[ArtK78]

My vulnerable opponents have bid and raised clubs. If partner has a very good hand, then the opponents certainly have at least a nine-card fit.

I fully expect that partner is 4441 or 4450. I bid 3♥.

P.S. Why do I have to shoot my partner during the bidding? Surely there will be enough time after the dummy hits and I can shoot him then. But if his hand is other than as expected, I should probably shoot my opponents as well.

[rogerclee]

jdonn, on Dec 23 2008, 02:24 PM, said:

rogerclee, on Dec 23 2008, 04:17 PM, said:

jdonn, on Dec 23 2008, 01:55 PM, said:

I would bid 3♥, I don't share all this optimism that abounds. Sure pass works when partner is 4342 18, but why can't he be 4450 14?

I am not sure it is necessarily bad to pass if partner is 4450 14.

I know it is necessarily good to pass if partner is 4342 18.

1. I'm sure it's bad in the long run.
2. How likely do you think this is relative to partner being lighter with shorter clubs? What in the world are the opponents bidding on?

What I wrote initially did not really match up with how I felt about the problem, so I edited it while you were responding, lol.

I agree (like I edited) that partner is never 18-19 balanced when we have a hand like this. What I meant was that if partner is 4450 and minimum, I admit that passing is more likely to be bad than good, but will still work out some very nontrivial percentage of the time. If partner is stronger and/or has a singleton club we are in very good shape, especially because as the previous posts have established, we are never going to play game on this hand even if it is right.

[han]

HeavyDluxe, on Dec 23 2008, 03:13 PM, said:

Han,

At the risk of sounding like the kid who can't swim who plays in the deep end of the pool:

Could you 'expound' your reasoning that led you to choose to pass? You laid out your dislike for the options initially, then your choice. I'd be interested what ran through your head in coming to that decision.


Thanks....

Well I'm not sure I should write any more in this thread because I really didn't know what to do. Pass is risky because they might just make it, although partner's double should show quite a good hand, and we have some help on defense. I think pass will often give us a reasonable plus score, and every once in a while a really good score.

3D seems the safest but it is never going to give us a big score, unless partner has a truly huge hand. Remember, partner has already acted at the three level with us having passed over 2C, so with a 4351 17-count partner is not going to make another call if we bid 3D.

Game coulld be good but I have no idea which game and I have no sensible way to keep both 3NT, 4H and 5D in play. 4C at least keeps both 4H and 5D in play but I'm not positive that those are so great.

So I voted for pass, I think it will work out best most often.

(btw Roger, I didn't mean to suggest that 18-19 balanced is likely, we were asked where we wanted to be if partner is 4342 which means partner must be 18-19, and balanced.)

[Codo]

passing can hit the jackpot, but I doubt that this is likely. I play my partner for the normal 4441 or 4450. If he has 4351, 3 Heart can still be fine at mps- can be a disaster too.

I don't like any option particular well, but I guess that 3 Heart may be the bid the majority will choose, so I will try to outplay them, not outbid them.

(Stop laughing, I say I try, not I will...)

[mtvesuvius]

How often is it that partner will have 18-19 Balanced?? I bid 3♥ and share none of this wonderful optimism that runs throught this thread... Partner probably has 14-15 HCP and 4=4=4=1 or 4=4=5=0... Why punish partner?

[Fluffy]

The more and more I read, the more I like pass rather than 3NT. I normally like ♣Axx as a stopper because you can keep the opponents unconnected if the suit is 6-3 or 5-3, but here RHO will have entries.

[the hog]

3H. Definitely not passing as partner would double with a decent, 13-14 4441 4450. Do you still want to defend 3C then?

[jdonn]

rogerclee, on Dec 23 2008, 04:30 PM, said:

I agree (like I edited) that partner is never 18-19 balanced when we have a hand like this. What I meant was that if partner is 4450 and minimum, I admit that passing is more likely to be bad than good, but will still work out some very nontrivial percentage of the time. If partner is stronger and/or has a singleton club we are in very good shape, especially because as the previous posts have established, we are never going to play game on this hand even if it is right.

