[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

(1H)-p-(p)-??

---

I wondered what the best bid is here.

[Free]

I bid 1NT, but I don't need a stopper for this... If you need one, you're screwed.

[han]

The only three calls that I would consider are pass, 1NT and 2C. Each has its obvious flaws. We are minimal for 1NT and we don't have a stopper. Free makes it sound like, because he doesn't "need" a stopper (whatever that means) he is out of trouble but that's of course nonsense. The good thing about 1NT is that if partner has a heart stopper, it's probably ok to play it from our side.

2C on a 4-card suit is weird, but fortunately this is a good 4-card suit and it appeals more to me than double with a doubleton spade. Pass with a 12-count and three small hearts doesn't seem best.

I'll go with 1NT, 2C second choice, pass third.

Move the shape by only 1 and you would have no problem: an extra heart and you can easily pass, a 5-card minor and you can overcall in that suit, 3 spades and you can double.

[rogerclee]

1NT seems like a standout to me, don't like 2♣.

[gwnn]

I will try the adventurous 2♣. Double never occurred to me and unless we have some cute gadget to sort out the stopper situation, I'm not fond of 1NT either. 2♣ can go so quite wrong, but still looks the closest to truth to me.

[Codo]

han, on Dec 14 2008, 03:15 AM, said:

Free makes it sound like, because he doesn't "need" a stopper (whatever that means) he is out of trouble but that's of course nonsense.

While getting older, your wording is getting stronger.
So to use your style: Your statement is beyond ridicolous.

In approx. 85 % of all hands partner has too long hearts to act in the first round, so there will be a stopper quite often (not in all 85 % of course).

If you want to play 3 NT, partner can ask for a stopper.
If you play 1 NT there are many hands where you need no stopper.

If opener has a real strong hand and doubles, you and your partner have good possiblilities to run to another suit. This is much trickier after say 2 Club instead of 1 NT. Partner will often let you play there despite a better fit in another suit.

So it is surely playable to play 1 NT in the pass out seat w/O promising a stopper.

[maggieb]

I have a balanced hand with 11-14 HCP. Let's not overthink this one, boys.

[Hanoi5]

My choices are Pass, 1NT and 2♣ (in that order). I don't like the idea of bidding on Jx of spades for the opening side might easily have a better fit in spades than in hearts and then I would only be helping them by bidding. This idea I read in Mike Lawrence's book on balancing (though I confess I only finished the first chapter).

[maggieb]

Hanoi5, on Dec 13 2008, 04:52 PM, said:

My choices are Pass, 1NT and 2♣ (in that order). I don't like the idea of bidding on Jx of spades for the opening side might easily have a better fit in spades than in hearts and then I would only be helping them by bidding. This idea I read in Mike Lawrence's book on balancing (though I confess I only finished the first chapter).

If you bid 1NT:

1) Do you think LHO is likely to bid 2♠ next? This seems like a stretch. It is certainly possible that this will happen, but it's not too likely to occur, and even if it does, it is not necessarily bad for you. Most hands that are 4-5 in the majors will just pass.

2) RHO already did not bid 1♠, do you think he will bid 2♠ now?

Lawrence's concepts about balancing are good, but it is important to recognize when they don't apply.

[Hanoi5]

Exactly and that's why I think pass is the best option. As you suggest 1NT is unlikely to be met with 2♠ from opener but when it is and they have a fit we were surely better off in 1♥. I think a simulation is in order and I bet Pass is better, especially when they play Flannery.

[han]

Codo, on Dec 13 2008, 03:52 PM, said:

han, on Dec 14 2008, 03:15 AM, said:

Free makes it sound like, because he doesn't "need" a stopper (whatever that means) he is out of trouble but that's of course nonsense.

While getting older, your wording is getting stronger.
So to use your style: Your statement is beyond ridicolous.

In approx. 85 % of all hands partner has too long hearts to act in the first round, so there will be a stopper quite often (not in all 85 % of course).

I don't know where you get your percentages but I'd ask for a refund.

(i.e. get your money back)

[Codo]

Han,

I trust your simulations. Do you mind to make one, to show how often partner will hold 3+ hearts after a bidding like this?
And 4+ Hearts?

I think the settings should be like:
Opener 5+ Hearts 11-20 HCPs
Partner: No weak jump, no strong NT, no take out double, no michaels, no Un2NT, no 18+ HCPs
RHO: No good fit and 0-6 HCPs


For your efforts, I will give you all the money I got back from my elder source.

