ggwhiz, on Nov 24 2008, 06:50 PM, said:
I don't consider it lazy directing when there are too many possible outcomes.
With all due respect, there just aren't in this case.
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4 spades? 4 hearts? 5 clubs? Who would bid what, when? A 3 spade bid followed by 4 hearts doesn't garauntee 5-cards in hearts does it?
4
♠? 5
♣?? Where are you getting these contracts from. Every game contract in a long suit held by either player is not an outcome you need to consider. Just look at what contract would have gotten them the best result (4
♥ or 6
♥ in this case, depending on the breaks), and if there is a reasonably likely auction to get them there (easy for either contract) then that's the contract. It's easy. You are confusing yourself by taking a needlessly long train of thought to contracts you don't have to consider.
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As soon as the non-offending side has to make a couple or three bids to get to their max. spot, it gets muddy.
That's what you are there for!
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NABC casebooks are full of hands where the committee decides they simply can't decide what would occur in a complicated situation.
That's a very small percentage of the total cases, and in the instances when a bridge result could have been assigned then those decisions have tended to be lambasted and very poorly rated by the casebook commentators.
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Also, you might be right about avg+ = percentage on other boards but I'm not sure.
Might be right? Blackshoe kindly referred you to the exact law!
Please let me know about any questions or interest or bug reports about GIB.