[mikeh]

Scoring: IMP

After the auction 1♠ (2♦) 2♠ (p) 4♠, lho leads the diamond A and then the Queen... rho, playing udca, plays the 8 on trick one. Plan the play. Advanced/expert please delay posting

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[vuroth]

All I really see is that ducking trick 2 is clear. It can't cost - we can always trade a club loser for a ♦ loser. If RHO has only 1 ♦ it's essential that we duck. If RHO has 2 ♦s then he's about to drop the T♦, which would give us K9 over Jxx. We're not even afraid over overruffing RHO on trick 3.

Even so, it looks to me like we'll need the heart finesse, though if the Q♥ is singleton, we'll be ok. If trumps split, we can always try eliminating the minors before the heart finesse, in case the A♥ is single.

[Phil]

LOL, I think this is a (slightly) tougher hand than the theme that Mike might be suggesting.

[plaur]

I am with vuroth on the diamonds. RHO has ♦8 or ♦T8. LHO probably has the ♥A, though I guess he could have ♦AQJTxx ♣QJ and ♥Q.

I have 5 ♠s + 2 ♣s + 1 ♦ and can get 1 more by ruffing twice in hand, so I need to find 1 more.
If ♦s are 6-1 I dont see it. Say duck ♦Q, duck next♦ and ruff in hand. Then I can drop a club on ♦K and ruff a club, but then I will have to play the ♥ myself...
If ♦'s are 5-2 I can use ♦K at trick two, draw trumps while ruffing 2♦'s and play 3 rounds of ♣'s and hope they have to play to ruff and sluff or open ♥'s
Or I could just duck ♦'s to save the ♦K and play RHO for ♥A :-)

[quiddity]

Hard problem. I think we have to guess immediately whether LHO has 5 diamonds or 6 - if he has 5 he'll almost certainly have the HA so we have to play the DK. If he has 6, we have to duck and hope RHO has the HA.

Given the vul overcall and the DA lead, is it more likely he has
x Qxxx AQJTxx QJ or xxx AQ AQJTx Qxx? I think RHO is likely to play the D8 even from 8x (since he can see declarer will have to guess whether to put up the K on the second round), so it's not an important clue. Because of the lead, I'd play LHO for the six card suit and duck the second diamond.

[se12sam]

Based on the play, I'd trust LHO and duck the second diamond.

If a third diamond is played, I will duck again and ruff in hand, draw trumps ending in dummy, play DK and discard a club and then play low heart to the King.

This is (in my humble opinion) an easier line of play as it only needs the HA with East. And it is not impossible for East to hold the HA

[plaur]

What was the solution to this?

[mikeh]

plaur, on May 3 2009, 01:18 PM, said:

What was the solution to this?

I think the bidding, the choice of leads and rho's 8 make the lead almost 100% from AQJ10xx, so playing the King assures defeat.

When one is faced with this kind of situation, one should imagine a lie of the cards that will allow a make, even if that lie is unlikely. Here, it seems to me probable that the contract is doomed, but that there are two possible lies: One is that diamonds are 5-2: we win the K, and pull tump and then play 3 rounds of clubs, hoping, for example, that rho has to win and lead a heart from the Q or give a ruff sluff.. this requires all kinds of good things, and is virtually impossible anyway.

The other is simpler, even tho unlikely... hope rho holds the heart A. That is the line I took and it worked: duck the diamond Q, once in, pull trump ending in dummy, cash the diamond K to shed a club and lead a heart.. you still need spades no worse than 3-1, but it all comes home.

[Phil]

mikeh, on May 3 2009, 11:33 PM, said:

plaur, on May 3 2009, 01:18 PM, said:

What was the solution to this?

I think the bidding, the choice of leads and rho's 8 make the lead almost 100% from AQJ10xx, so playing the King assures defeat.

When one is faced with this kind of situation, one should imagine a lie of the cards that will allow a make, even if that lie is unlikely. Here, it seems to me probable that the contract is doomed, but that there are two possible lies: One is that diamonds are 5-2: we win the K, and pull tump and then play 3 rounds of clubs, hoping, for example, that rho has to win and lead a heart from the Q or give a ruff sluff.. this requires all kinds of good things, and is virtually impossible anyway.

The other is simpler, even tho unlikely... hope rho holds the heart A. That is the line I took and it worked: duck the diamond Q, once in, pull trump ending in dummy, cash the diamond K to shed a club and lead a heart.. you still need spades no worse than 3-1, but it all comes home.

Mike, the other alternative is that LHO has ♥AQx / ♦AQJxx, which require winning the diamond, pulling trump, and leading a heart toward the J. This also works when LHO has the ♥Q, or none of the heart honors.

I agree that catching the ♥A onside is a simpler and more attractive line. It even works when LHO unexpectedly has 5 diamonds.

[Stephen Tu]

Quote

One is that diamonds are 5-2: we win the K, and pull tump and then play 3 rounds of clubs, hoping, for example, that rho has to win and lead a heart from the Q or give a ruff sluff.. this requires all kinds of good things, and is virtually impossible anyway.

If we are going to play for 5-2 diamonds, why so complicated? Why not just play LHO for the HQ, lead a low heart to the J? Get a heart discard to pitch a club ...

Given the auction/lead/d8 I suppose 6-1 and HA onside is more likely but I think it's closer than you suggest, depending on your opponent's bidding & carding tendencies.

[jdonn]

This would be a good B/I problem for the theme you were trying to suggest if you simply change the heart king to the ace. It would also make the bidding (4♠ call) less debatable, not that it was necessarily wrong.