Help
Scoring: IMP
(1NT)----P-----(3NT)
your lead ?
Page 1 of 1
x,T9xxx,JT9x,xxx Your lead
#1
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 3,465
- Joined: 2006-January-07
- Location:Montreal Canada
- Interests:All games. i really mean all of them.
Posted 2009-February-18, 00:57
(1NT)----P-----(3NT)
your lead ?
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#2
- - - T98765432 AQT8
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 15,085
- Joined: 2005-June-23
- Gender:Male
- Location:Las Vegas, NV
Posted 2009-February-18, 01:07
I'll try a diamond. A spade to hit partner just needs too much when I have a singleton imo, especially if he couldn't double 3NT. A diamond is allowed to hit him too even when I have length.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#3
- Group: Yellows
- Posts: 6,772
- Joined: 2003-July-22
- Gender:Male
- Location:New Zealand
- Interests:Juggling, Unicycling
Posted 2009-February-18, 01:16
I can't see much wrong with a heart. Partner is allowed to have four hearts and the opponents hearts 2=2.
On this auction there is a huge premium on leading a major.
On this auction there is a huge premium on leading a major.
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#4
- - - T98765432 AQT8
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 15,085
- Joined: 2005-June-23
- Gender:Male
- Location:Las Vegas, NV
Posted 2009-February-18, 01:20
Even though I just answered I sort of regret it already. The heart length and fact it's a major should make it stand out over diamonds despite the sequence. I'll agree with Cascade.
I still don't like spade though.
I still don't like spade though.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#5
- Group: Yellows
- Posts: 6,772
- Joined: 2003-July-22
- Gender:Male
- Location:New Zealand
- Interests:Juggling, Unicycling
Posted 2009-February-18, 02:10
jdonn, on Feb 18 2009, 08:20 PM, said:
I still don't like spade though.
Spade leads are often spectacular
... either a success or failure.
Wayne Burrows
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
I believe that the USA currently hold only the World Championship For People Who Still Bid Like Your Auntie Gladys - dburn
dunno how to play 4 card majors - JLOGIC
True but I know Standard American and what better reason could I have for playing Precision? - Hideous Hog
Bidding is an estimation of probabilities SJ Simon
#6
- Andy Bowles
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 11,993
- Joined: 2007-May-03
- Gender:Male
- Location:London, UK
Posted 2009-February-18, 02:58
Heart. I have a reputation for woodenness to maintain.
... that would still not be conclusive proof, before someone wants to explain that to me as well as if I was a 5 year-old. - gwnn
#7
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 3,214
- Joined: 2007-December-16
- Location:Pasadena, CA
Posted 2009-February-18, 03:01
I liked Josh's first post, not his second.
#8
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 6,373
- Joined: 2003-March-15
- Location:Hamburg, Germany
- Interests:games and sports, esp. bridge,chess and (beach-)volleyball
Posted 2009-February-18, 03:18
I agree with Joshs posts. A red suit is it.
And I agree with his later insight that a heart is better.
And I agree with his later insight that a heart is better.
Kind Regards
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
Roland
Sanity Check: Failure (Fluffy)
More system is not the answer...
#9
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 4,083
- Joined: 2006-August-31
- Gender:Male
- Location:Santiago, Chile
- Interests:Bridge, Video Games, Languages, Travelling.
Posted 2009-February-18, 03:57
♦J
wyman, on 2012-May-04, 09:48, said:
Also, he rates to not have a heart void when he leads the ♥3.
rbforster, on 2012-May-20, 21:04, said:
Besides playing for fun, most people also like to play bridge to win
My YouTube Channel
#10
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 1,950
- Joined: 2008-April-05
- Gender:Male
- Location:Copenhagen
- Interests:Model-Railways.
Posted 2009-February-18, 05:45
Low heart.
Had it been MP, ♦J is a standout to me.
Had it been MP, ♦J is a standout to me.
_____________________________________
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
_____________________________________
We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
Do not underestimate the power of the dark side. Or the ninth trumph.
Best Regards Ole Berg
_____________________________________
We should always assume 2/1 unless otherwise stated, because:
- If the original poster didn't bother to state his system, that means that he thinks it's obvious what he's playing. The only people who think this are 2/1 players.
Gnasher
#11
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 3,727
- Joined: 2006-June-05
- Location:Oslo, Norway
- Interests:Bridge, sports, Sci-fi, fantasy
Posted 2009-February-18, 14:54
I don't thing a spade lead is right when partner couldn't double.
So I'll lead a red suit. Normally a heart, but with my previous partner a diamond is automatic!
So I'll lead a red suit. Normally a heart, but with my previous partner a diamond is automatic!