I agree and disagree with certain parts. You are right passing isn't automatically bad if partner is 4450, it's just not what you would do if you knew that was his shape. Sure if partner is a stronger hand passing is more likely to work, but I disagree that we are never playing game on those hands, he will at some point take a chance and raise to game if his hand is very good.

Anyway having said all that, I don't think pass is that bad at matchpoints but I still wouldn't do it. This looks to me like the sort of hand on which just going plus will beat some pairs since there will be such a mix of results. I do prefer pass to 3NT since I just don't think that would be likely to make (in fact most of my arguments against pass apply even more to 3NT.)

[655321]

I am bidding 4♣, planning to correct 4♠ to 5♦.

Partner should have a good hand here, and some shape - probably 4-3 in the majors and 0-1 club, with some extra values. 4♣ should get us to the right strain, even if we sometimes get too high.

Don't much like Pass, although it could work. Really dislike 3NT.

[rogerclee]

jdonn, on Dec 23 2008, 06:22 PM, said:

I agree and disagree with certain parts. You are right passing isn't automatically bad if partner is 4450, it's just not what you would do if you knew that was his shape. Sure if partner is a stronger hand passing is more likely to work, but I disagree that we are never playing game on those hands, he will at some point take a chance and raise to game if his hand is very good.

Anyway having said all that, I don't think pass is that bad at matchpoints but I still wouldn't do it. This looks to me like the sort of hand on which just going plus will beat some pairs since there will be such a mix of results. I do prefer pass to 3NT since I just don't think that would be likely to make (in fact most of my arguments against pass apply even more to 3NT.)

Another bad sentence by me, I need to cut my losses and stop posting in this thread! Obviously we will play game sometimes, I meant that we will never force to game ourselves. It is likely that if partner decides to bid game over our 3♥ call that I will have made a good decision. Still, I want to reiterate that this is unlikely given that our hand is so good.

I think I initially underestimated the chances that partner had a minimum, but I am still going to pass. If partner is 4351, I am also very happy to defend, since we only have one 8-card fit.

But we do have some common ground, I think 3NT is a terrible call.

[HeavyDluxe]

Thanks everyone for posting those musings. It's helpful for me to hear you think out the call, particular when the decision is thin.

So, thanks.

[Winstonm]

4D I think is the best call.

Partner is more likely to be 34(43)51 or 3361 in this auction so why guess where else we might play when we hold a virtually guaranteed 8-card fit. After that it is a matter of expessing our values. 3D could be a 4333 zero count so I think more action is needed - 4C overstates our hand.

By default, 4D seems about right. Invitational but passable.

Edited: Another thought. If indeed the opposition holds a 9-card fit then we are looking at a minimum of 17 total tricks and 18 if partner is 3361, which argues for bidding on rather than defending.

[han]

Winstonm, on Dec 23 2008, 10:59 PM, said:

Partner is more likely to be 34(43)51 or 3361 in this auction so why guess where else we might play when we hold a virtually guaranteed 8-card fit.

I don't think 4D is unreasonable, but you are aware that you need only 10 tricks for game in hearts while you need 11 for game in diamonds. Playing in our 8-card diamond fit if we also have an 8-card heart fit doesn't look like a good idea.

Quote

By default, 4D seems about right.

What on earth does that mean?

[Winstonm]

han, on Dec 23 2008, 11:34 PM, said:

Winstonm, on Dec 23 2008, 10:59 PM, said:

Partner is more likely to be 34(43)51 or 3361 in this auction so why guess where else we might play when we hold a virtually guaranteed 8-card fit.

I don't think 4D is unreasonable, but you are aware that you need only 10 tricks for game in hearts while you need 11 for game in diamonds. Playing in our 8-card diamond fit if we also have an 8-card heart fit doesn't look like a good idea.

