[mtvesuvius]

AKQTxxx
xxx
xx
x

(1♦) - P - (1♥) - 4♠
(5♥) - P - (6♥) - All Pass

NV vs V

Your lead?

[Cascade]

Noone said a spade isn't cashing so I lead a top spade. If partner will give me count then I lead the appropriate card.

[Jlall]

yeah a club is really obvious.

[zheddh]

Spade Ace

[Codo]

Club should be much better then spade.

[mtvesuvius]

Partner led a spade, which was ruffed, and when I won my ♥, it was a lost cause.

I thought this was an obv ♣ lead.

[Fluffy]

why didn't partner raise?

[Lobowolf]

I was kibbing this one, and I was going to post this hand, too.

[the hog]

Cascade, on Jul 16 2009, 11:30 AM, said:

Noone said a spade isn't cashing so I lead a top spade. If partner will give me count then I lead the appropriate card.

I agree. I think a c lead is masterminding after the fact.

[aguahombre]

on the forum I lead the club, otherwise no-way.

[Cascade]

Jlall, on Jul 16 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

[Codo]

Cascade, on Jul 17 2009, 02:21 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jul 16 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

This is not necessary.

Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade?

No second spade trick, this should be a lock.

So you need partner to have a trick in another suit.

Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

[gnasher]

Codo, on Jul 17 2009, 08:24 AM, said:

Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work.

[Cascade]

Codo, on Jul 17 2009, 07:24 PM, said:

Cascade, on Jul 17 2009, 02:21 PM, said:

Jlall, on Jul 16 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

This is not necessary.

Which second trick do you expect to make when you lead a spade?

No second spade trick, this should be a lock.

So you need partner to have a trick in another suit.

Of course it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void.

You play in a tough game if your opponents never bid a slam off two cashing tricks.

Also after I take my spade trick I may have a good idea where we should go (or not passively) to get our second trick.

[Jlall]

Cascade, on Jul 17 2009, 12:21 AM, said:

Jlall, on Jul 16 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

yeah a club is really obvious.

Were you kibitzing too?

Don't be bitter about the fact that you will never be remotely close to being as good as me!

[Cascade]

Bitter isn't that the name of a beer?

Is that what you were drinking when you were kibitzing?

[Codo]

gnasher, on Jul 17 2009, 04:44 PM, said:

Those aren't the relevant probabilities. For the club lead to be right, you don't just need there to be a spade void: you also need the club lead to work.

...because?

When a club lead was wrong you can still have hopes that you can beat the contract. This is less certain if the spade lead fails.

[gnasher]

Consider these three categories of deal:
(1) Deals where a spade is cashing but will be discarded if we don't cash it, and we have another trick somewhere.
(2) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead works.
(3) Deals where a spade isn't cashing, and a club lead doesn't work either.

When you said "it is possible that your lead gives them the chances to discard their spade loser before you regain the lead, but this is less likely then the possibility that one of them has a spade void", you seemed to be comparing
  (1) with (2) + (3)
whereas the relevant comparison is of
  (1) with (2)