Posted 2004-May-24, 23:32
Well since they only have 15 hcp, and they promised 16 hcp with their 1♣, it is save to assume the location of all the missing honors (can't psyche strong forcing bids, like precision 1♣). Also, since no thunderous double, it is fairly safe to assume that ♥ will be split 4-4-4-1 around the table.
The ♠9 can become a huge card on some lines (♠J to force cover, win ♠A, and hook ♠9 on way back). It would be nice to have continued the defense. I can assume, probably, ♦A-K (norht has at least ♦AKJ, and if he has more you are surely down), so South ruffs the third round.
If that is all the ♦, I may still come home. Best is ♠ back, play the nine now, hopefully to force the queen. If the queen is played. Win in dummy, cash the ♥J, cross to the ♠K, pull trumps, and give up ♣ at the end. (4♥, 2♦, 3♠). If West plays the ♠T, win in dummy, and lead the ♣K to set up ♣Queen for a ♠ discard. West has to win, his best return is a ♠ knocking out your entry to your hand. In this cash ♥s from the top and hope that South began with ♥T9xx and the ♦ ruff shortened him. It that is the case, your hand is good.
If West started with 4♦, you are certainly toast. Your only chance is the same T9xx of ♥ with south. After ♦-♦-♦-ruff. South will lead a ♥, and North can cash a ♣ and the ♦J when opportunity allows.
Best idea is to avoid your 4-1 fits, and for the next time, note your agreement now seems to be double of 1♣ shows ♣s. Maybe with a singleton we could have given that possibility a little more thought.
Ben
--Ben--