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MP lightner gamble dumb dubious fair or good ?

#1 User is offline   benlessard 

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Posted 2009-May-12, 20:54

MP

(1S)-------pass-----(1NT)------p
(3C)-------p--------(3NT)-------p
(P)---------???


AQ97xx
K9xxx
x
x

is doubling a

dumb gamble ?
dubious gamble ?
fair gamble ?
good gamble ?
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#2 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2009-May-12, 21:08

Doubling 3NT seems quite wrong to me, but it could work.

The times I have doubled 3NT with a 6 card holding in their suit, partner (surprise!) is void or has a small singleton. I don't remember the double ever working so I have given up.

And partner's clubs are under the club bidder. If we pass, we 'know' partner will lead a diamond. But just maybe he will lead a heart.

If we do double, I think we should be planning to win the spade at trick 1 to switch to a heart. At least we have avoided the diamond lead.
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#3 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-May-12, 22:07

Bad gamble, but if I really needed a board I would make the call. Sometimes its the only lead that beats it (I doubt it, since we can't conveniently cash the 2nd spade), but sometimes they run from 3N.

They may be concealing a club fit, so 3N could easily make on any lead.
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#4 User is offline   Codo 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 01:30

If this is the last board of a Ko match and I know I need a swing. Else no way.
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#5 User is offline   OleBerg 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 01:58

Dubious.
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#6 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 02:33

I wouldn't double, and that's saying a lot!
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#7 User is offline   the hog 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 03:42

Even if pd has a S to lead, you have 2 S tricks. And......?
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#8 User is offline   gnasher 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 03:45

I think double would be a dreadful call. Partner won't always lead a diamond, and it may not be a disaster if he does.

Maybe he was about to lead a heart from QJx. If so, I'm likely to need ♠A as an entry to cash my hearts; it would be a shame to encourage partner to waste it at trick one.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
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#9 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 03:52

Actually, I feel like doubling.. lol. But yeah, it's reckless when opps can have up to 30 hcp or so.

A lot different if it were instead

1♠ 1NT
2♣ 2NT
3NT
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#10 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 10:43

Is DBL asking a ♠ or a ♣ lead?
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#11 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 11:06

Spade. The club lead is one of usual leads, so no need to dbl to have that lead.
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#12 User is offline   cherdanno 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 11:07

kgr, on May 13 2009, 11:43 AM, said:

Is DBL asking a ♠ or a ♣ lead?

Spade. It always asks for the suit opening leader is void in.
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#13 User is offline   dake50 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 14:27

Good gamble to set up psychological ploy: they see this one so will redouble next time for 1000. A poker bluff to set up a kill.
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#14 User is offline   kfay 

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Posted 2009-May-13, 15:04

rogerclee, on May 13 2009, 03:33 AM, said:

I wouldn't double, and that's saying a lot!

lol

say KJ9753? (or whatever) :)

Anyway doubling this is a top/bottom action. Those are not good actions.
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