gnasher, on Jul 11 2009, 05:40 PM, said:
In fact, I'm having trouble thinking of a layout where both contracts make.
I didn't analyze the hand thoroughly when I said both sides make their respective major suit part-scores, but I didn't say it was cold. When you look at all four hands, it didn't appear that defense had five easy tricks in either contract. And I will be the first to admit that the line of play to make 3
♠ is non-trivial. But if the defense can not beat you easily I think a good declarer has the advantage on such hands.
I think making 3
♥ is a lot easier. My feeling is that 3
♥ is likely to make a lot more often than 3
♠, but that 3
♠ is more likely to fail by one trick rather than two or more. Anyway here's how the actual lay-out was.
Playing in 3
♠, let's say you get a small heart lead, win in dummy, take a winning trump finesse, pull three rounds, the 2
♥ bidder showing up with
♠Qxx.
Your combined
♦ holding is K8xx opp Q9x, so they can't attack the suit profitably if the J and T are divided. Also you do have
♣J8xx opp K9x. Let's assume the
♣A is with LHO as RHO may have opened 1
♥ otherwise. Now you succeed whenever you find RHO with a short honor in
♣s, stiff or doubleton Q or T and make a winning guess. He obliges by holding the stiff
♣T.
As for defense vs 3
♥, you lead a high
♠ and looking at xx J93 AJx AQxxx shift to a trump in a hurry, as partner's card says he has a stiff or doubleton
♠. Partner takes the Ace and returns a trump. Declarer wins in hand and plays the
♠Q, you win and shift to a
♦ hoping your partner has the Ten, but no luck. Partner plays the
♦K and the last trump. Declarer takes a long time to play out the rest, as you wait for the inevitable.
Seeking input from anyone who doesn't frequently "wtp", "Lol" or post to merely "Agree with ..."