[vuroth]

Right after I chose my line last night, I saw an alternative line that I thought was a tiny bit better. Maybe there's a better line still, not sure. Nonetheless, I thought I would share.

Opponents silent, playing 5♦

Scoring: MP

5♣ led.

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[Wackojack]

Assuming no indication from the bidding I would take the obvious line. Ace clubs AK diamonds hoping for the queen to drop. Not very good odds, about 25% + singleton K clubs coming down what ever that is. (1.5%?) Another line is to play west to have led from Kxx. (Finesse, Ace clubs discarding heart, ruff club. AK diamonds, spade to ace, club discarding second heart) A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31% (I think). However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less.

[rbforster]

Wackojack, on Mar 31 2009, 12:21 PM, said:

A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31% (I think). However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less.

3-3 break is 35%, K onside would bring that down to 17%. Less since the club was chosen as the most attractive lead, implying LHO lacks the AK♥ or KQ♠ or various other holdings that are harder to quantify.

[Trumpace]

Wackojack, on Mar 31 2009, 12:21 PM, said:

Assuming no indication from the bidding I would take the obvious line.  Ace clubs AK diamonds hoping for the queen to drop.  Not very good odds, about 25% + singleton K clubs coming down what ever that is. (1.5%?)  Another line is to play west to have led from Kxx.  (Finesse, Ace clubs discarding heart, ruff club.  AK diamonds, spade to ace, club discarding second heart) A priori odds of clubs breaking Kxx opposite xxx is about 31%  (I think).  However the actual odds of choosing to lead from Kxx as opposed to leading a heart or a spade must be a multiple less.

How does singleton K help in the first line?

Also clubs Kxx with LHO being 31% seems like an overestimate, even if you assume that the lead can be from the K.

Anyway, my guess: the point of the hand is to decide how to get to hand to play the ♦AK. ♠A and ruff is probably better than trying to ruff a ♣ back to hand, in case ♣5 is singleton.

[vuroth]

Trumpace, on Mar 31 2009, 01:22 PM, said:

Anyway, my guess: the point of the hand is to decide how to get to hand to play the ♦AK. ♠A and ruff is probably better than trying to ruff a ♣ back to hand, in case ♣5 is singleton.

Yup. Won the A♣, clicked on a small ♣ on the board and thought to myself "wait, I bet a ♠ was 1% better. oh well, it won't matter"

It mattered.

Q♦ was doubleton, and we were the only pair in 5♦.

[Echognome]

vuroth, on Mar 31 2009, 05:02 AM, said:

Right after I chose my line last night, I saw an alternative line that I thought was a tiny bit better. Maybe there's a better line still, not sure. Nonetheless, I thought I would share.

Opponents silent, playing 5♦

Scoring: MP

5♣ led.

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The auction would help a bit. I think it makes a difference as to how likely the lead was a singleton.

[vuroth]

I dealt and opened 4♦, partner raised to 5♦. Opponents were silent.