[dkham]

After a weak two if playing Ogust then a response of 2NT asks opener to give their suit quality
and hand quality. But, assuming the weak two is always made with six in the suit, why does
the suit quality matter? If their suit is weak does that suggest playing game in their suit rather
than 3NT?

♠Q5 ♥AQT54 ♦K54 ♣AQ2

Suppose partner opens 2♠ and with the hand above I bid Ogust and find out he has:

a) a weak hand with good spades (3♦)
b) a good hand with weak spades (3♥)
c) a good hand with good spades (3♠)

what should I bid?

[Apollo81]

Here's what I would do over each possible response
- bad hand, bad suit: 3♠
- good hand, bad suit: 4♠
- good suit: 3NT (we can count 9 tricks on a non spade lead if spades are 3-2)

[kenrexford]

Bottom line is visualization.

If partner has "bad suit," he can be counted on for just one of the top three honors. With "good suit," he has two of them. So, with Qxx, the suit is solid opposite "good suit" but needs a lot of work opposite "bad suit."

If partner has "good hand," he can be expected to have a trick on the outside, which is a possible entry or a possible extra stopper or a possible 9th trick. If "bad suit," he has nothing interesting on the outside, or at least nothing you can really count on.

With the examples. If partner bids 3♦, his suit is good, so you have six spade tricks, two Aces, and one trick from any lead except spades. If they lead spades, you can cash six of them, leaving AQ10-AQ-Kx in your hand. Small to the heart 10 assures you of a ninth trick. So, 3NT assuredly makes.

If partner bids 3♠, you have the same six spade tricks, plus the two Aces. Partner probably has one of the missing Kings or the missing Ace. Whatever he has gioves you and assurance of two more tricks -- his honor and whatever honor of yours his protects. That's 10 tricks. Whatever he does not have yields two finesse situations. So, you expect to take 10 for sure (only 10 25% of the time), 11 50% of the time (or better), and 12 about 25% of the time. If you need a swing, you might try the slam, even if it is anti-percentage.

If partner bids 3♥, you do not have six spade tricks. You might even need to lose two spades (maybe Qx opposite K109xxx)? You also lose control a lot in 3NT. So, you might think more about spade contracts. If you can hold spades to one loser, then that's five tricks, plus the two Aces, for 7 tricks. Becazuse he has a good hand, he has a filler somewhere to provide two more tricks for sure, of 9 tricks. You expect, then, to take 9 tricks 25% of the time (when spades work out well), 10 tricks 50% of the time, and 11 tricks 25% of the time, or so. 3NT is in trouble, though, if partner's card is not the club Ace and might even be in trouble then. So, you play 4♠, IMO.

[jdonn]

I think Ken's post and analysis are pretty darn good, except that he said club ace when he meant diamond ace. I will chalk that up to random insanity.

[kenrexford]

jdonn, on Apr 22 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

I think Ken's post and analysis are pretty darn good, except that he said club ace when he meant diamond ace. I will chalk that up to random insanity.

LOL

Hey -- any deal where we have two club Aces has to be good.

[mikeh]

kenrexford, on Apr 22 2009, 10:52 AM, said:

jdonn, on Apr 22 2009, 10:37 AM, said:

I think Ken's post and analysis are pretty darn good, except that he said club ace when he meant diamond ace. I will chalk that up to random insanity.

LOL

Hey -- any deal where we have two club Aces has to be good.

No... 2 aces of the same suit are very bad... duplication of values

[Wayne_LV]

♠Q5 ♥AQT54 ♦K54 ♣AQ2

Forget Ogust.

Rule of 17:

Partner opens 2♠

HCP + number of trumps >= 17, bid game in partner's suit.

17 hcp + 2 = 19 ....... respond 4♠

2N is better used as feature ask for those hands where you contemplate a NT game

[Winstonm]

Ken's post sounded like authentic frontier gibberish, to me.

Quote

Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=ke5Mr5eCF2U

[jdonn]

Winstonm, on Apr 26 2009, 02:54 PM, said:

Ken's post sounded like authentic frontier gibberish, to me.

Quote

Gibberish should not be enforced as law."

-P.J. Painter

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=ke5Mr5eCF2U

Ok I'll confess. Even after watching that clip, I don't get how it relates to his post!

