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An American in Paris Tour de France

Poll: Is Lance still strong enough to win Tour de France once again? (28 member(s) have cast votes)

Is Lance still strong enough to win Tour de France once again?

  1. Yes (8 votes [28.57%])

    Percentage of vote: 28.57%

  2. No (14 votes [50.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 50.00%

  3. Don't know (6 votes [21.43%])

    Percentage of vote: 21.43%

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#41 User is offline   el mister 

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Posted 2009-July-22, 15:55

It was really all about seeing off Wiggins today. Contador has it in the bag in any case, but Wiggins is a world class time trialer and it's one less thing for Contador to worry about now that Wiggins is a ways back. Wiggins will overhaul F. Schleck tomorrow and maybe A. Schlek if he is in form.

It was great to see Thor take off the green skirt and assume the green jersey today. Really epic riding from an 80kg cyclist up the hills. He basically showed Cavandish who is the strong man on the Tour, and that being the fastest sprinter is not enough to claim the green jersey.
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#42 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2009-July-22, 17:13

I don't think that Contador needed anybody today. If he wanted he would have left the Schleck brothers behind.
It is more that Armstrong and Kloden need Contador more then the other way around. Contador realised that, but not in time (He attacked and saw that Kloden was the main victim. Then he stopped his attack, but the damage to his team mate was done). That could well cost them 2nd and 3th place if the loose more time on Saturday.
...In my opinion this is also the real intention of the Schleck brothers: getting a podium place (they don't really believe they can get 1st).
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#43 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2009-July-22, 17:53

kgr, on Jul 22 2009, 06:13 PM, said:

I don't think that Contador needed anybody today. If he wanted he would have left the Schleck brothers behind.
It is more that Armstrong and Kloden need Contador more then the other way around. Contador realised that, but not in time (He attacked and saw that Kloden was the main victim. Then he stopped his attack, but the damage to his team mate was done).

Reflecting this moment...I ask me what was Contadors primary plan? He decided to attack, he did it, tried it alone. Did he think Klöden is able to follow Schlecks for sure? He knew both brothers are in excellent condition. Why did he try to escape so late ,not far from the last top, knowing the probability they catch him at the down hill was high.

Tja, damage to Astana happened, but is it damage to Contador? He knows how strong Klöden can be in time-trial, Schlecks have not a reputation for it.

Robert
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#44 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 03:23

EDIT because everything I said was trash.

I saw a bit of yesterday's stage and I was a bit disapointed by comentators, they were overjustifying Contador's behaviour, I don't know of this super humans, but if Iwas riding a bike liek they do I wouldn't have any energies left to think how an attack might affect everyone if I try. I have enough thinking if I feel strong or not.
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#45 User is offline   Cascade 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 05:18

To me Contador's body language suggested that he thought he had done the wrong thing. When he realized that Kloden had not come with him he was looking around for a long time as if he was hoping that Kloden could rejoin.
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#46 User is offline   se12sam 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 05:50

el mister, on Jul 22 2009, 10:55 PM, said:

It was really all about seeing off Wiggins today. Contador has it in the bag in any case, but Wiggins is a world class time trialer and it's one less thing for Contador to worry about now that Wiggins is a ways back. Wiggins will overhaul F. Schleck tomorrow and maybe A. Schlek if he is in form.

I think Astana team used a thoughtful strategy in the Wiggins dismantling saga. For the last 3-4 stages, Contador has been carefully "bigging up" Wiggins saying "he is the main threat", "he seemed very comfortable" etc. I'd guess after all the praise Wiggins is more demoralized than he would otherwise be after yesterday's stage!

But, to the best of my recollections, Wiggins has not INITIATED AN ATTACK EVEN ONCE. He probably does not know his strengths fully, or is in the wrong team -- with a poor tactician / team director. Contador has taken full advantage of this. Now Wiggins is left precarious, having to depend a lot on what happens in today's time trials and (later) at Mt Ventoux

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It was great to see Thor take off the green skirt and assume the green jersey today.

Absolutely brilliant comment!
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#47 User is offline   vuroth 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 07:33

Wow, no idea why people are being so harsh on Thor. Thor's been a much more complete rider than Cavendish, and deserved the green even before yesterday's brilliance.