Quote

By default, 4D seems about right.

What on earth does that mean?

I really don't know what any of it means. 4C seemed like a nifty bid until I realized I didn't really know what it meant - or is it one of those Alice-in-Woderland bids that means exactly what I wish it to mean and no more.

I guess 4C couldn't be confusing as 1) pick a major, 2) I have a maximum pass and no clear cut bid 3) I have a 3433 7-count and don't know what to do 4) I have one major and not the other and when you bid the one I have I'll bid 5D and you'll know it's to play and not a cue bid. 5) I have a top-end bottom pass but I have diamonds and shape and we might make game now that I know you have a hand.

Whereas 4D means: I have diamond support. I am inviting game.

So it must mean that it is de fault of the whoever picked the confusing 4C bid.

[cherdano]

4C is a game force that doesn't know which strain to play.

[Fluffy]

The_Hog, on Dec 24 2008, 01:11 AM, said:

3H. Definitely not passing as partner would double with a decent, 13-14 4441 4450. Do you still want to defend 3C then?

I expect more from partner, he doesn't need to act at the 3 level over a partner who has passed 2♣, our double of 3♣ i spenalty, and our 3x bids are limited, we don't need to be protected.

[Gerben42]

In the actual hand, partner had a 4441 with 15, and we make nothing on the 3-level. 3♣ doesn't make either. So Pass you get a top, something else you get an average at best.

Not that it proves anything, because Kxx vs AJTx in ♦ doesn't always make 3 tricks on defense...

[benlessard]

This is a very classic problem.

Surely you understand how bad is to pass when the auction is

1H----(2C)-----???

and you hold.

xxxx
xxx
Kxx
Axx

Here its the same thing but it depend on the likeliness of opener having 5D

In a weak Nt setup its clear that you have to bid 2D on first turn and its not close.

In a strong Nt setup partner is still favorite to have a 5card D suit so 2D is probably a better bid than pass.

The reason is that if partner got a minimum balanced hand you want to play in 2D anyway (expecting to make vs a 15-17 and making a save facing 12-14) and if hes 18-19 pts hand he will make a balancing X but wont raise you. If hes unbalanced he will be glad to hear you bid 2D and you wont have further problems about showing strenght.



Its the same thing with

Qx
xxx
AKxx
xxxx

and the bidding goes

1S-----(2C)-------???

Bidding 2S or making a negX is way better than passing. If you pass and partner reopen you will be stuck.

[Winstonm]

cherdano, on Dec 24 2008, 02:15 AM, said:

4C is a game force that doesn't know which strain to play.

Seems in this case it shows a balanced 7-count that doesn't know what else to bid.

[foo]

Gerben42, on Dec 24 2008, 04:32 AM, said:

In the actual hand, partner had a 4441 with 15, and we make nothing on the 3-level. 3♣ doesn't make either. So Pass you get a top, something else you get an average at best.

Not that it proves anything, because Kxx vs AJTx in ♦ doesn't always make 3 tricks on defense...

Responder's hand here is K7x_87xx_87x_A7x , So I'm not sure why the example of ♦Kxx+AJTx on defense is being brought up?


Another thing. 1D-(2C)-X would show a minimum of ~8-9 HCP. So when we as responder passed instead, we strongly implied that we had 0-7 or 0-8 HCP.

Therefore, 1D-(2C)-pa-(3C);X should usually show more than 15 HCP. For Us to rate to be safe at the 3-level, it needs to show ~17+.


Upon more reflection, I have more sympathy with us passing at MPs (not IMPs) if They are Red. Take Our likely +200 or better and go home.

At IMPs, I do not think you can ever afford to pass, but given my 10 loser 4333, I'm not willing to GF w/ 4C even if I do have maximum values for the auction. At IMPs, IMHO you are endplayed into bidding 3H