[guidocc]

Scoring: IMP

Bidding was
1H - 1S
2H - 3D
3S - 4C
4H - 4N
5H - 5N
6H - P
5H showed 2KC in ♠, no ♠Q; 5N asked for specific K's.
Opening lead was a low club.
Best line? (Heart spots are all low)

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[CSGibson]

how 'bout starting low diamond to the jack? loses to 4-1 trump breaks & if diamonds are 5-1, but otherwise I think it just about ensures the contract.

[Fluffy]

I think best is spade to the Jack, not sure if before or after cashing ♥Q. You can't cope with every bad break, but this at least has a play against ♥4-1 and half the ♠4-1.

Winning ♠J doesn't mean troubles are over, next is a club riddfed and a spade back towards hand, if LHO ducked ♠Q he will fin dhimself in the dailly bulletin.

[guidocc]

Line 1:

Win club A, cash heart Q, diamond to J. should now make if hearts 3-2 unless either opp has Kxxxx(app. 13%)or Kxxxxx(app. 1%).
Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: 100% - 13% - 1% = 86%
Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: 0%
Overall chance of success: 86% of 68%(chance of 3-2 hearts) + 0% 0f 28%(chance of 4-1 hearts) = roughly 58%

Line 2:

Win club A, draw trumps.
If hearts 3-2, cash spade Ace, then spade King; if Q doesn't fall, try diamond finesse.
Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: app. 27%(Qx either hand) + app. 5%(stiff Q either hand) + diamond K onside(50%) = 82%
If hearts 4-1, diamond finesse.
Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 3%(diamond Kx onside and with the short hearts) = 21%
Overall chance of success: 82% of 68% + 21% of 28% = app. 55% + 6% = roughly 61%

I took line 2, which failed. Line 1 would have worked(hearts 3-2, no bad luck in diamonds). My line seems pretty good, though it didn't impress my teammates
Is my math off here? Would appreciate more feedback.

[guidocc]

BTW another two lines suggested were
(1) Lead diamond Q. Interesting.
(2) Spade to K, diamond to 10. Better than diamond duck?

[655321]

guidocc, on May 7 2009, 08:27 AM, said:

Line 2:

Win club A, draw trumps.
If hearts 3-2, cash spade Ace, then spade King; if Q doesn't fall, try diamond finesse.
Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: app. 27%(Qx either hand) + app. 5%(stiff Q either hand) + diamond K onside(50%) = 82%
If hearts 4-1, diamond finesse.
Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 3%(diamond Kx onside and with the short hearts) = 21%
Overall chance of success: 82% of 68% + 21% of 28% = app. 55% + 6% = roughly 61%

Is my math off here? Would appreciate more feedback.

Yes there is a mistake in the math here.
If hearts are 3-2, you make when the ♠Q drops singleton or doubleton, and also when it doesn't drop but the diamond king behaves - i.e. you don't get to add 50%, you only get to add (100 - 27 - 5)*50% = 34% according to your numbers, so you get 66%, not 82%, of the 3-2 trump breaks.

Also, you do a bit better than your numbers against 4-1 trumps. If the ♦K is onside doubleton you are cold, if it is onside 4 times you still have at least a spade guess for the contract.

[se12sam]

guidocc, on May 7 2009, 02:27 PM, said:

Line 2:

If hearts 4-1, diamond finesse.
Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 3%(diamond Kx onside and with the short hearts) = 21%
Overall chance of success: 82% of 68% + 21% of 28% = app. 55% + 6% = roughly 61%

I think the Line 2 chances are better:

Even if West has Kxxx of diamonds, you win because you can finesse twice and play the diamond ace to discard your club. Now, you have time to try the spade finesse/drop as well?

[bid_em_up]

se12sam, on May 7 2009, 08:58 AM, said:

Even if West has Kxxx of diamonds, you win because you can finesse twice and play the diamond ace to discard your club. Now, you have time to try the spade finesse/drop as well?

If West has Kxxx♦, you don't need the spade finesse (or drop), as your 3rd spade will go on the 5th diamond.

[Hanoi5]

I'm playing ♦Q from dummy. Pretty nice and interesting play. If it wins I don't know what I'll do next though...

[whereagles]

lol.. that's funny

[655321]

bid_em_up, on May 7 2009, 10:00 AM, said:

se12sam, on May 7 2009, 08:58 AM, said:

Even if West has Kxxx of diamonds, you win because you can finesse twice and play the diamond ace to discard your club. Now, you have time to try the spade finesse/drop as well?

If West has Kxxx♦, you don't need the spade finesse (or drop), as your 3rd spade will go on the 5th diamond.

Except that while you are cashing the ♦A for the club pitch, East will ruff in with the high trump before the 5th diamond is set up. So (unless the 4 hearts are with the 4 diamonds) you do need a spade guess if Kxxx diamonds are onside.

[gnasher]

♦Kxxx on your left is sufficient when LHO is also the one with four trumps. For line 2 I think it should be:

Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: app. 27%(Qx either hand) + app. 5%(stiff Q either hand) + diamond K onside(34%) = 66%

Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 15%(diamonds 4-2, king onside, long diamonds with long hearts) + app. 8% (diamonds 4-2, king onside, short diamonds with long hearts, successful spade guess) = 41%

Overall chance of success: 66% of 68% + 41% of 28% = app. 56%

[guidocc]

Thanks to those who tutored me in math -- looks as if the diamond duck line is indeed better

[benlessard]

I think that because the lead is a low club its unlikely west has a stiff spades.

So low spade to J if it win you ruff a club cash the Q of H and play low to the K of S.

if it lose west best return is D... you go up with the A and pull trumps.

If the Q of S fall at trick 1 i ruff a club play the Q of H and play low S to the J.



My line fail when west has Qxxx in spade and return spades. Or when hes got the Q of S and trumps are 4-1.

This is clearly better than playing the Q of diamond at trick 2.


Edited ive noticed that you made a try for 7 ? So the argument about leading a stiff isnt good anymore but i still think my line is better.

[guidocc]

gnasher, on May 8 2009, 08:22 AM, said:

♦Kxxx on your left is sufficient when LHO is also the one with four trumps.  For line 2 I think it should be:

Chances of success with 3-2 hearts: app. 27%(Qx either hand) + app. 5%(stiff Q either hand) + diamond K onside(34%) = 66%

Chances of success with 4-1 hearts: app. 18%(diamonds 3-3, K onside) + app. 15%(diamonds 4-2, king onside, long diamonds with long hearts) + app. 8% (diamonds 4-2, king onside, short diamonds with long hearts, successful spade guess) = 41%

Overall chance of success: 66% of 68% + 41% of 28% = app. 56%

Thanks for the clarification on the extra chances if hearts 4-1.
I rechecked Line 1 and came up with this:

Hearts 3-2 -- diamond duck fails with 5-1 diamonds(no stiff King) in either hand, about 14%; or 6-0 diamonds either hand,about 1.5 %; or 5-0 spades with diamond K, about 1% -- so...
100 - 14 - 1.5 -1 = 83.5% of 68%(3-2 hearts) + 0% of 28%(4-1 hearts) = 56.8%

Hard to calculate exactly, but it seems the two lines are very close. I don't feel so bad now -- at least till the math mavens correct me again