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from Cape Fear Regional can you make it?

#1 User is offline   oldman5757 

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Posted 2009-February-23, 16:12

Scoring: IMP

P,P,4,Dbl
P,4,P, 4
all pass


LHO leads 10 , RHO wins the A and returns the deuce. What's your plan? :)
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#2 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2009-February-23, 17:33

We can play RHO for having 1228 with a dianmond honnor, the line that works then is A+.

This line might work on some other lay outs as well.
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#3 User is offline   Apollo81 

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Posted 2009-February-24, 09:46

Win A, cash A and lead small heart to dummy. We almost surely have a loser in ,,, so we cannot afford a spade ruff. We have to hope RHO started with 1228 or 1318 and the K.
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#4 User is offline   oldman5757 

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Posted 2009-February-24, 16:20

I started to put the hand in the B/I forum, but here's why I didn't. A and a and duck a to RHO works fine if trumps are 3-2, or if the K is stiff. If not, it doesn't work. A good LHO will win 3rd round of trumps and make you ruff a in hand, leaving you with one trump. Now you can't draw the last trump because RHO will run clubs when you duck a . Or, if you don't draw the last trump, when you give up a , another puts you in the same boat.

So, duck the first. RHO wins, and you're almost gin if RHO returns a . But if RHO returns a , which is what happened, you can pitch a spade, but you have to decide whether trumps are 4-1 or 3-2. if they're 3-2 you can ruff in either hand and play A and a . If they're 4-1, ruff in dummy and force out the K. Either way, if you're wrong, you go down.

I decided LHO had 4 , so I ruffed low in dummy, and led the J to LHO who gave P a ruff. Now I think A and a at any point is better because RHO with 1-2-2-8 is maybe just a little bit more likely than 1-1-3-8.
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#5 User is offline   pen_chef 

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Posted 2009-February-25, 01:32

oldman5757, on Feb 24 2009, 05:20 PM, said:

I started to put the hand in the B/I forum, but here's why I didn't.  A and a and duck a to RHO works fine if trumps are 3-2, or if the K is stiff.  If not, it doesn't work.  A good LHO will win 3rd round of trumps and make you ruff a in hand, leaving you with one trump. Now you can't draw the last trump because RHO will run clubs when you duck a .  Or, if you don't draw the last trump, when you give up a , another puts you in the same boat.

So, duck the first.  RHO wins, and you're almost gin if RHO returns a .  But if RHO returns a , which is what happened, you can pitch a spade, but you have to decide whether trumps are 4-1 or 3-2.  if they're 3-2 you can ruff in either hand and play A and a .  If they're 4-1, ruff in dummy and force out the K.  Either way, if you're wrong, you go down.

I decided LHO had 4 , so I ruffed low in dummy, and led the J to LHO who gave P a ruff.  Now I think A and a at any point is better because RHO with 1-2-2-8 is maybe just a little bit more likely than 1-1-3-8.

I think I posted a coment on the case but something wrong with it I see. Anyway, the way I see it: I agree with the ducking in at trick two, but I do believe RHO must have K, otherwise with only 10 points (presuming a singleton ) RHO'd have opened with 3 not 4. So, after bridging to dummy I'd go for a finesse. And still there are other important decisions to speculate... :)
A mind is like a parachute. It doesn't work if it's not open.
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