[Apollo81]

mikeh, on Feb 17 2009, 12:49 PM, said:

Apollo81, on Feb 17 2009, 11:28 AM, said:

grand could still be reached

I still don't understand how you can drive to grand, as opener, unless you know that partner has 4 trumps. I raised this issue in response to josh's suggestion that opener keycard at some point, but KQx Kx QJxxx xxx makes grand extremely poor.. and where does your auction distinguish that holding from the actual hand?

It's much more likely that partner has 4252 for the 4♠ bid than other shapes, as he might have splintered with a round-suit singleton and might have tried to get to 3NT with only 3-card support. I admit that there's a significant chance that partner won't have that (maybe he has singleton ♥K for instance), but it's too likely to ignore.

Also I agree with Josh (I should CTL-C this, feels like ive been saying this in every post today)

[Apollo81]

mikeh, on Feb 17 2009, 12:49 PM, said:

I think you, and several others, have fallen into the trap of creating an auction that only makes sense because you 'know' the real hand. Have I missed something? It wouldn't be the first time

To play devil's advocate on myself for a minute, I'll admit that maybe I shouldn't be making so many assumptions about a bid that I would (almost) never make.

[mikeh]

jdonn, on Feb 17 2009, 11:55 AM, said:

mikeh, on Feb 17 2009, 11:49 AM, said:

Apollo81, on Feb 17 2009, 11:28 AM, said:

I also don't understand why North leapt to game when he could have saved space with a 3♠ bid.  However grand could still be reached.  South shouldn't bid RKC not knowing whether partner has an ace in his void.  The auction at that point could go 5♣-5♥-5NT*-7♠ (*grand slam force)

I still don't understand how you can drive to grand, as opener, unless you know that partner has 4 trumps. I raised this issue in response to josh's suggestion that opener keycard at some point, but KQx Kx QJxxx xxx makes grand extremely poor.. and where does your auction distinguish that holding from the actual hand?

I think you, and several others, have fallen into the trap of creating an auction that only makes sense because you 'know' the real hand. Have I missed something? It wouldn't be the first time

I think what you have missed is that most of us don't require 100% knowledge of a grand making in order to bid it. Just a strong likelihood. So if partner has one particular bad shape with no extra useful strength I'm in a 30% grand, what else is new?

It's significantly less than 30%, but that is a quibble.

What is more to the point is the frequency. You argue that most of the time the grand will be good.

I can accept that the grand will be reasonable more often than not, but only by the slimmest of margins.

4=2=5=2 is far less common than 3=2=5=3... we hold 5 spades and 3 clubs, so partner will more commonly hold longish clubs than longish spades.

3=3=5=2 is also less common, for the same reason. We hold too many hearts to make it equivalent in frequency.

I have not done the work, but I am pretty sure that the most common hand type will be 3=2=5=3... on which grand is about 23% on a diamond lead.

3=2=6=2 is another possibility.. and this also is not a good grand, although it isn't terrible.. on a diamond lead, we need something good to happen in a major: either 3-2 trumps or the heart Jack coming down doubleton or tripleton.

I find it odd that a good player will so cavalierly dismiss the single most likely layout as not worth worrying about. Especially when grand is not frigid opposite the actual hand (altho it is very, very good).

[jdonn]

mikeh, on Feb 17 2009, 12:26 PM, said:

I have not done the work, but I am pretty sure that the most common hand type will be 3=2=5=3... on which grand is about 23% on a diamond lead.

I double (based purely on my gut - I haven't even calculated!) 3-3 hearts and either 4-3 clubs or 5-2 onside, keeping in mind that one good break makes the other more likely. I think you also forgot to include LHO 2-2 in the majors with Jx of hearts...

Anyway take all your times partner has 3 clubs and the grand is down, and decrease it by 30% or so. Partner is allowed to have the club queen (or Jxx allows for luck too!)

Quote

I find it odd that a good player will so cavalierly dismiss the single most likely layout as not worth worrying about.

I found this comment curious. I didn't say it's not worth worrying about, I just don't feel the combination of times a grand goes down is near enough to how often it makes (partner four spades, partner club queen, partner doubleton club, partner queen of clubs, partner ace of diamonds, partner king of diamonds opponents lead ace just in case...). That doesn't mean I discount the chance of it going down. You were fully right to point it out though.

[skjaeran]

1♠ - 3♦ (Bergen)
3♥ - 4♥ (natural, honor cue)
4NT - 5♣
5♦ - 6♠
7♠

[neilkaz]

mtvesuvius, on Feb 16 2009, 11:36 PM, said:

neilkaz, on Feb 16 2009, 11:14 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 16 2009, 05:25 PM, said:

Did 4♠ have any definition at all? If north just bids 3♠ as I essentially always would, south bids 4♣, north bids 4♥, then keycard solves your problems.

Exactly since the intitial transfer is positive and GF anyhow why waste space ???

My partner had just finished discussing the principle of fast arrival with someone, and felt that he wanted to apply it on this hand (LOL). I also felt that 3♠ is much better here, but I was wondering other thoughts, and if there was a good way to still reach the grand. Thanks for all the answers .

You and PD need to get on the same wavelength concerning fast arrival (yuck) in these auctions. He shows 9+ with 5+♦ and you show 16+ with 5♠.

He has good 4 card trump support and 10 HCP + 2 doubletons. Perhaps his HCP indicates that he should be fast arriving, but that splendid 4 card support and potentially useful K of ♥ plus the ♣ dub should indicate that the hand maybe slammish and he should just bid 3♠ to give you some room.

If he wants to use fast arrival, I'd reserve it for a real dog. .. ie a flat 9 or bad 10 with 3 card support since with more you can sometimes have slam with a shapely 16 or 17 HCP.

Just my opinion.. neilkaz ..

[mtvesuvius]

neilkaz, on Feb 17 2009, 02:23 PM, said:

mtvesuvius, on Feb 16 2009, 11:36 PM, said:

neilkaz, on Feb 16 2009, 11:14 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 16 2009, 05:25 PM, said:

Did 4♠ have any definition at all? If north just bids 3♠ as I essentially always would, south bids 4♣, north bids 4♥, then keycard solves your problems.

Exactly since the intitial transfer is positive and GF anyhow why waste space ???

My partner had just finished discussing the principle of fast arrival with someone, and felt that he wanted to apply it on this hand (LOL). I also felt that 3♠ is much better here, but I was wondering other thoughts, and if there was a good way to still reach the grand. Thanks for all the answers .

You and PD need to get on the same wavelength concerning fast arrival (yuck) in these auctions. He shows 9+ with 5+♦ and you show 16+ with 5♠.

He has good 4 card trump support and 10 HCP + 2 doubletons. Perhaps his HCP indicates that he should be fast arriving, but that splendid 4 card support and potentially useful K of ♥ plus the ♣ dub should indicate that the hand maybe slammish and he should just bid 3♠ to give you some room.

If he wants to use fast arrival, I'd reserve it for a real dog. .. ie a flat 9 or bad 10 with 3 card support since with more you can sometimes have slam with a shapely 16 or 17 HCP.

Just my opinion.. neilkaz ..

I agree, this was certainly a 3♠ bid here... This is not a very regular partner, and he is getting older, so I enjoyed auctions such as 1♠ - 2♥ GF - 3♦ - Pass, and other gems . LOL