[Hanoi5]

Scoring: IMP

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You're playing 6♠. (At one point your partner bid 5♠, trump asking, and you bid 6♠, as you need points).

A diamond is led against you. You win the ace, play ♥A and ♥ to the King. No queen in sight. How do you play spades?

At the other table the lead was a heart, won in dummy with the Jack, will you deal differently with the hand?

[Mosene]

Other options:

J wins, then lead Q, smothering 10 in LHO's hand

I am not sure what the odds favor for any of the choices. I kinda like the smothering play - but that is more for the fun of it than an odds decision.

[H_KARLUK]

Opps hold   Division   Probability
 5cards        3-2         68%
                    4-1        28%
                    5-0          4%

Also when opps have    Probability of an honour card being
5 cards                          Singleton  Doubleton   Trebleton  
                                         6%              27%           41%

I ll stay at table. Then a low ♣ to KQx. I need a ♣ruff and ♠Kxx inside,Tx offside.

[jdonn]

H_KARLUK, on Feb 2 2009, 02:26 PM, said:

Opps hold   Division   Probability
 5cards        3-2         68%
                    4-1        28%
                    5-0          4%

Also when opps have    Probability of an honour card being
5 cards                          Singleton  Doubleton   Trebleton  
                                         6%              27%           41%

I ll stay at table. Then a low club to KQx. I need a club ruff and Kxx inside,Tx offside.

True! So armed with that knowledge, how do you play the spades on this hand?

[H_KARLUK]

When opponents have 5 or 6 cards :
Finesse against th King or Queen but not against th knave.
So Knave with us, ten disappears.

As I said I need a ♣ ruff for further entry. Then first ♦ at hand same, ♣ high at hand. 2nd ♦ at table if not ruffed. Trump finesse. ♣ ruff.

Kxxx inside, T offside also works ? Then I think depends ♠ 8 with us. I have no idea where it is. Just seeing x, maybe that means higher outside.

[jdonn]

H_KARLUK, on Feb 2 2009, 02:37 PM, said:

When opponents have 5 or 6 cards :
Finesse against th King or Queen but not against th knave.
So Knave with us, ten disappears.

As I said I need a ♣ ruff for further entry. Then first ♦ at hand same, ♣ high at hand. 2nd ♦ at table if not ruffed. Trump finesse. ♣ ruff.

Kxxx inside, T offside also works ?

Thank you very much for clearing that up.

[H_KARLUK]

Oh you welcome, may i have your line please?

[jdonn]

I would run queen first. I am trying to pick up KTx onside, but will gain when it's Kxxx (really K876 I'm assuming) or Kxx or Kx onside if they mistakenly don't cover.

[H_KARLUK]

jdonn, on Feb 2 2009, 09:53 PM, said:

I would run queen first. I am trying to pick up KTx onside, but will gain when it's Kxx or Kx onside if they mistakenly don't cover.

Point taken. Thanks.

[JLOL]

Winning the DA and playing ace king of hearts was terrible. If you just win the DK and play a spade to the jack you preserve legitimate chances of making when its king third of spades onside and LHO has Qxx of hearts and 3 or less diamonds or if RHO has stiff K of spades and Qxx of hearts to go with 3 or less diamonds. You also might make if LHO has the SK and wins it and forgets to play a club.

Now if you play the SQ and it goes K A you have no sure entry to dummy, you have to play the CK and knock out the ace. Now because of your crafty AK of hearts play you lose when RHO has 5 hearts and KTx of spades and the CA anyways, or if LHO has 5 hearts and the CA and RHO started with KT doubleton of spades, or if someone can win and get a diamond ruff, or if someone has 6 clubs and you get overruffed there. I think the combination of ALL of these potential ruffs greatly outweigh the small chance of an opp not covering the queen with Kx(x) of spades.

In case anyone was wondering Kx of spades onside has the same likelihood as KTx onside.

[JLOL]

jdonn, on Feb 2 2009, 02:53 PM, said:

I would run queen first. I am trying to pick up KTx onside, but will gain when it's Kxxx (really K876 I'm assuming) or Kxx or Kx onside if they mistakenly don't cover.

You don't gain even if they don't cover with K876 unless RHO has 4 diamonds also since you will need to ruff a club in dummy otherwise. I would agree with your line if dummy had say KJTx of diamonds, but with this blocked position I think it's definitely wrong.

[jdeegan]

you may have already misplayed the hand depending on the ♦ spot card. If it looks (or feels like) a stiff win ♦K and play ♠Q looking for two finesses (25+ percent) with a ♣ ruff as a second entry. Otherwise, go for two spade finesses assuming no stiff ♦ playing the way you did. Desperate times call for desperate measures - you were willing to gamble against the odds based on larger considerations - so, by all means, do so!

[jdonn]

JLOL, on Feb 2 2009, 04:06 PM, said:

jdonn, on Feb 2 2009, 02:53 PM, said:

I would run queen first. I am trying to pick up KTx onside, but will gain when it's Kxxx (really K876 I'm assuming) or Kxx or Kx onside if they mistakenly don't cover.

You don't gain even if they don't cover with K876 unless RHO has 4 diamonds also since you will need to ruff a club in dummy otherwise. I would agree with your line if dummy had say KJTx of diamonds, but with this blocked position I think it's definitely wrong.

Well FWIW I wouldn't have started with the heart plays, maybe it's wrong after those but I don't think it is otherwise.

[H_KARLUK]

Problem : eliminate KTx trumps.
club loser either goes established diamonds or ruff at table.
entries : dia K on lead, heart K (after trumps safely removed further entry is covering dia honor? then one must win dia at hand and play low to hKing, and start with spQ--hoping Kxx onside) (Sorry i cannot dare h Q finesse)
if club ace with lefty no need to fear dia ruff (3-3 dias = 36 %, 5-1 dias = 15 %. 4-2 dias = 48 %; also 3-2 trumps are 68 %)
To find honor in trebleton is 41 %. (when opps have 5-6 cards adviced avoid J finesse--J with us then no need finesse for ten--no evidence)
That's why i picked to stay with DK at table then club. When i am at table again i plan to start finesse with low trump.
If club ace with righty and lefty ruffs 2nd dia i am wrong.
Otherwise my plans going ok with percentage play.