Wiggins is a complete unknown quantity - to others, to his coach, to himself. It's one thing to be able to climb well, it's quite another to be able to handle violent accelerations on a mountain, and quite another to do repeated climbs. Wiggins showed yesterday that he's just not up to accelerations on steep inclines. To be fair, though, the others have years of experience on him on this - even the younger riders like Andy Schleck.

I also agree that Contador made a tactical error yesterday. He clearly spent a lot of time looking for Kloden after he dropped him. Contador expected to drop at least one Schleck, but failed to do so. In a way, it was a lot like his attack on Arcalis - it looked impressive, but didn't win him much, and may have cost him with his team.
Still decidedly intermediate - don't take my guesses as authoritative.

"gwnn" said:

rule number 1 in efficient forum reading:
hanp does not always mean literally what he writes.
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#48 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 11:05

Surprisingly for me, how clear Contador beat several time-trial specialists at the relatively plain and short stage.

Robert
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#49 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 12:26

Aberlour10, on Jul 23 2009, 12:05 PM, said:

Surprisingly for me, how clear Contador beat several time-trial specialists at the relatively plain and short stage.

Robert

For me too. Quite a performance! Contador has truly dominated this tour.
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#50 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 13:59

PassedOut, on Jul 23 2009, 01:26 PM, said:

For me too. Quite a performance! Contador has truly dominated this tour.

He doesn't need it for helding the maillot jaune, but I suppose he plans a "Devils Ride" ;) at the Mont Ventoux, to demonstrate all once again who is the boss in todays cycling.

I am curious about who will follow Armstrong to his new team RadioShack, Klöden, or Leipheimer?, maybe both?

Robert
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#51 User is offline   el mister 

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Posted 2009-July-23, 15:18

Alberto was immense today. Like Aberlour I'm wondering if he'll throw it down on Saturday just to show who's boss ( not that anyone is in any doubt).

I was pulling for Wiggins to lay down a dominant performance today and he came up a little short. I saw him interviewed and he was putting a very brave face on things, saying he felt great, was riding smooth and just hit a headwind on the final stretch of the TT. His body language said differently, though - I think he must have had a horrible last 5km. Make the race for third exciting - think it will be tough for Wiggins to compete tbh, but he's had the Tour of a lifetime in any case.

Alberto's performance today will really demoralise Andy Schleck. Not just for this tour particularly, but the Tours of the next five years. Andy S is magnificent in the mountains, and can expect to contest matters with Alberto on the climbs - but how much can he realistically expect to improve his TT to be competitive? Barring the obvious bad news that can strike successful cyclists, it looks like we're entering the Alberto era of dominant TdF cycling.
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#52 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2009-July-24, 10:23

So, it remains only arrival at the top of the Mount Painful, all is possible between places 2-7 a day before champagne drinking on the road to Paris.

Mount Painful

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#53 User is offline   Aberlour10 

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Posted 2009-July-25, 14:14

gwnn, on Jul 10 2009, 11:02 AM, said:

I'd be surprised if he finished the whole race.

Lance is not "The Boss" anymore, but he really showed the lion heart at the Mont Ventoux today, fought successfully for every single meter against all these strong young guys. Respect for it!

See you all next year, same time, same place...maybe under topic "An American returns to Paris" ;)

Robert
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#54 User is offline   PassedOut 

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Posted 2009-July-25, 15:49

Aberlour10, on Jul 25 2009, 03:14 PM, said:

gwnn, on Jul 10 2009, 11:02 AM, said:

I'd be surprised if he finished the whole race.

Lance is not "The Boss" anymore, but he really showed the lion heart at the Mont Ventoux today, fought successfully for every single meter against all these strong young guys. Respect for it!

See you all next year, same time, same place...maybe under topic "An American returns to Paris" :D

Robert

Yes, it was great to see the top riders competing to the end! Look forward to next year!
The growth of wisdom may be gauged exactly by the diminution of ill temper. — Friedrich Nietzsche
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#55 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2009-July-25, 16:07

I admit I would be glad to make it to km 6 (note the flattish bit at km 5) of this mountain.
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