[subvert]

Scoring: IMP

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contact:7S:
lead:sx
line1: try d33,if fails,squeeze W:HK+4d or HK+5c;
line2:cash red aces and all spades,double squeeze red K+c or squeeze red Ks +long c

which line has better chance or something else? thanks!

[655321]

I haven't done all the maths, but it looks to me as though cashing the red aces is quite a lot better. As long as an Ace doesnt get ruffed on the first round, you make whenever the red kings are in different hands (52%), plus whenever they in the same hand with 5 or more clubs. Even allowing for a first round ruff this is well over 60%.

I might be missing something, but any squeezes in other line seem to need the long diamonds to be in front of our long diamonds. For example, you would make whenever diamonds are 3-3 (unless a club is ruffed - so 36% less something), and whenever East has the long diamonds and the ♥K, i.e. less than 25% of the non 3-3 cases (plus, you still need a 3rd club to stand up here).

[subvert]

655321, on Jun 24 2009, 11:27 PM, said:

I might be missing something, but any squeezes in other line seem to need the long diamonds to be in front of our long diamonds.

The advantage of play d33 is when it fails;we can position 4d:
If W has 4d:we can squeeze W:HK+4d;
If W has 2d:he will have more chance of have long c,;if he unluckily have
HK,he will be squeezed HK+long c;
so when d33 fails,W will be squeezed likely/probably if he has HK.

[655321]

subvert, on Jun 25 2009, 07:01 PM, said:

655321, on Jun 24 2009, 11:27 PM, said:

I might be missing something, but any squeezes in other line seem to need the long diamonds to be in front of our long diamonds.

The advantage of play d33 is when it fails;we can position 4d:
If W has 4d:we can squeeze W:HK+4d;
If W has 2d:he will have more chance of have long c,;if he unluckily have
HK,he will be squeezed HK+long c;
so when d33 fails,W will be squeezed likely/probably if he has HK.

OK, I think I understand.

You are saying that if East (not West) has the diamond length, we can try to squeeze him in ♦+♥, whereas if East has the diamond shortage, we can try to squeeze him in ♣+♥.

It still seems to me (again, not having done all the math) that this line is not as good as cashing the red Aces because both of these squeezes fail when West has the ♥K. i.e. Whenever diamonds are not 3-3, and West has the ♥K, this line fails (32%). So if the squeezes worked all every time East has the ♥K you could make as often as 68% of the time. But when the ♥K is with East, you are still a long way from 100% - perhaps the third club is ruffed (you need to cash all the top clubs for the red suit squeeze to work), perhaps West has the diamond length with at least 4 clubs, etc.

[Fluffy]

there are 2 lines on the d33, one is to cash ♣Q before trying diamonds, and the other is not doing so. Cashing ♣Q is vital for a ♥-♦ squeeze later. But obviously risks clubs 6-2 wict the third spade. (I am too tired for the math).


At first sight I though the double squeeze was wrong because it required clubs not 4-4 to start with. But that's wrong, it will succeed whenever the red kings are in different hands, and whenever someone with 5 clubs has a red king. Actually I think its over 80% if I am not missing anything gross.

[655321]

Fluffy, on Jun 25 2009, 08:11 PM, said:

there are 2 lines on the d33, one is to cash ♣Q before trying diamonds, and the other is not doing so. Cashing ♣Q is vital for a ♥-♦ squeeze later. But obviously risks clubs 6-2 wict the third spade. (I am too tired for the math).


At first sight I though the double squeeze was wrong because it required clubs not 4-4 to start with. But that's wrong, it will succeed whenever the red kings are in different hands, and whenever someone with 5 clubs has a red king. Actually I think its over 80% if I am not missing anything gross.

Well, if you have to decide which squeeze to play for before you know the diamond break, you are reduced to (less than) 25% of the non 3-3 diamond breaks.

The line of cashing both red Acess is well over 60%, but is nothing like 80%. If the red kings are in the same hand (48%), this line fails when the other hand has 4 or more clubs.

[Fluffy]

right, 80% was a big exageration, about 65% I calculated.

Its not like you decide wich squeeze to play before testing diamonds, its that you must risk cashing ♣Q before ruffing third diamond or else you give up on the damond-heart squeeze agains East. I don't know if it is worth it.

[benlessard]

If you try for D33 you can squeeze East but not West. And only D+H. The clubs squeeze is a mirage because you only have a H entry.

xx
Qx
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Ax
x
x

Wheiter You play trump from dummy or you are in hand the club threat is a mirage. Th

Cashing the 2 aces and running trumps is the better line.

Edited you have a small shot for a trump squeeze VS west if he has the Diamonds, the clubs and the K of H, wich is very small %

The hand is more interesting on a club lead.

[655321]

benlessard, on Jun 26 2009, 05:37 AM, said:

If you try for D33 you can squeeze East but not West. And only D+H. The clubs squeeze is a mirage because you only have a H entry.

No, read the earlier posts.

OP said that after trying for 3-3 diamonds and finding them 4-2, he will try to squeeze East in

• ♦+♥ when East has the diamond length.
  
• ♣+♥ when East has the diamond shortage.

The diamonds in your example are a mirage.

[benlessard]

ok

Quote

The diamonds in your example are a mirage.

Except if east has 4 diamonds...