[kenrexford]

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

[marie__L]

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 02:25 PM, said:

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

[kenrexford]

marie__L, on Dec 18 2008, 02:30 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 02:25 PM, said:

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

What you have written sounds very authoritative and logical.

I could just as easily explain very authoritatively, though, how mathematically correct "Eight Ever Nine Never" is, give you a ten-card trump fit missing the Queen, and then convince you that contextually playing for the drop makes sense (because, for instance, someone opened 1NT).

If I see the Jack fall under the Queen when I lead to dummy, I am most assuredly dropping the stiff King, not finessing. Suppose I make the assumption (not clear, but I'll bite) that LHO legitimately has 1-1-6-5. That gives him one of the two possible hands:

♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx
♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

With the second hand, after leading the diamond and winning two clubs, I'm looking at hearts with full knowledge that Declarer's finesse will work. I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps). It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value. So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

With the first, I am going passive. Actually, I might even try the tap with that hand, which is why 1-1-6-5 seems strange. But, if I don't go tap, I assuredly have the first hand.

So, I don't buy, myself, this idea that playing a spade to the Queen first is superior. I would NEVER hook the heart, given the defense.

[fred]

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 07:55 PM, said:

I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps).  It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value.  So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

Ken,

I am having difficulty imagining a hand where a 3rd club gains. Declarer can always ruff in his hand if he has, for example, AK8xxx of spades. What "promotable spade values" are you playing partner for - what specific holding(s)?

Meanwhile, it is not hard to come up with hands where the 3rd club allows declarer to make an impossible contract. For example:

AK8xxxx
A
Kxx
Kx

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[marie__L]

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 02:55 PM, said:

marie__L, on Dec 18 2008, 02:30 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 02:25 PM, said:

As the cards lie, then, plunking down the heart Ace first works equally well.

I think the unresolved question, one that may never be resolved, is whether any specific line works best in the long run.

Of course as the cards lie plunking the Ace of Heart first works equally well but this is a wrong line as the you will not make when LHO has the stiff Jack of Spade and a small singleton Heart.

If the Jack of Spade dropped your best chance is by sure to finesse in Heart as you know 3 cards in RHO and only 1 in RHO.

Then playing Spade to the Queen is better than plunking the Ace of Heart first.

What you have written sounds very authoritative and logical.

I could just as easily explain very authoritatively, though, how mathematically correct "Eight Ever Nine Never" is, give you a ten-card trump fit missing the Queen, and then convince you that contextually playing for the drop makes sense (because, for instance, someone opened 1NT).

If I see the Jack fall under the Queen when I lead to dummy, I am most assuredly dropping the stiff King, not finessing. Suppose I make the assumption (not clear, but I'll bite) that LHO legitimately has 1-1-6-5. That gives him one of the two possible hands:

♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx
♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx

With the second hand, after leading the diamond and winning two clubs, I'm looking at hearts with full knowledge that Declarer's finesse will work. I'm also looking, however, at the fact that dummy has the Q9 tight (in trumps). It is not too difficult to imagine partner having some promotable spade value. So, I am 100% sending out a third club.

With the first, I am going passive. Actually, I might even try the tap with that hand, which is why 1-1-6-5 seems strange. But, if I don't go tap, I assuredly have the first hand.

So, I don't buy, myself, this idea that playing a spade to the Queen first is superior. I would NEVER hook the heart, given the defense.

Excuse me but I don't understand how sending out a 3rd Club could promote a trump.?

The Club suit is know 5242 then the declarer can simply ruff in his hand.

[Benoit35]

I agree with Fred. If the club return helps South, he will use it. If not, he can ruff in hand and make it equivalent to returning a diamond.

I think you need better reasons ... Can the absence of a spade return argue your case better, Ken? On second thought, I don't think so and here's why...

Holding ♠J and ♥K, a spade return has the effect of almost guaranteeing solving the trump suit for South... hence making it easy for him to ruff the diamond loser and try the finesse! On the other hand, "don't rock the boat" means that South is stuck with his short supply of entries to dummy so a good West, looking at ♠J ♥K and the table, should think "this is a hard one for declarer, things are looking good so why don't I just exit with a dia-- HEY WAIT! He's so deep in trouble, his only hope might just be to try and bang down the ♥A on me! Let's see, how can I make his life easier?"

And the answer is, give South the ♠J on a silver platter. If the spades aren't solved for South, he will go for my stiff ♥K like he would have done anyway, but if he can now run trumps without using up his entry, he will be quite comfortable taking the heart finesse - the odds are 75% against a 3-1 break.

Once a good defender and a good declarer are both aware of this, it's become a game of "he knows but he knows that I know that he knows..." and we might as well be playing rock-paper-scissors. At this point I throw psychology out the window, and play the odds. ♠J ♥x ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx is three times as likely as ♠J ♥K ♦Qxxxxx ♣AQxxx.

[kenrexford]

Huh?

Let's try the Fred hand. Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx. If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims. How is this an otherwise unmakeable game? It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

As to the general objection that Declarer can ruff a club in his hand. Sure. Declarer is capable of making the right play. However, if you know that Declarer only has one way to go wrong, namely by offering to him a possible mistake, you throw that option out to him. You lose a lot of matchpoints/IMPs if you do not ever cater to Declarer's Folly.

[fred]

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 08:38 PM, said:

Huh?

Let's try the Fred hand. Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx. If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims. How is this an otherwise unmakeable game? It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's 9, partner overruffs with the 10.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's Q, partner gets his 10xx later.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

[kenrexford]

fred, on Dec 18 2008, 03:40 PM, said:

kenrexford, on Dec 18 2008, 08:38 PM, said:

Huh?

Let's try the Fred hand.  Declarer has ♠AKxxxxx ♥A ♦Kxx ♣Kx.  If you lead another diamond, Declarer wins, ruffs a diamond, cashes the spade Queen, heart to hand, pulls trumps, and claims.  How is this an otherwise unmakeable game?  It might be unmakeable after some lead other than a diamond, but Declarer did not get that switch.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's 9, partner overruffs with the 10.

If declarer ruffs the 3rd diamond with dummy's Q, partner gets his 10xx later.

Fred Gitelman
Bridge Base Inc.
www.bridgebase.com

Oh yeah. I keep forgetting that diamonds could be 6-2, such that a ruff cannot work for Declarer.

DUH!!!

Please disregard everything else I wrote earlier. LOL

[JLOL]

Kenrexford said:

stuff

LOL

[kenrexford]

JLOL, on Dec 18 2008, 10:27 PM, said:

Kenrexford said:

stuff

LOL

My thoughts exactly. So many words to prove what could be summed up in four. "I am an idiot!" LOL