Kind regards,
Harald
Harald
#12
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 3,465
- Joined: 2006-January-07
- Location:Montreal Canada
- Interests:All games. i really mean all of them.
Posted 2009-February-20, 17:05
My first reaction was the J of D but then i realized that unless dummy has Hx and partner an higher honnor (very unlikely) D is going almost nowhere. At imps I think its really between H and S. Really need to sim this one to be sure.
From Psych "I mean, Gus and I never see eye-to-eye on work stuff.
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
For instance, he doesn't like being used as a human shield when we're being shot at.
I happen to think it's a very noble way to meet one's maker, especially for a guy like him.
Bottom line is we never let that difference of opinion interfere with anything."
#13
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 10,728
- Joined: 2003-March-07
- Gender:Male
- Location:Laos
- Interests:Wagner and Bridge
Posted 2009-February-20, 20:05
J of D. leading a heart is hoping too much for the magic layout.
"The King of Hearts a broadsword bears, the Queen of Hearts a rose." W. H. Auden.
#14
- mmm Duvel
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 10,728
- Joined: 2003-July-30
- Gender:Male
- Location:Belgium
- Interests:Duvel, Whisky
Posted 2009-February-21, 02:11
♦J
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
#15
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,987
- Joined: 2009-February-15
Posted 2009-February-21, 10:30
I did a double dummy simulation, the spade is the winner by a wide margin.
Out of 200 hands, we can beat 3NT 42 times. On those 42 deals the best lead is:
spade: 30 times
high heart: 15 times
low heart: 17 times
high diamond: 13 times
low diamond: 8 times
club: 13 times
My simulation did not take into accont whether partner would double 3NT. I did put some effort into making reasonable restrictions for 1NT and 3NT.
Out of 200 hands, we can beat 3NT 42 times. On those 42 deals the best lead is:
spade: 30 times
high heart: 15 times
low heart: 17 times
high diamond: 13 times
low diamond: 8 times
club: 13 times
My simulation did not take into accont whether partner would double 3NT. I did put some effort into making reasonable restrictions for 1NT and 3NT.
and the result can be plotted on a graph.
#16
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,211
- Joined: 2006-April-22
Posted 2009-February-21, 13:35
hanp,
now sim for how often S-lead handed over an otherwise beatable 3NT. I'm betting again S-lead handing over a 3NT beatable is also a big winner.
now sim for how often S-lead handed over an otherwise beatable 3NT. I'm betting again S-lead handing over a 3NT beatable is also a big winner.
#17
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 2,211
- Joined: 2006-April-22
Posted 2009-February-21, 13:56
An aside to my previous post.
One of my pet peeves is double dummy analysis that lets this lead count as setting 3NT. But not edifying bridge players that their taught reaction on J + J hands (get out safely) is wrong. Input DD-analysis to this hand type as theory for not escape safe lead but S-attack OR ding DD that sets 3NT on this 'left field' lead. DD can't have it both ways.
DD-sets so 3NT fails BUT NOT lead is showably 'better' to modify lead table pedagogy/theory.
One of my pet peeves is double dummy analysis that lets this lead count as setting 3NT. But not edifying bridge players that their taught reaction on J + J hands (get out safely) is wrong. Input DD-analysis to this hand type as theory for not escape safe lead but S-attack OR ding DD that sets 3NT on this 'left field' lead. DD can't have it both ways.
DD-sets so 3NT fails BUT NOT lead is showably 'better' to modify lead table pedagogy/theory.
#18
- - - T98765432 AQT8
-
- Group: Advanced Members
- Posts: 15,085
- Joined: 2005-June-23
- Gender:Male
- Location:Las Vegas, NV
Posted 2009-February-21, 14:26
I think double dummy would overvalue a spade lead since it is the suit most likely to solve a guess for declarer by a wide margin.
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.
#19
- Group: Full Members
- Posts: 612
- Joined: 2007-December-31
- Location:Bethesda, Maryland, USA
Posted 2009-February-21, 15:52
hanp, on Feb 21 2009, 11:30 AM, said:
spade: 30 times
high heart: 15 times
low heart: 17 times
high heart: 15 times
low heart: 17 times
Does this mean that 30/200 we beat with a spade, 15/200 with a high heart, and 17/200 with a low heart? Or does it mean that on the hands we beat, spade is optimal 30/42, high heart 15/42, and low heart 17/42/? It's hard for me to see how the heart spot we lead will matter very often, in which case, if I'm reading your post correctly then the heart lead is very close to the spade lead before we make adjustments for single-dummy considerations (most commonly, we resolve a guess for declarer).
Curt
"It is not enough to be a good player. You must also play well." -- Tarrasch
Page 1 of 1