[shevek]

Scoring: BAM

1NT (14-16)  2♥
2♠                3♦
3NT

---

The 14-16 NT got you a bit overboard.
East leads ♣6-4-A-3.
♣2 returned so they look 4-4.

Over to you under two conditions:
1) NS at the other table play the same method as you
2) Other table plays a 15-17 NT.

PS. In BaM, can you ask questions about system at the oother table and expect a reply?

[jdonn]

shevek, on Apr 28 2009, 06:30 PM, said:

PS. In BaM, can you ask questions about system at the oother table and expect a reply?

I won't say it..... I just won't....

[shevek]

Okay, no early takers.

The double finesse in spades is just under 50% to make 9 tricks.
Let's say you pitch some red cards. A spade finesse loses then they cash two clubs and a heart comes through. Presumably you rise on this and take another spade finesse. If that loses - and you have bared your ♥Q - they are quite likely to take 3 clubs, 3 hearts and 2 spades for -200. Maybe -150 if they can't take 3 hearts.
Perhaps you will find East with ♠Hxxx, limiting you to 7 or 8 tricks, depending on how diamonds go.

It may be better to pitch spades and try for as many tricks as possible in reds. Playing hearts twice towards QJx is about 70%. That brings you to 8 tricks only so you need diamonds 3-3 or perhaps ♦Hx on your left, maybe ♠KQ with 4 diamonds. Let's call it 30% overall to take 9 tricks. The advantage of this approach is -50 maybe okay if the other table is failing in 2NT by going after spades, maybe even failing in 1NT.

System at the other table is a factor. If you judge they will always sit in 1NT or 2♠, then take your best shot at +400. If they might get higher, try to tie or even win with -50.

In a very serious event, I suppose you should check the methods of all the other pairs before play starts. I remember asking Geoff Hampson about my rights, during a hand. He quite reasonably said "You can ask but we won't tell you."

[MFA]

I don't see why everything has to be so speculative. Double spade finesse is my first and only thought.

[shevek]

MFA, on Apr 29 2009, 01:20 PM, said:

I don't see why everything has to be so speculative. Double spade finesse is my first and only thought.

As you might guess, the decision to post was coloured by the actual layout. West had ♠KQxx so taking the double spade finesse was -150 while playing on hearts is +400. It's quite trivial at Imps -- take your best shot in spades -- but not at BaM.

If you believe the other table will be in 2NT and they will play on spades, what should you do? If you duplicate their line (& clubs are 4-4 as they strongly appear), 50% you win the board, 50% you lose.

If you play hearts, you win when you make, around 30-35%. If you are -50, you can tie or even win when the spade line goes badly. -50 beats -150.
So you win when you make OR West has ♠KQxx, which brings you to 50%. (Okay, that's a slight fudge)

You gain by tieing, while duplicating their line can never tie. Take the typical layout where East has ♠Hxxx and diamonds don't break. They will be -50 in 2NT, while you will be -50 in 3NT around 70% of the time.