[Hanoi5]

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♥8 lead seems normal. ♦9 lead if you think it's too easy.

[hrothgar]

I am assuming that I am in 6♠...

I have 11 top tricks all day (6 Spades, 3 Hearts, and two bullets)

If I get a heart lead, it looks as if I have a near 75% line by hooking Clubs twice. I could try something fancy like excluding Hearts and then trying to endplay RHO, however, this doesn't seem to gain me that much.

[gnasher]

On ♦9 lead, if I believe the lead I can win, draw trumps, cash the hearts throwing a club, and exit with a diamond to endplay RHO. If I don't believe the lead, best is probably to play low, then try to ruff out the remaining diamond honour, falling back on the club finesse (with the extra chance of a count squeeze to cater for - x Kxxxx xxxxxxx on my left).

On a heart lead, I'd just take two club finesses.

[kenrexford]

If I pull trumps and eliminate hearts first, and then lead the diamond Jacdk toward dummy, and that Jack is not covered, I claim. So, 25% of the time (RHO has both diamond honors) I have a claimer on that line. So, that line is at least as good as double-hooking clubs.

But, I also have other options if the diamond Jack is covered. I win the Ace when it is covered, also claiming if RHO has a stiff diamond honor. That alone is better than 25%.

But, suppose I catch air from RHO on the diamond. I can now play a small diamond. If RHO started with Hx in diamonds, I claim. That's much better than 25%. Also, if RHO started with H9x, I claim whatever he returns. We are really increasoing our chances there.

Furthermore, what if RHO has H-fifth and LHO started with H9 doubleton. RHO might not find the deep duck. If not, I claim.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and play a small diamond back, and RHO plays low, I win if LHO started with KQ tight.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and play a small diamond back, and RHO plays the nine, and LHO plays low, and a low heart comes back, and I ruff, I win when LHO started with KQx.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and a small diamond comes back, and LHO wins with the 9, and then LHO tries to cash the other diamond honor like a goof, I win again.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and a small diamond back, and LHO wins with the 9, and a heart comes back, again a goofy play, I win again.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and a small diamond back, and LHO wins the 9, and a diamond comes back, goofy yet again, that card being the 7 lets me claim, but I also claim if RHO does not have the 7, because I duck and ruff out RHO's Hxx.

If I lead the diamond Jack, covered, won with the Ace, and a small diamond back, and LHO wins the 9, and a club comes back, I resort to the club finesse, which is 50-50 or so.

Through all of this, I might actually be able to get a count on spades, hearts, and diamonds so as to actually spot dropping a stiff club King to my right, albeit a remote line. LHO would need to have covered the diamond Jack, then won the diamond 9, then underlead Kx to partner's 7xx, me ruffing the 7 out to run a squeeze against LHO's diamond King, forcing him to ditch a club for a show-up drop of RHO's stiff King of clubs, and only if I knew that RHO only could have one club. But, possible.

So, I run the elimination line.

[mikeh]

gnasher, on Jun 3 2009, 10:07 AM, said:

On ♦9 lead, if I believe the lead I can win, draw trumps, cash the hearts throwing a club, and exit with a diamond to endplay RHO. If I don't believe the lead, best is probably to play low, then try to ruff out the remaining diamond honour, falling back on the club finesse (with the extra chance of a count squeeze to cater for - x Kxxxx xxxxxxx on my left).

On a heart lead, I'd just take two club finesses.

I had a longer post, but when I previewed it I saw gnasher had said all I had to say, succintly.

[gnasher]

mikeh, on Jun 3 2009, 04:13 PM, said:

I had a longer post, but when I previewed it I saw gnasher had said all I had to say, succintly.

Unfortunately, what I had to say wasn't very clever. After a heart lead, Ken's line is obviously better.

[jdonn]

kenrexford, on Jun 3 2009, 10:11 AM, said:

If I pull trumps and eliminate hearts first, and then lead the diamond Jacdk toward dummy, and that Jack is not covered, I claim.  So, 25% of the time (RHO has both diamond honors) I have a claimer on that line.  So, that line is at least as good as double-hooking clubs.

Sorry I couldn't read any farther.

