jdonn, on Dec 24 2008, 06:49 PM, said:
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Another thing. 1D-(2C)-X would show a minimum of ~8-9 HCP. So when we as responder passed instead, we strongly implied that we had 0-7 or 0-8 HCP.
1= Or a shape with which we can not double?
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Therefore, 1D-(2C)-pa-(3C);X should usually show more than 15 HCP. For Us to rate to be safe at the 3-level, it needs to show ~17+.
2= How do you reach that conclusion? Do you take your supposed 0-7 (or 0-8? which is it?) and add the average of that to what partner would need for us to have half the deck, which you then declare to give us safety? And anyway, why are you implying a bid should only be made if it's safe? On the actual hand the opponents were in a 9 card fit with less than half the deck, is letting them play there winning mps?
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Upon more reflection, I have more sympathy with us passing at MPs (not IMPs) if They are Red. Take Our likely +200 or better and go home.
3= I agree, passing is quite reasonable and this thread has swayed me more in that direction. Maybe I was wrong and it's 'correct' at mps. I certainly don't mean to pretend this is an obvious problem.
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At IMPs, I do not think you can ever afford to pass, but given my 10 loser 4333, I'm not willing to GF w/ 4C even if I do have maximum values for the auction. At IMPs, IMHO you are endplayed into bidding 3H
4= You believe this is a maximum, claim you will bid it as though it were minimum, give no reason why, and conclude by saying you are endplayed into that choice? What if partner opened 2NT, would you pass because you have a 10 loser 4333?
1= ...and what shape would that be? Most 8-9 HCP hands can take action:
a= 5+ card suit, makes a Neg X and then passes or corrects.
b= the obvious 4cM hand makes a Neg X
c= 8-9 HCP w/o a 4cM but with 4+D can raise 1D: 1D-(2C)-2D...
All that's left of your hypothetical set is 8-9 HCP =3334.
On some of those, one might =still= raise
♦'s.
2= We are in a misfit auction and Opener is considering taking action at the 3 level all by himself. Clearly, opener needs extra values to make a forward going call. Unless you like bad scores. If They have the balance of power, We might even get X'd and get a =really= bad score. Particularly at IMPs.
b= As you well know, HCP are an approximation of playing strength. Particularly in contested auctions.
c= Do I really need to start quoting Robson & Segal, Cohen, or Lawrence on the contested auction in the 18-22 HCP per side range?
Yes, sometimes our best odds (MPs) or expectation (IMPs) to get a good score, or at least to avoid a bad score, is to defend.
3= Glad we agree on something here. My initial reaction matched Han's. Yuck!
I'm reminded of some of the better examples Mike Lawrence has in his books.
4= This hand is a minimum response. 7 HCP. It's HCP values are maximum =for the auction=. It is a flat 10 loser hand. 4333 is the worst trick taking shape, and the most defensive shape, in Bridge. If Opener passes, I'm fairly sure We'd all pass (a unanimous action on the BBO forums! Sacrilege!) with this hand.
But Opener did not pass. They X'd. And our hand does not offer much in the way of tricks. Offensive or defensive. Therefore IMHO you are endplayed into treating this hand as a minimum no matter what you do with it.
b= That last is silly since We know when pard opens 2N= 20-21 that they have enough power tricks to rate to have 7+ tricks opposite our likely 2. That situation and this situation are not analogous.
We know pard does not have 20-21 flat. They do not rate to have 7+ tricks based on power in this auction. 4-5 is more like it. Maybe 6 if we are very lucky.
...And we do not have any length tricks or ruffing values to offer him to bolster Our combined tricks to 9+.
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