[gnasher]

Scoring: IMP

   p-p-1♦
p-1♠-p-2♠
x-p-2N-p
3C-x-p-p
p

---

Lead: ♠3 (4th best). RHO plays the 2 (UDCA unless LouisG says it wasn't)

Nobody seems to want to bid as badly as I did, but maybe I can talk someone into playing the same way as me.

2NT showed two places to play.

You may notice that the vulnerability has changed, because I was wrong about that too.

[MFA]

I would just start to work on diamonds.

[cherdanno]

MFA, on Jul 21 2009, 04:15 PM, said:

I would just start to work on diamonds.

Me too, although I am waiting for louisg to correct the dummy before i play to trick one

[gnasher]

That's what I did, and with about as much analysis.

Instead, how about working out what their likely shapes are, and then considering how the play is likely to go?

[quiddity]

This looks pretty hopeless. From the first trick I think West has the SK; he probably has 4 clubs to the Q, and he probably has a red honor. If this is the case, then i can count 2 spades, 4 clubs, 1 diamond, 1 spade ruff. I guess the last trick has to come from hearts, so I need to play RHO for the heart AK and I think I need 3-3 hearts. Maybe LHO has something like Kxxx Txx Ax Q9xx.

In that layout it looks like we have to start hearts early, before West gets a chance to discard on one of East's diamonds. We could try finessing C8 followed by a heart to the Q. Even then, East can win and get off 3 rounds of diamonds; maybe we can hope for LHO to have ♦H8 or ♦H9...

[louisg]

cherdanno, on Jul 21 2009, 04:40 PM, said:

MFA, on Jul 21 2009, 04:15 PM, said:

I would just start to work on diamonds.

Me too, although I am waiting for louisg to correct the dummy before i play to trick one

Go ahead, it looks OK to me

And yes, EW was playing UDCA (and dummy played the ♠J at trick one -- have to add something to the original post after all ).

[rhm]

gnasher, on Jul 21 2009, 03:45 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP

   p-p-1♦
p-1♠-p-2♠
x-p-2N-p
3C-x-p-p
p

---

Lead: ♠3 (4th best).  RHO plays the 2 (UDCA unless LouisG says it wasn't)

Nobody seems to want to bid as badly as I did, but maybe I can talk someone into playing the same way as me.

2NT showed two places to play.

You may notice that the vulnerability has changed, because I was wrong about that too.

You must loose 4 top tricks in the red suit.
To avoid loosing 3 tricks in ♥ we must assume East to have both ♥ top honors
Giving West double we need to assume that West has one top honor in ♦ plus the ♠ king and the ♣ queen.
If West has 4 clubs he must have a doubleton in a red suit.
If it is in ♥ and you do not draw trumps you will incur a ruff, but if you draw trumps they will have time to establish spade tricks.
It follows that you can make the contract only if ♥ are 3-3.

Play a ♣ to the 8. (you can make against a singleton ♣ 2 , 5 or 7 with East)
Then you should play a heart (not a ♦) from dummy.
You aim for 5 trump trick (a spade ruff in hand), 2 spade tricks and either 2 tricks in ♥ or both red queens.
Against 4 clubs with West you can make the contract only against best defense if West is 4=3=2=4 with K8 or K9 in ♦. Otherwise the defense can force the dummy.
The defense plays 3 rounds of ♦ and should you put up the ♦ queen, West discards his third ♥

If you make the contract do not complain for some time about hard luck

Rainer Herrmann

[pooltuna]

lead a ♦ at trick 2

[rhm]

pooltuna, on Jul 24 2009, 09:08 AM, said:

lead a ♦ at trick 2

Give LHO something like

♠K653
♥T43
♦K9
♣Q972

If you play a ♦ at trick 2 the defense plays 3 rounds of ♦ and LHO discards a ♥, threatening to ruff a ♥ unless declarer draws trumps.
Either way declarer will loose 3 ♥ tricks and 2♦ tricks

One down -200

Rainer Herrmann

[gnasher]

I forgot to post a conclusion to this one.

LHO had approximately Kxxx A10 xxx Q952. If you play a diamond at trick two, they'll arrange to play three rounds of hearts and two rounds of diamonds, LHO pitching a spade, then a fourth round of hearts. You have to ruff that with the king, LHO pitching another spade, and now you can't pick up the trumps without suffering an overruff, so you go for 500.

To avoid this ignominy, you have to take a trump finesse at trick two - running the jack is good for -1 against any likely layout.

Rhm would also have escaped for -200, because ♣7 is singleton. Against Kxxx A10 xxx Q972, however, he would have gone for 500, losing a trump promotion when RHO plays a fourth round of hearts.

I don't think we can combine avoiding -500 with Rainer's line to make it. As the line to make it requires very specific cards, and the risk of -500 is significant, I think you should play safe for one down and -2 IMPs.

I went for 500.

[MFA]

gnasher, on Aug 12 2009, 07:58 PM, said:

I forgot to post a conclusion to this one.

LHO had approximately Kxxx A10 xxx Q952.  If you play a diamond at trick two, they'll arrange to play three rounds of hearts and two rounds of diamonds, LHO pitching a spade, then a fourth round of hearts.  You have to ruff that with the king, LHO pitching another spade, and now you can't pick up the trumps without suffering an overruff, so you go for 500.

To avoid this ignominy, you have to take a trump finesse at trick two - running the jack is good for -1 against any likely layout.

Rhm would also have escaped for -200, because ♣7 is singleton.  Against Kxxx A10 xxx Q972, however, he would have gone for 500, losing a trump promotion when RHO plays a fourth round of hearts.

I don't think we can combine avoiding -500 with Rainer's line to make it.  As the line to make it requires very specific cards, and the risk of -500 is significant, I think you should play safe for one down and -2 IMPs.

I went for 500.

If they play that defense, I think I should be allowed to reconsider. After East has shown ♦AK, ♥KJ, I'm going to play a spade to the ace. Then I can finesse twice in trumps and exit in spades, endplaying west.

Isn't that correct?

[gnasher]

East led a spade to your queen at trick one. Then you led a diamond, and the defence cashed five red-suit tricks. Losing another trick after that would be -500.

[MFA]

gnasher, on Aug 13 2009, 12:52 AM, said:

East led a spade to your queen at trick one. Then you led a diamond, and the defence cashed five red-suit tricks. Losing another trick after that would be -500.

Ah yes, sorry, should have refreshed my memory about the hand before I posted.
I agree that it's down two then.