[kgr]

AQJ9 vs xx
You play small to the Q and that loses to the K.
 
Now you can finesse the 9 (..or is this called finesse the T?) or play AJ
1) play AJ:
Wins if East has KTx (4,44%), KT (0,73%)
2) finesse the 9:
Wins if West has Txxx (8.88%)
 
But suitplay says to play AJ after finsse of Q lost to the K? Am I missing a combination that makes a difference?
 
 
 
 
...This will be something stupid...

[Stephen Tu]

Finessing the 9 also wins if West started Txxxx or Txxxxx.

Suitplay's point though, is that with Txxx opposite Kxx, East is supposed to *duck* the first round. This should induce you to play low to the J again, then he wins and his partner scores the T. If you decide to hook 9 2nd round then of course you start to lose to a lot of tx, Txx, combinations offside.

So hook the 9 if your opps don't duck enough.

[kgr]

Stephen Tu, on Aug 2 2009, 09:23 PM, said:

Finessing the 9 also wins if West started Txxxx or Txxxxx.

...Correction for OP: Now you can finesse the 9 or play AJ
1) play AJ:
Wins if East has KTx (4.44%), KT (0.73%)
2) finesse the 9:
Wins if West has Txxx (8.88%), Txxxx (3.63%), Txxxxx (0.48%)

Stephen Tu, on Aug 2 2009, 09:23 PM, said:

Suitplay's point though, is that with Txxx opposite Kxx, East is supposed to *duck* the first round. This should induce you to play low to the J again, then he wins and his partner scores the T. If you decide to hook 9 2nd round then of course you start to lose to a lot of tx, Txx, combinations offside.

Good program

Stephen Tu, on Aug 2 2009, 09:23 PM, said:

So hook the 9 if your opps don't duck enough.

1) 4.44 + 0.73 = 5.17
2) Suppose defence ducks as often from Kx as from Kxx then probzbly of finesse 9 is better:
8.88 * x + 3.63 * x + 0.48
with x the percentage that defence ducks the K.
=> defence should duck at least 37.5 % of the time. If not then it is better to finesse the 9 if the Q lost to the K (I guess that most experts will finesse the 9 against unknown opps?)

[Stephen Tu]

(1-x) not x. 63.5% if you are making assumption equal duck % from Kxx and Kx, which is probably not realistic.

[kgr]

Stephen Tu, on Aug 3 2009, 01:24 AM, said:

(1-x) not x. 63.5% if you are making assumption equal duck % from Kxx and Kx, which is probably not realistic.

Thanks for the answers Stephen.
Probably I will never play this one from the top after the finesse lost.