[Mbodell]

RHO is very good. LHO is probably fairly good too, although you don't really know much about her style. Compact KO semifinal.

Scoring: IMP

Opponents silent
1♣*-1♠*:any 16+;gf bal or reds
1nt*-2♦*:relay;minor 4333 or 4432 same color
2♥*-2♠*:r;minor 4333
2nt*-3♣*:r;3334
3♥*-4♣*:kc♣;2 w/o
6♣
Opening lead low spade

---

[whereagles]

The heart one. If LHO underled a queen, then, by restricted choice, he choose to underlead the only one he has.

But you can play with a vice squeeze or so if you fancy those things

[Free]

♠A, draw trumps, and cash ♥AK. If the Q doesn't drop, discard your ♥J on the ♠K and try the ♦ finesse.

[Codo]

I would take the diamond hook at trick two.

The technical best chance is Frederics line, but the few additional % for a singelton or doubelton queen of hearts are smaller then the chance that they will not return a diamond when the finesse lose.

Give me a seventh heart and I choose the technical line.

[hanp]

Gotta agree with Codo here.

[Phil]

Agree with the diamond play, but I'm going to draw trump first. I doubt either opponent can make a meaningful discard that will give them a clue about the diamond situation and not drawing trump is more of a red flag.

[whereagles]

I think if you're gonna play for the diamond, you're better off NOT playing trumps because that allows opps to signal stuff if trumps are 2-0.

[Codo]

besides the possible signals: Which ruff exactly do yo fear?
the 7-0 heart break or the 7-1 diamond break?

[hanp]

Right on Codo.

[jdonn]

To Codo's first post, I like the thinking but disagree that it's more likely to work and would rather take the 'technical' line. But who is to say what is right and wrong since it's so dependant on what LHO will do.

To Codo's second post, yes it's dumb for anyone to suggest they might get a ruff, but there is something to the idea that not drawing trumps looks suspicious. Again, I think it's a difficult or impossible question to answer about whether you want to draw trumps first or not.

[Phil]

Codo, on Mar 9 2009, 10:22 AM, said:

besides the possible signals: Which ruff exactly do yo fear?
the 7-0 heart break or the 7-1 diamond break?

I'm not concerned about a 7-1 split, but when we don't draw trump when when its obvious to, the opponents will be justifiably suspicious.

[arigreen]

Also ask yourself when do you gain from playing a diamond to the K early?

- LHO must have AD (or else nothing matters)
- LHO must not have QD (or else he will surely cash it.)
- If RHO has QJ of diamonds, he may well split in which case you will be down.
- QH must not be doubleton (or else line one works anyways)
- QH must be onside (if offside, you are down anyways)

Conversely, when do you gain from playing the technical line? The technical line gains when it would have worked but the other line fails. For this to be true:
- QH must fall doubleton (12% chance)
- AD must be offside
- Either (QD is offside OR QJ are onside and RHO splits OR LHO returns a diamond anyways)

All in all it seems like playing a diamond to the king early is shooting for too narrow a target, but it's pretty close. It would be interesting to do a sim, assuming that RHO splits from QJ x% of the time and that RHO returns a diamond lacking the queen Y% of the time.

[awm]

Legitimate line is pretty much just 56%.

Playing early diamond to the king:

50% ace is on

If ace is off, then 0.50 LHO has queen also, and 0.25 RHO has QJ of which he splits x of the time. So the success rate is:

0.50 + (0.50)(0.50 - 0.25x)(1-y) = 0.75 - 0.25y - 0.125x + 0.125xy

In particular, if x=1 (RHO always split QJ) then you need y<52%. This actually seems pretty good; it's unlikely that if you play an early diamond to the king, LHO without holding the queen and without seeing RHO split still plays a diamond back more than half the time.

[Phil]

Spoiler

Quote

- LHO must have AD (or else nothing matters)

Quote

- LHO must not have QD (or else he will surely cash it.)

Probably, but if he thinks his pard has the ♦K and a heart guard; picture a ♠Qxx ♥AKx and stiff ♦K for instance.

Quote

- If RHO has QJ of diamonds, he may well split in which case you will be down.

Interesting card combination those diamonds. Would we split from QJ if we thought declarer had the AK (no). Would we fake a split with Q or J alone looking at the ♥Q that is finessable? Very possible. Would declarer ever stick in the 9 looking at K9? Never.

Quote

- QH must not be doubleton (or else line one works anyways)

Quote

All in all it seems like playing a diamond to the king early is shooting for too narrow a target, but it's pretty close. It would be interesting to do a sim, assuming that RHO splits from QJ x% of the time and that RHO returns a diamond lacking the queen Y% of the time.

Well, there's more to this hand than percentages, but if we think LHO won't return a diamond more than one time in four, then the diamond has to be better.

[Fluffy]

Split from QJ?, that is not gonna happen at trick 2. I don't think split from Qxx(x) is gonna happen either althou possible, after all a quick diamond lead is often made because we either have stiif ♦K, or ♦KJ bare not willing to make a 50% guess later.

[Mbodell]

The results at the table was I took free's line and pulled 3 rounds of trump (they split 1-1 and both discarded some spades) and then cashed AK of hearts (both followed, no Q), club to the board (diamond and heart pitch), spade pitching the heart J, and now the failing diamond finesse. The heart hook would have worked. Opponents played 3♣ making 5 and this board was more than the difference in the match. After words I was considering the implications of the spade lead with respect to the diamond A and heart Q, but I didn't think about the small but non-zero chance that an immediate diamond hook might fail but still not have a diamond played back.

[gnasher]

No one has mentioned the possibility that LHO will duck ♦A, which would be right if we had something like xx AK KQ9 AQ10xxx or x AKJ KQx AQ10xxx. That's a good reason for playing a diamond at trick two if we're gong to do it - I don't mind LHO getting suspicious about my failure to draw trumps if it might induce him to do the wrong thing.

[whereagles]

gnasher, on Mar 11 2009, 11:41 PM, said:

No one has mentioned the possibility that LHO will duck ♦A (...)

Last time I saw something like that, declarer was playing 3NT and, with only 8 tricks, he tried for a 9th by leading to his king on this position

xxx

Kx

and LHO... ducked his ace

[gnasher]

whereagles, on Mar 12 2009, 11:16 AM, said:

Last time I saw something like that, declarer was playing 3NT and, with only 8 tricks, he tried for a 9th by leading to his king on this position

xxx

Kx

and LHO... ducked his ace

I think that if you never let through a game by ducking in this sort of position, you're not doing it enough.

[Phil]

gnasher, on Mar 11 2009, 06:41 PM, said:

No one has mentioned the possibility that LHO will duck ♦A, which would be right if we had something like xx AK KQ9 AQ10xxx or x AKJ KQx AQ10xxx. That's a good reason for playing a diamond at trick two if we're gong to do it - I don't mind LHO getting suspicious about my failure to draw trumps if it might induce him to do the wrong thing.

Maybe it wasnt mentioned because it is a common to duck here, just as it its common not to split as RHO.

BTW, nice job in the Camrose