Posted 2009-July-01, 18:34
To make 11 tricks other than by trying to drop the HK, we need one of the SQ falling or the successful heart finesse, plus some kind of endposition that makes another spade trick or heart trick, either the third or fourth round of spades depending on whether or not we dropped the SQ, or the second or third round of hearts, depending or not on whether or not we took a successful heart finesse.
RHO probably would have opened 1NT with QT(x), Kx(x), xx, AKQJxx, and we can't make the overtrick against that hand anwyay since LHO guards the fourth round of spades and RHO guards the second round of hearts. RHO has to have at least one of the missing major suit honors, else LHO has an 8 count and would have bid something since he holds 44 in the majors or one major with at least 5 cards.
So we need to consider the following positions where RHO does not have the stiff HK.
RHO has both -- see above
RHO has the HK -- he just clings to the HK
RHO has the SQ -- we can play for RHO to have SQT tight or for RHO to have Ten-doubleton of hearts.
If RHO has QT, xxx, xx, AKQJxx we can run the trumps and LHO is squeezed. Doing so almost always costs the contract, so it's out. Note that I could squeeze LHO the same way when he has the SQ also, but he can't have that hand on the bidding, and the same risk of going down is attached to cashing off the trumps.
However RHO has QTx, Tx, xx, AKQJxx, we can smack the HT to make 3 heart tricks to go with 2 spade tricks. So which is more likely:
RHO: QTx, Tx, xx, AKQJxx LHO: xxxx, Kxxx, QJx, xx
or
RHO: QTxx, K, xx, AKQJxx LHO: xxx, xxxxx, QJx, xx
I wouldn't bid over 1D with either LHO hand, so not much there.
I would bid 1C ... 2C with either RHO hand in this auction, so not much there either.
The former case is about twice as likely, however, since there are 5 ways to deal the spade spots x 4 ways to deal the heart spots, vs 10 ways to deal the spade spots and one way to deal the heart spots. I'll cash one trump throwing a spade, then if I haven't learned anything I'll run the HJ, and if it's covered I'll play to drop the HT. If it's ducked, I'll cash all but one trump throwing spades before deciding what to do.
Note that I get a little vigorish if LHO passed with xxx, Kxxxx, QJx, xx since the HT falls on the first round of the suit.
I certainly wouldn't take the time to work this out at the table in an online friendly match, though.
By the way, your mid-hand diagram has an extra spade in the north hand.
Edit/Edit -- hopefully fixed all the minor errors -- the main point being I'll cash one trump not two throwing a spade. Can't bring the hearts down to A9 tight since I'm trying to win a 3rd round trick with the H9.
This is a lot of work for one IMP.
"It is not enough to be a good player. You must also play well." -- Tarrasch
(P)-Pass-(1♣)-1♦
(P)- 1♠ - (2♣)- 2♥
(P) - 3♦ - all pass
T1. W ♣T-3-A-2
T2. E ♣K-9-7-6
T3. E ♣Q-♦9-♦J-♣8
T4. W ♠5-6-T-A
T5. S ♦A-5-2-T
T6. S ♦K-Q-6-4