[Zar]

Good evening:

Just a short note. I cannot find the thread where we discussed the 5-3-1 method versus Zar Points, WTC (Winning Trick Count) etc. To avoid duplicate posting, I just want to say that I posted the extended results in the original thread "Zar Points - Useful or waste of energy".

I'll go through this thread tomorrow and see if there are any unanswered questions.

Make it a great day:

ZAR

[mikestar]

Zar,

I am currently converting some of my old system notes to use Zar points, and I need a clarification.

Currently I use a 26 point game target. Ideally, we bid all 26 point games and stay out of all 25 point games, but this level of accuracy is not possible. I set my point ranges on the assumption that it is equally inaccurate to bid a 25-point game or to miss a 26-point game, it is equally inaccurate to bid a 24 point game or to miss a 27 point game, etc. So although the target is 26, it is ussally correct to bid game when certain of 25, because you may miss a 27 point game if you don't.

Does similar reasoning apply to Zar's 52 points? Is is right to bid game when sure of 51 to avoid the possible miss of a 53 point game? To bid game when sure of 50 to avoid the possible miss of a 54 point game?

Or alternatively is 52 a minimum standard and you should be willing to risk missing 53-54 point games when you can't be sure of 52 and don't have room enough to find out?

My guess would be the former, but I'd rather ask the expert.

A careful reading of the example point counts on your web site convince me that my guess was in error and the second alternative is correct

[Zar]

*** mikestar wrote: “I am currently converting some of my old system notes to use Zar points, and I need a clarification.
<

Any time, Mike – nice to see one more “convert” :-)

>
Currently I use a 26 point game target. Ideally, we bid all 26 point games and stay out of all 25 point games, but this level of accuracy is not possible. I set my point ranges on the assumption that it is equally inaccurate to bid a 25-point game or to miss a 26-point game, it is equally inaccurate to bid a 24 point game or to miss a 27 point game, etc. So although the target is 26, it is usually correct to bid game when certain of 25, because you may miss a 27 point game if you don't.
<

This strategy is questionable, I believe- meaning that not-bidding a 27-point Game is equally “sinful” as bidding a 25-point Game. But I wouldn’t like to open another discussion here :-)

>
Does similar reasoning apply to Zar's 52 points? Is is right to bid game when sure of 51 to avoid the possible miss of a 53 point game? To bid game when sure of 50 to avoid the possible miss of a 54 point game?
<

I don’t know how you can be sure of 51 or 50, to be honest with you. This means that when you decide to NOT bid a Game now, you know that you have exactly 25 and THAT’s why you stop short of Game. If you do that, you must be some kind of a genius :-)

This job is MUCH easier in the Zar Points system because I know your 5-point Zar Limit at any time. And since Zar Points a twice cheaper (meaning that you need 52 rather than 26 for Game, for example) this means that if I know your boundaries within 4 Zar Points, it would translate of knowing your Goren points within 2-points margin! I am sure you see the point. If you want to stay in your 2/1 bidding system, for example, the main thing to do is to rework your invitational and Game forcing schemas. I mean conventions like the Bergen/Jacoby pair of Major raises (both become MUCH more aggressive in terms of HCP, as you might guess), your limit raises etc. Once BOTH partners know what such fundamental bids mean, it gets easier. AND, as always, you can use Zar Points to ONLY judge your hand better in invitational or competitive bidding situations, plus the “to open or not to open” decision.

I guess you’ll enjoy the transition – at least you are not going to fall asleep at the table because you have some additional work to do :-) Cheers:

ZAR

[mikestar]

Zar,

Let me restate my question. Let's say that the auction for our side is 1S-3S (limit) and futher suppose that the Zar point range for 3S is 21-25 Zar points as shown on your website. After revaluation, if opener has 31 or more Zars, he bids game--the combined total is at least 52. But let's say he only has 30 Zars--should he bid and risk a 51-point game or pass and risk missing a 55-point game? With 29 should he bid and risk a 50-point game or pass and risk missing a 54-point game?

What is your advice on this point? Of course I could try it both ways, but coverting my old sytem notes is a bit of work.

[Zar]

*** mikestart wrote: “Let's say that the auction for our side is 1S-3S (limit) and further suppose that the Zar point range for 3S is 21-25 Zar points as shown on your website. After revaluation, if opener has 31 or more Zars, he bids game--the combined total is at least 52. But let's say he only has 30 Zars--should he bid and risk a 51-point game or pass and risk missing a 55-point game? With 29 should he bid and risk a 50-point game or pass and risk missing a 54-point game?
<

I see the point – sorry I delayed the answer, Mike. First, note that the 5-point difference in Zar Points is almost corresponding to 2 Goren points difference – a far cry from the virtually 9-10 points difference you have in the “natural systems” between maximum and minimum. This means you are in a much CLOSER interval than the interval of 4-5 Goren points that the “min” hand would fall in itself.

Having said that, you “accept” an invitation the “normal” way, that is if you are in the upper range (meaning 2 Zar Points interval or 1 Goren point!); or decline if you are at the bare minimum. The same way, the responder simply jumps to a Game with 25 Zar Points, not risking an invitation. As I usually say - just use your head :-) Hope that helps, Mike (I mean not only the last sentence :-)

ZAR

[mikestar]

Thanks, Zar--it's perfectly clear now and my initial guess was correct. My request for clarification stems from the fact that not all authors state requirements in the same fashion--so I will simply treat "52" the way I treat "26" now, a target, not a minimum standard that I must not go even slightly below.

[Zar]

*** mike wrote: "so I will simply treat "52" the way I treat "26" now, a target, not a minimum standard that I must not go even slightly below.
<

Yes, if you play a "natural" system. If there is "invitational" bids involved, you have to build a "feel" about when to invite, when to jump strait to a Game, when to accept/decline an invitation etc. Certainly you can have artificial sequences where you know whatever need to know (through your system of transfers, asking bids etc.). Zar Points give you a "strict" tool to HELP you with these decisions, rather than making a machine out of you :-)

ZAR

[Zar]

Hello:

Bellow is a message CLOSELY related to the Fine Tuning not only of Zar Points, but bidding systems in general.

The Offensive Bidding numbers for Zar Points have been posted to the main Zar Points thread “Zar Points – useful or waste of energy” while the defensive bidding once are in the “Competitive Bidding” thread for Zar Points.

IF you are interested, the corresponding numbers for:

- Goren offensive;
- Goren defensive;
- Milton (HCP) offensive;
- Milton (HCP) defensive;

are also available. They would enable you to “check” the probabilities against the overloading of the bids in your system – you might be surprised by the picture.

Let me know if this wouldn’t be “too much” for the purposes of this forum:

ZAR