 2NT works out better on average.
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#11 User is offline   cherdanno 

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Posted 2009-October-05, 22:08

gwnn, on Oct 5 2009, 07:03 PM, said:

I like a ♥ lead on board 1 because it's relatively safe and it will also often beat it.

I don't particularly hate a ♥ lead, but calling it safe?? It surely does not look safe to me!
I would lead a ♦.

I would probably bid 2♦ on the second (assuming it is an artificial force) and pass whatever partner bids.
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#12 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2009-October-06, 06:34

I have a five-card suit and at least two entries. I lead it.

On the second one I'd pass. Maybe LHO will balance.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#13 User is offline   andy_h 

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Posted 2009-October-06, 07:46

Diamond and pass.
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#14 User is offline   gwnn 

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Posted 2009-October-06, 08:34

I wanted to say that a heart will on average blow less tricks than a diamond lead, given the auction, do you disagree with that Arend?
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#15 User is offline   mikegill 

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Posted 2009-October-06, 08:40

I think I would lead a spade here - I just don't want to blow a trick and both diamond and heart leads seem likely to do that. Partner is marked with 4+ spades and he's behind a 4-card spade suit if it exists in the opponents' hands. Partner could actually have 0, and he will probably average about 3 HCP. Hopefully my two aces means that I will have time to switch later if I need to.

On the second one I would try to improve the contract by bidding 2♦. If partner bids anything but 3♣ I'm happy.
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#16 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-October-06, 09:13

Thanks all.

On the first, the opposing hands looked like:

Scoring: MP


Low diamond conceded 10 tricks which was fairly common. Middle heart gets you the same, but a low heart gets you four tricks and a top.

On the 2nd I passed. Pard had the mother of all 2♣ rebids: KJx Kx x KQJTxxx. However, clubs were 5-1 and the ♦K was off so 110 was only slightly below average.
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#17 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2009-October-07, 06:27

gwnn, on Oct 5 2009, 07:03 PM, said:

IMO nige1 read the 2nd problem wrong.

IMO nige1 read the 1st problem wrong(ly) too.

Diamond and pass for me.
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