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21 HCP Are you worth a bid? If so what?

#21 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 09:01

I don't really get the point of doubling. Suppose you play lebensohl in this auction, and partner bids 2NT lebensohl (as she almost always will). Now what? Are you really bidding 3? Is there any reason to think that 3m is a remotely reasonable partial, in what could be a 4-3 fit? Or do you pass 2NT? You could still easily miss a game in this sequence since partner could have 4-6 points.

This also has the effect of wrong-siding the notrump, which could actually be quite bad.

And even if partner digs up a 3m bid, are you really going to do anything other than bid 3NT (admittedly with a lot more hope of making than if you hadn't doubled first, but if you were bidding 3NT anyway I don't see how this helps except for possibly making it easier for opponents to double or not double, and/or find the right lead).

This also might create ethical issues for you if partner bids a slow 2NT.
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#22 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 09:09

Edmunte1, on Mar 9 2009, 02:35 AM, said:

There' no middle way here (dbl or 2NT) because you cannot involve partner in a decision here, it's only high-way 3NT and low-way pass.
My choice is the low-way pass because:
- we do not have a source of tricks
-A10x may be a illusory second stopper in
-the spade length will provide maximum 2 tricks for us
-there's a bigger probability that partner is in 1-3 hcp range rather than 4-6 hcp range
-the win/loss raport is not in favour of bidding

Agree with Edmunte. This hand is a nice picture gallery and nothing more.
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#23 User is offline   MFA 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 09:27

3NT.
I like my chances. Partner will have a few useful values more often than not.
Michael Askgaard
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#24 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 09:50

bid_em_up, on Mar 9 2009, 09:54 AM, said:

Imo, big hands with no clear direction and tolerance for the other suits should always start with double.

But this hand has a very clear direction. It is 4333 with stoppers all over the place. The direction is notrump.

Phil, on Mar 9 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Agree with Edmunte. This hand is a nice picture gallery and nothing more.

Yup nothing more than half the strength in the deck. That's all it is.
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#25 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 10:06

jdonn, on Mar 9 2009, 10:50 AM, said:

Phil, on Mar 9 2009, 10:09 AM, said:

Agree with Edmunte. This hand is a nice picture gallery and nothing more.

Yup nothing more than half the strength in the deck. That's all it is.

Yes. And no tricks in a misfit auction.
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#26 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 11:33

Is any auction that doesn't involve a direct raise as responder's first bid a misfit auction? Also I'm curious to see how you define "trick" since it seems different from my definition.
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#27 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 11:40

LOL, I still think 9 tricks is a long way off but Josh sure is winning this argument. (which is all he is after of course.)
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#28 User is offline   jdonn 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 11:47

hanp, on Mar 9 2009, 12:40 PM, said:

LOL, I still think 9 tricks is a long way off but Josh sure is winning this argument. (which is all he is after of course.)

Of course. I said to begin with I don't really hate the choices that I didn't choose.

I was even generous, I said our 21 count was 'nothing more than half the deck'.
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#29 User is offline   hanp 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 11:53

Well, according to Gerben a jack is 0 points so you have 19. Which is still more than half the deck!
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
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#30 User is offline   pretzalz 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 12:14

I don't understand why double is takeout. Shouldn't 2N be for the minors and double strong balanced?
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#31 User is offline   TimG 

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Posted 2009-March-09, 12:46

I think that we could be +200 or +300 defending 2S with some regularity. And, that the opponents will be able to double us in 3N with some frequency when it is going down a couple of tricks. So, the usual "we can make 3N 40%-50% of the time" reasoning doesn't quite work.

I would pass.
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