[rogerclee]

Please run a simulation, Han. There are two bets I want to take in this thread!

[Free]

han, on Dec 13 2008, 07:15 PM, said:

Free makes it sound like, because he doesn't "need" a stopper (whatever that means)

If you want to bitch about poor language go to the spelling club. Everyone knows what I mean, so I guess you're just proving your intelligence here...

[maggieb]

Free, on Dec 13 2008, 06:50 PM, said:

han, on Dec 13 2008, 07:15 PM, said:

Free makes it sound like, because he doesn't "need" a stopper (whatever that means)

If you want to bitch about poor language go to the spelling club. Everyone knows what I mean, so I guess you're just proving your intelligence here...

I don't know what your original post means.

Does it mean that just because you have an agreement that this doesn't promise a heart stopper with your favorite partner, that this hand is a nonproblem? Does it mean that if you don't have such an agreement, that this problem is "impossible" to solve?

Both of these are complete nonsense, as Han said, so I hope you meant something else!

[Hanoi5]

I ran a simulation in dmpro, though it's not easy setting the constraints. For example, on the second simulation I got a hand where responder held KQTxx in spades which I for one wouldn't pass. All in all it seems only about 30% of the hands give the opening side game in spades. It isn't a small number though.

[maggieb]

Hanoi5, on Dec 13 2008, 07:12 PM, said:

I ran a simulation in dmpro, though it's not easy setting the constraints. For example, on the second simulation I got a hand where responder held KQTxx in spades which I for one wouldn't pass. All in all it seems only about 30% of the hands give the opening side game in spades. It isn't a small number though.

1) How are you getting there on all these hands where 4♠ makes?
2) They can make game in spades 30% of the time? Please double-check this, it is obviously wrong.

[whereagles]

maggieb, on Dec 13 2008, 09:51 PM, said:

I have a balanced hand with 11-14 HCP. Let's not overthink this one, boys.

Indeed. Though pass comes to mind...

[jdonn]

Hanoi5, on Dec 13 2008, 07:12 PM, said:

I ran a simulation in dmpro, though it's not easy setting the constraints. For example, on the second simulation I got a hand where responder held KQTxx in spades which I for one wouldn't pass. All in all it seems only about 30% of the hands give the opening side game in spades. It isn't a small number though.

30% of the time they have game in spades? If they have game 30% of the time in all denominations combined then clearly opener and/or responder are underbidding by a mile, and this is when we know at least one opponent has a 12 count as well. You must be way off on your numbers.

[han]

I ran a simulation as requested, but I don't think this is a very suitable situation for a simulation since it is very tough to define the restrictions on each of the hands. What constitutes an 1S overcall for example, and which which hands would responder bid 1S instead of pass?

These were the restrictions I used:

Opener: 11-19 points, 5+ hearts, fewer spades than hearts, at least as many hearts as clubs or diamonds.

Partner: at most 14 HCP, fewer than 6 spades, no 7-card minor, when 5 spades fewer than 8 points. Not 6+ diamonds or 6+ clubs headed by 2 of the top 5 cards and 12+ points. Not 12+ points, 3+ spades, diamonds and clubs and at most 2 hearts. (I know there are hands with 15+ points where partner will not be able to act but since these hands are not so easy to define I decided to ignore them)

RHO: 0-5 points, no 6 spades or 7-card minor, not 4-5 points and 5+ spades, not 5 points and 3+ hearts.

Hanoi's claims are easiest to counter, out of the 200 hands I dealt they make 4S 15 times, so 7.5% of the time, exactly one quarter of his 30%. Why do we get such different numbers? I don't know. I think my 7.5% is more realistic and since sometimes they won't get to game when they can make it, I think we shouldn't be too concerned about it. The chance that we can make a vulnerable 3NT is larger (13%) and we will be able to get there more easily.

Codo's claim is harder to check because it is not exactly clear what it means:

Quote

In approx. 85 % of all hands partner has too long hearts to act in the first round

I take this to mean that in 85% of all hands partner is good enough to act (say 11+ points?) but his shape is such that he has no good bid. This is still vague, but by going through the hands manually I estimated that about 35% of the hands partner would have acted if it wasn't for the long hearts.

If codo has just said "very often partner has a heart stopper" then I would have agreed with him. Perhaps he noticed that my vote also goes to 1NT. I just reacted to free's comment that suggested that it is not a problem at all to bid 1NT without a stopper. While it is true that it will often work out, sometimes they will just take the first 5 or 6 hearts tricks against you, smiling.