[firmit]

From real life. First table against opps.
Contract is 3nt. W opened 2S. I have 9, if this clubsuit breaks:

K10873
-
AQ5

I have communication. From table, I play the 3 to A, seeing a small card from E and 9 from W.
I need 5 clubs to make 9. You have no stoppers left in spades. How should I play my clubs? Would it make any difference if east's card was the 4? Is this really a wtp?

[Hanoi5]

You gave some information but surely not enough. How about the other suits? What's the complete hand? You say opponents shouldn't be trusted, does this mean that the 2♠ could have been made on 5 spades?

[firmit]

If I remember correctly:
Kx
Tx
AKxx
K10875
-
QJ
AJxx
J10xx
AQx

Spade lead. Then club A.

[Phil]

It is just a function of the ability of the opponents. Unless they were really good, I would take the 9 at face value, so the relevant holdings are 9 or J9. While J9 is slightly more likely than 9, its probably a tossup if LHO led from 5+ spades. The 9 could also be a an echo from 9x, but everything works in that case.

Also, on the 1st board, even really good opponents might not be 'warmed up', so they are less likely to find a falsecard from J9x.

Note if LHO led from four spades, and you know this, you should definitely finesse against the ♣J. Do you see why?

By the way, start with the ♣Q, not the A. You rate to get a truer signal from LHO.

[jdonn]

Phil, on Jul 8 2009, 01:20 PM, said:

Note if LHO led from four spades, and you know this, you should definitely finesse against the ♣J. Do you see why?

I don't.

[Echognome]

LHO opened 2♠, so we know he led from 6 spades.

I think this makes the finesse slightly more odds on, but I don't say it with confidence.

[kfay]

Don't even talk to me about this situation

[Phil]

Echognome, on Jul 8 2009, 02:37 PM, said:

LHO opened 2♠, so we know he led from 6 spades.

I think this makes the finesse slightly more odds on, but I don't say it with confidence.

I didn't see the weak 2.

Makes no difference, but it does invalidate the premise about four spades.

[Jlall]

Well in your actual hand you should definitely play the CQ next, and if clubs don't split you can fall back on the diamonds.

In your specific situation without the hand I would hook only if:

1) the opps were bad
2) RHO played the 2 lowest spots.

If RHO plays a spot that is not the lowest one and they're bad it just makes it too likely LHO has made a random 9 from J9x play (since RHO will not falsecard their spots if theyre bad).

Basically just remember you are gaining very little in equity if you finesse and you're right (ie, even if they NEVER falsecard from J9x it's pretty close), but you are potentially risking a ton in equity if you are wrong (ie, they always falsecard from J9x it is not even remotely close).

Also, VERY IMPORTANT, make sure they don't play udca.

[blackshoe]

Heh. Yesterday, an opponent opened 2D "weak". His partner bid 2S "to play". Opener had a five card diamond suit, and twelve HCP - none of them in diamonds. 2S just made. Turned out they were playing EHAA. <shrug>

[benlessard]

assuming west has 6S and east 3. And that west is incapable from falscarding from J9x. We have east 7 card is knowned (6S+1C) and east 6 card (3S and 3C) there fore a stiff J is slightly more probable than J9.

In your case however. The 4 diamonds tricks and the falsecard exist, add to that a very small chance of a 5-4 spade split. Play clubs from the top.

If your in 4NT and west is incapable of falsecarding then fineese is probably the better play.