[mtvesuvius]

Scoring: IMP

8♠ lead.

Opponent's play 4th best leads, Standard Carding

Auction:
(1♣) - X - (P) - 2NT
(P) - 3NT - All Pass

Who has what spades? What do you play at T1?

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[kenrexford]

I see no reason to believe that LHO opened with something like ♠AJ98 ♥xx ♦K10x ♣Axxx or ♠KJ98 ♥xxx ♦Kx ♣Axxx. I see no reason why Responder would bid with something like the matching ♠Kxx ♥xxxxx ♦xxxx ♣x or ♠Axx ♥xxxx ♦xxxxx ♣x. In either event, the lead looks normal.

If you give Opener ♠AKxx, then, sure, he has a "full" opener. He can't have everything, or that would be a 15-count and a probable 1NT opening. So, you'd have to give Responder the heart King or the spade Jack, or both.

If Opener still has the spade Jack, then you can't go wrong. So, we must give Responder the spade Jack to have a problem. We can't give Responder the spade Jack AND the club Ace, because Responder would probably bid something with that, and Opener would be really light. So, the problem hand is when Opener has something like ♠AK98 ♥xx ♦Kxx ♣Axxx.

With that, I think Opener might well take a peek by playing the spade King first (if that asks for count). He could easily catch dummy with Qxxx or Jxxx and a count from his partner, where all he now need to do is play the Ace and another to establish a spade, where the 8 floated to the Jx ruins everything.

So, low for me.

[nick_s]

Opponents have 15 HCP between them. We have 8 clubs between our two hands, and both hands are balanced, so I think it likely that West has a weak no-trump.
So East can have at most a king.

To bring this home, we need spades 4-3 so that we lose 3 spades and the Ace of clubs.
The spade splits of interest then, are AJ98 opposite Kxx and AK98 opposite Jxx.

I can't think of anything else to go on except that not everyone opens balanced 12 counts with 8 losers. That makes AJ98 opposite Kxx marginally less likely.

I'm hopping up with Q♠ at trick one.