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Slam Lead Gatlinburg #9 - I got it wrong (again)

Poll: Lead? (19 member(s) have cast votes)

Lead?

  1. J-s (7 votes [36.84%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.84%

  2. x-s (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. J-h (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. x-h (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. T-d (2 votes [10.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.53%

  6. x-d (2 votes [10.53%])

    Percentage of vote: 10.53%

  7. K-c (1 votes [5.26%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.26%

  8. J-c (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  9. x-c (7 votes [36.84%])

    Percentage of vote: 36.84%

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#1 User is offline   mtvesuvius 

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Posted 2009-April-19, 19:51

V vs NV at IMPs, you hold:

JTx
Jxxx
T9x
KJx

You are silent, and witness this auction:

(1) - P - (1NT*) - P
(3) - P - (4) - P
(4NT) - P - (5**) - P
(6) - P - (P) - P

*Forcing
**2 Keycards w/o Q
Yay for the "Ignored Users" feature!
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#2 User is offline   rogerclee 

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Posted 2009-April-19, 20:06

x

Even if a spade is "right" in that it allows us to set up a trick, declarer may be able to pitch spades from dummy (dummy has at most 3) and ruff his losers in that suit anyway. I think a club is the best shot at beating it.
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#3 User is offline   655321 

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Posted 2009-April-19, 20:15

I would lead J.

Often it is best to lead our best suit against a slam (clubs here).
But this time I am hoping that we can still get our club trick - declarer's hand is the one with shorter clubs, and he won't usually be able to pitch his clubs on dummy's suits.
That's impossible. No one can give more than one hundred percent. By definition that is the most anyone can give.
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#4 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-April-19, 21:14

Club seems blatantly obvious to me. It's not just right in theory to lead aggressively vs slams like this, it has worked out well for me time after time.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
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#5 User is offline   Old York 

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Posted 2009-April-20, 07:57

A trump lead is just as likely to succeed here. Declarer needs to establish his hearts by ruffing, or maybe establish dummy's club suit
Declarer should not have xx in either black suit to bid 4NT

Tony
Hanging on in quiet desperation, is the English way (Pink Floyd)
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#6 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2009-April-20, 11:00

Opps threaten to setup the hearts for a discard, but that's only a problem if diamonds are like 5-4. With 4-4 declarer needs to ruff a heart and then you get no club discard.

Diamonds are more likely to be 4-4, so J.
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