Ken, 50% + [50% * (100% - 50%)] = 75% (king or jack of clubs on the left). But 25% + [50% * (100% - 25%)] = 62.5% (KQ of diamonds on the right or king of clubs on the left). My math background tells me 62.5% is not "at least as good" as 75%, at least assuming your goal is to come up with the highest percentage possible.

One could also use logic and realize that in either case you make with king of clubs on the left, so having one card on the left (jack of clubs) is a better chance than having two cards on the right (king and queen of diamonds).

Work on your math, and I'll read the rest...

[kenrexford]

jdonn, on Jun 3 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

kenrexford, on Jun 3 2009, 10:11 AM, said:

If I pull trumps and eliminate hearts first, and then lead the diamond Jacdk toward dummy, and that Jack is not covered, I claim.  So, 25% of the time (RHO has both diamond honors) I have a claimer on that line.  So, that line is at least as good as double-hooking clubs.

Sorry I couldn't read any farther.

Ken, 50% + [50% * (100% - 50%)] = 75% (king or jack of clubs on the left). But 25% + [50% * (100% - 25%)] = 62.5% (KQ of diamonds on the right or king of clubs on the left). My math background tells me 62.5% is not "at least as good" as 75%, at least assuming your goal is to come up with the highest percentage possible.

One could also use logic and realize that in either case you make with king of clubs on the left, so having one card on the left (jack of clubs) is a better chance than having two cards on the right (king and queen of diamonds).

Work on your math, and I'll read the rest...

Well, duh. That was stupid of me.

But, I still think I do better attacking diamonds. I'm running against a 50% second play in clubs. So, I need the diamond play to be better than 50%.

I obviously win 25%.

Of the 25% when LHO has both honors, I win if RHO has the 9x or 9xxx, because if he doesn't play the 9, RHO must win the other honor, and when he plays the 9, he's either endplayed (9x) or must lead a diamond and allow partner's KQx to be ruffed out early enough. I also win when RHO has stiff 9 or 9xxxx. When RHO has 9xx, he must insert the 9 to have any play left, and then he must continue that suit. That alone is a sizable part of that 25%.

Of the 50% where the honors are split, I win whenever RHO's honor is stiff or doubleton. When RHO has Hxx+, I win if he also has the 9 or does not find the duck.

[cherdanno]

Ken, you are missing that you have a guess when RHO wins the 9 on the second round and leads a third - you can't win against both H9xx and 9xxx.

Anyway, assuming that trumps split 2-1, I would follow your line, but after LHO covers the Jack, I would return to hand with a trump and lead the 8.
This would make when RHO has both honors, when he has H9(xxx), or when honors are split and the ♦7 is in the hand with at most 3 diamonds. I only fail when RHO has 9xx(x) and LHO finds the second round duck. In all other cases I can still try the club finesse.

[jdonn]

You are also missing that LHO is less likely than normal to have KQ of diamonds when he leads a heart. I think that is enough of a factor that it should impact the calculation (maybe call that 10% and the other chances each 30%?)

[Phil]

6♠ after the Curse of Scotland is led is easy; rise, cash hearts and exits a diamond to East. I think that can be improved by false-carding the ♦J and leading a diamond off the board toward the 8. If East holds KQ543, it will be difficult for him to rise, since West's hypothetical 87 remaining will get pinned - assuming declarer is 6313.

On a neutral heart lead, I'm leaning toward trump, hearts, ♦J covered and won; trump to hand and ♦8. I have a lot to do this morning and I haven't made up my mind but I want to give this some more thought.

[kenrexford]

Whatever the odds are, everyone is missing the key part to this problem. Dummy has the diamond 6.

Some could say that the diamond 6 is there because the OP wants us to consider that card as affecting the odds. Hence, this is a set-up. With the 6 obviously relevant on many plays in diamonds, we are drawn to the diamond play.

Others would see the 6 as proof that the "computer deals" are set up by the powers that be to catch us unaware. Hence, they go after diamonds, because they found the trick to the deal.

Others would see the 6 as proof that someone playing in the event set up this hand and will win masterpoints catering to that 6.

Still others see God as punishing them for not being thorough and will not this time miss that 6 on dummy.

Personally, I'm just mad that neither I nor dummy have the diamond 7.