[whereagles]

655321, on May 6 2009, 02:31 PM, said:

Whereagles, my point was that your chain of reasoning, without numbers, proves nothing.

Sorry, I'm not still at the point where I can crunch the numbers real-time at the table. But I'm working on it

Agree that the conclusion of short (0-2) diamonds may be a bit too strong, but I would insist the odds are good pard has club or heart length. Since he didn't overcall, he's prolly broke.

Keep in mind you have 16 hcp and LHO is unlimited. Assuming LHO to be 11+, RHO 3+ and distributing the rest of hcps evenly, we come to something like

LHO pard RHO we
14 .... 4 .... 6 ... 16

[gwnn]

Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1♥, his average heart length is 7

[655321]

Trumpace, on May 6 2009, 04:23 PM, said:

How many 2524 hands will partner have, where he won't overcall 1H (or something else other than pass) over 1D and we have a 3NT?

Probably none at all for me.
But do you see the difference between "Partner's shape is 2524" and "2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold"?

[Trumpace]

655321, on May 6 2009, 05:46 PM, said:

Trumpace, on May 6 2009, 04:23 PM, said:

How many 2524 hands will partner have, where he won't overcall 1H (or something else other than pass) over 1D and we have a 3NT?

Probably none at all for me.
But do you see the difference between "Partner's shape is 2524" and "2524 is his single most likely shape, amongst the many possible shapes he can hold"?

Yes.. so?

I am not saying that 2NT is incorrect, just that I haven't seen any compelling reason for it (apart from maybe the below)...

(Sorry for the basic question:) does 2NT show a balanced 15-18 count?

[cherdanno]

Trumpace, on May 6 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

(Sorry for the basic question:) does 2NT show a balanced 15-18 count?

Yes. More like 16-18 I guess.

[Trumpace]

cherdanno, on May 6 2009, 06:32 PM, said:

Trumpace, on May 6 2009, 06:00 PM, said:

(Sorry for the basic question:) does 2NT show a balanced 15-18 count?

Yes. More like 16-18 I guess.

Ok. Thanks.

[whereagles]

gwnn, on May 6 2009, 10:22 PM, said:

Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1♥, his average heart length is 7

If you got 7 as average heart length, you probably did something wrong It's more like 6, and that's not even discounting the hands that have 7+ hearts and appeal for a different opening (e.g. 4♥, 2♣, namyats, etc).

Anyway, as to the hcp, got any better ideas on how to evaluate the averages?

[gwnn]

whereagles, on May 7 2009, 07:02 AM, said:

gwnn, on May 6 2009, 10:22 PM, said:

Whereagles, it is not a good idea to just "distribute the rest of hcp evenly" for the same reason you shouldn't say that when LHO opens 1♥, his average heart length is 7

If you got 7 as average heart length, you probably did something wrong It's more like 6, and that's not even discounting the hands that have 7+ hearts and appeal for a different opening (e.g. 4♥, 2♣, namyats, etc).

Anyway, as to the hcp, got any better ideas on how to evaluate the averages?

Yes I agree, I did something wrong, I applied your method for hcp to count hearts.

LHO has 5+♥
We have (say) 2
There are 6 more hearts in the deck which we distribute evenly

Therefore LHO has, on average, 7 hearts.

Just because I don't have a better method to make an estimate than a quick and wrong one, it doesn't mean I should use the quick and wrong one.

[Jlall]

I'd still bid 2N. We make 3N very often opposite random hands because we can shut RHO out and own lefty.

[whereagles]

are we into necromancy now, reviving old threads? LOL

[gwnn]

Can you defend your reasoning or is it proven right because of some statue of limitations on BBF that I am unaware of (2 weeks?) ?

[Phil]

Jlall, on May 1 2010, 05:35 PM, said:

I'd still bid 2N. We make 3N very often opposite random hands because we can shut RHO out and own lefty.

Yes - I saw this and thought 2N - wtp? and then I read my old answer lol.

[the hog]

I saw this and realised it is even a more clear cut pass than I originally thought. From where are your tricks coming?

[jjbrr]

I'd pass.

Looks like I should be bidding though!

[MickyB]

Hang on - how many points are the yanks expecting for 2♠? On this side of the pond, "weak" means 4-7 or 5-8 in this position, over which I wouldn't have considered 2NT. If it is 0-5 then sure, I'd probably bid 2NT. Or do you think 2NT is right over any of these ranges?

[Jlall]

MickyB, on May 2 2010, 03:56 AM, said:

Hang on - how many points are the yanks expecting for 2♠? On this side of the pond, "weak" means 4-7 or 5-8 in this position, over which I wouldn't have considered 2NT. If it is 0-5 then sure, I'd probably bid 2NT. Or do you think 2NT is right over any of these ranges?

Weak here usually means "less than a 1S bid" which is pretty lol to me but that's how most people who play weak play them ime. Maybe the good pairs don't but I don't know many good pairs who play weak.

To mean something like 5-8 is more like constructive. I would pass over 5-8 for sure.

[jdonn]

I can't believe my answer remains unchanged. That I would have passed without thinking about it, that seeing the 2NT reasoning gives me good pause, and that I would still end up passing but seeing how 2NT could easily be right.

I'm not sure I have come up against a single weak jump shift since the last time I answered. Do I not have normal opponents?

[hanp]

I'd pass without thinking too much about it.

[aguahombre]

How does Justin decide what name to use?