[Hanoi5]

Vul vs NV

♠AQT9x
♥K87x
♦A8x
♣x

1♣ - 1♠ - Pa - 2♠
Pa - ???

[H_KARLUK]

Just 3♥ for me. I prefer to show side suit.

I need more HCP located except ♣ suit for 3♣ cue.

[the hog]

3H, though pass could well be right. Don't understand the above comment regarding 3C cue. Responder bid 2S, didn't make a cue raise. What would 3c by opener accomplish?

[JLOL]

3H

[Hanoi5]

What do you take from the lack of -intervention- of the opponents?

[manudude03]

I'll bite. I'll bid 3♣, intending it as a short suit game try. Partner doesn't really need much in hearts to make 4♠ good (something like Kxx Qx Kxxx xxxx has reasonable play for 4♠ and partner might not think Qx is a good holding if I try 3♥.

[Codo]

I make a game try, 3 ♣ playing SSTB 3 ♥ playing LSTBor HSTB.

Without a discussion I better bid 3 ♣ because this will be surely a shortness

[JLOL]

manudude03, on Feb 3 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

(something like Kxx Qx Kxxx xxxx has reasonable play for 4♠ and partner might not think Qx is a good holding if I try 3♥.

LOL

[jdonn]

manudude03, on Feb 3 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

I'll bite. I'll bid 3♣, intending it as a short suit game try. Partner doesn't really need much in hearts to make 4♠ good (something like Kxx Qx Kxxx xxxx has reasonable play for 4♠ and partner might not think Qx is a good holding if I try 3♥.

True, why would he assume that one of the best holdings possible is a good holding?

[y66]

3D. Pard can still bid 3H.

[Apollo81]

I'd bid 3♥, but I'd pass if the ♠T was a small spade.

[mtvesuvius]

3♥, whatever partner wants it to be... (Except NF )

[manudude03]

jdonn, on Feb 3 2009, 05:13 PM, said:

manudude03, on Feb 3 2009, 07:15 AM, said:

I'll bite. I'll bid 3♣, intending it as a short suit game try. Partner doesn't really need much in hearts to make 4♠ good (something like Kxx Qx Kxxx xxxx has reasonable play for 4♠ and partner might not think Qx is a good holding if I try 3♥.

True, why would he assume that one of the best holdings possible is a good holding?

Before I earn my second LOL in one topic, I will just say that after accepting a HSGT, I would expect to bring the trick expectency of that suit up by 1. If posters here are saying that Kxxx (I doubt the 87 will bring in a trick) is enough for a HSGT, and bearing in mind the hand over the Qx is going to be stronger, seems the trick expectancy will only be going up by something like 0.4 compared to if they had xx instead.

Also if Kxxx is enough, then presumably Axxx is also? If that's the case, that Qx holding may as well be xx most of the time. Yes partner will often (I hope!) have better holdings than these (at the other extreme AKJx is an expected gain of 1.4 or so with Qx opposite), but I'd take a guess and say that the average gain of Qx is 0.7-0.8 here.

In the ruffing department, all I will say is Qx is as good as xx. Yes, Qx is a reasonably good holding, but sometimes reasonably good is sometimes not good enough.

I don't have Suitplay or anything like that, so the figures above are only rough estimates

I don't mind getting LOL'ed at. Heck I don't even mind being told I suck (provided its within reason of course or else clearly a joke). But LOL'ing just because you don't agree really doesn't look great. Some people accept what they're told and take it for granted, some people go by experience (which I admittedly don't really have enough of) while others prefer to see why something is right or wrong.

[JLOL]

You are making it all quite complicated, but if your end result is that Qx is worth .75 tricks on average then that is a pretty damn good queen. The whole point of a game try is to figure out how the hands fit, and how well your honors are working.

I think that you basically ended up concluding that Qx is a good holding after 3H?

Anyways, you are making it way too complicated, and your numbers are complete guesswork anyways. I also don't think it's good guesswork, for instance Qx is much better than xx when partner has a holding like KJxx, or AJxx when you have only 3 trumps it is not like you can just assume you will typically get 2 ruffs in dummy on accurate defense.

A much simpler and less convoluted way to look at it is to evaluate your overall hand strength and your holding in the suit partner has bid.

Your heart holding is well above average, both the doubleton and the queen will usually be working. Your holding is significantly better than both xx and Qxx. Your values are working here.

Your overall hand strength is at the top of your range for a 2S raise with 8 points and 9 support points, and the quality of the points in the non heart suits (remember the heart suit is a seperate issue) is good; 2 kings being very nice.

I don't understand how you can justify not bidding game when every consideration points to it. It's not like you need a top 10 % hand to accept a game try, it's more like a top 50 % hand.

Also, of course everyone would be happy to bid 3C if it was defined as a short suit game try. In fact this would be a non problem playing that method. Given that that method was not specified, and that if that method was in use this would be a non problem, there is no reason to assume you play it. It is of no use to answer a bidding problem with a system that is not in use, all bidding problems are in context of the system in use. Of course "standard" is assumed as a default when nothing is specified, so perhaps you just think 3C here as a short suit game try is standard but I would just say that you are out of touch with what is standard in that case.

[JLOL]

Also I still have no clue what you mean by "I expect to increase the trick expectancy in a suit by 1." Do you always accept a game try when you have the ace of that suit, regardless of the rest?

Look at it this way, if you could have Ax of hearts and a side queen or Qx of hearts and a side ace, which would you prefer? Obviously Qx of hearts plus an ace would be better. Trying to decide what to do without looking at the rest of your hand is silly. Having the Q and a doubleton in the suit partner has game tried in increases the value of that queen and that doubleton by a lot which is why Qx of hearts is such a great holding. If you had QJx of hearts that would be even better, because now both of those honors have increased in value by so much compared to an average QJx combination.