[Double !]

I have always thought of a weak 2 bid as being a hand that, at minimum, would invite game opposite a 15-17 1NT opener. If the bidding went 1NT - 2h-2s-3s, would you bid game? Yes, you would, so i think that responded should have bid 2NT in order to decide which game is more likely (3NT or 4S) based on opener's rebid. However, you need to have some agreement regarding what constitutes a bad vs a good suit. If you regularly open J 6th, then you get what you deserve.

DHL

[kenrexford]

Forget the RUle of 17 and the idea that a weak two says you would invite game opposite a 1NT opener. This is not rocket science. When you bid Ogust, you get a fairly powerful description of partner's hand. Visualize a couple of reasonable options and play the hand out in your head. Do you like the odds, or not? What contract do you like best?

That kind of analysis is critical, IMO, to high-level bidding. It is much more difficult, however, in the context of convoluted sequences. This sequence, however, is probably the easiest possible sequence for pre-lead declarer play visualization. If you cannot learn the technique in this context, you are going to suffer in your entire game. Start here, in other words.

[Phil]

Wayne_LV, on Apr 26 2009, 02:45 PM, said:

♠Q5 ♥AQT54 ♦K54 ♣AQ2

Forget Ogust.

Rule of 17:

Partner opens 2♠

HCP + number of trumps >= 17, bid game in partner's suit.

17 hcp + 2 = 19 ....... respond 4♠

2N is better used as feature ask for those hands where you contemplate a NT game

I think there's a good reason why 'rules' like this turn into flame-bait on BBF.

While rules help newer players, there is a point in one's development where you must discard such rules and actually think and play bridge. For instance, here are four hands that qualify for this Rule of 17:

x, Axx, AKQxxxx, Kx
xx, AQx, QJxxx, KQJ
void, AQxx, QJxxx, AKJx
Axxx, void, AKQxxxx, xx

and I doubt that any of these are automatic 4♠ calls.

2N is fine as a Feature ask (with a maximum), but it is much, much more than an exploration for 3N.

[Wayne_LV]

Phil, on Apr 27 2009, 12:12 PM, said:

Wayne_LV, on Apr 26 2009, 02:45 PM, said:

♠Q5 ♥AQT54 ♦K54 ♣AQ2

Forget Ogust.

Rule of 17:

Partner opens 2♠

HCP + number of trumps >= 17, bid game in partner's suit.

17 hcp + 2 = 19 ....... respond 4♠

2N is better used as feature ask for those hands where you contemplate a NT game

I think there's a good reason why 'rules' like this turn into flame-bait on BBF.

While rules help newer players, there is a point in one's development where you must discard such rules and actually think and play bridge. For instance, here are four hands that qualify for this Rule of 17:

x, Axx, AKQxxxx, Kx
xx, AQx, QJxxx, KQJ
void, AQxx, QJxxx, AKJx
Axxx, void, AKQxxxx, xx

and I doubt that any of these are automatic 4♠ calls.

2N is fine as a Feature ask (with a maximum), but it is much, much more than an exploration for 3N.

Guess I failed to fully explain the application of the rule of 17.

First off, you must have a fit for partner's suit, which means at least 2 cards.

That rules out 2 of your examples right away.

xx, AQx, QJxxx, KQJ

I would not hesitate to bid 4 on this holding. Yes, with 4 losers outside the trump suit, it could conceivably go down, but life nor bridge is a sure thing.

Axxx, void, AKQxxxx, xx

This hand is a bit strong for an automatic jump to game, with only 2 losers outside the trump suit and holding the trump ace, slam is very possible. Rather than jumping straight to game, slam exploration is called for. BTW, using Kay-Silodore point count, this hand has a dummy value of 19 and would rate a count of 23 for the rule of 17. My personal guideline is to consider slam on any hand that values 20 or more per the rule of 17.

I have used the rule of 17 for quite sometime now and it has failed me less than 5% of the time.

I employ a number of "rules", which I prefer to call guidelines:

Rule of: 7, 8, 9, 11, 15, 17, and 500

No, I don't use rule of 20 but instead open any 12 total pt hand with 2 def tricks.

Maybe rules are for beginners, but guidelines definitely have their place for all but the highest levels of players.