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some card play problems #2 some math required

#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-September-26, 18:16

IMPs EW Vul

♠xx
♥9x
♦AK8xx
♣6543

♠Q
♥AK10xxx
♥Q4
♣KJ102


1♥-(1♠)-X-(3[SP)
4♥-ps-ps-ps

[sp]A lead, RHO plays ♠J
♠K continued RHO playing ♠9

on ♥AK LHO follows with 2 small, RHO with small and queen.
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#2 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2009-September-26, 18:56

Our choices seem to be either cross to dummy twice in diamonds to play clubs up, or to play for 3-3 diamonds (with doubleton ♣Q onside as an extra chance).

If we want to play for 3-3 diamonds we have to play another trump - and if RHO wins and returns a club we still have to guess the clubs.

If we want to play for the clubs to behave (3-2 with the Q onside) it doesn't hurt to play a 3rd trump now.

So in either case I play another trump now - pitching a club on the trump, and another club from dummy if a spade is returned. Who won the trump, and what do they play?
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#3 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2009-September-26, 19:16

Ruff the 2nd ♠, cash ♥AK, Concede a ♥, Ruff the ♠ return, cash ♦QKA. Claim if ♦ break. Otherwise, if you count RHO for 3+♣, then play ♣K, else finesse ♣J. I'm not good at sums, but this feels better than 2 X ♣ finesse.
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-September-27, 03:51

how do you count spades nige?

LHO has ♥J and will return a spade
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Posted 2009-September-27, 04:25

♦QKA for me too.

With the opponents having 10 spades and only bidding to 3♠ I am guessing there are no singletons around. Crossing to dummy twice and playing clubs wins when RHO is 4243 with ♣Q, but playing on diamonds works when RHO is 5233, or 5242 with the ♣Q (or 4234, but that shape gives LHO a singleton). Depends on the opponents of course, but some people won't bid 3♠ vulnerable on something like JTxx Qx Jxxx Qxx.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#6 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2009-September-27, 04:45

Fluffy, on Sep 27 2009, 04:51 AM, said:

how do you count spades nige? LHO has ♥J and will return a spade

You don't always get a reliable count. But often it will be more than adequate. For example If LHO is the defender with 4+♦, you should certainly play him for singleton ♣Q -- especially when you find out that he has 3♥.
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