[FrancesHinden]

Scoring: IMP

1♦ P 1♥ P
2♣ P 2♠ P
3♣ P 3♦ P
3♠ x P P
xx P 4♣ P
4♦ P 4♥ P
5NT P 6♣ P
7♦ P P P

---

2♠ was fourth suit forcing to game
pass of the double denied a spade control or a spade stop
xx showed a spade control (could have been second round)
4♣/4♥ were cue bids, 4♣ could be ace or king, 4♥ promised the ace
5NT was a trump ask, 6♣ one of the top 3 honours

How do you play on the 8 of hearts lead?
As a side matter, how would you play on a trump lead?
(in due course, trumps will transpire to be 2-2)

LHO is an expert who has played for his country, but isn't in the Helgemo class. But then, neither are you.

(This was on vugraph, and the commentators unanimously claimed that declarer, my partner, had taken the wrong line. I know why he played the way he did, and I think he was right.)

[maggieb]

I'd go for the simple line and just finesse RHO for the ♥K. Even if hearts are 5-2, I will have a double squeeze.

[OleBerg]

FrancesHinden, on Nov 17 2008, 12:36 PM, said:

(This was on vugraph, and the commentators unanimously claimed that declarer, my partner, had taken the wrong line. I know why he played the way he did, and I think he was right.)

Well, commentators can see all 52 cards, and many has a problem abstracting from this, especially if the situation is a little murky.

[Wackojack]

I cant see a double squeeze. If LHO has guarded Q♣, K♥ as well as ♠s, then he can be squeezed. Maybe he foresaw this happening to him if he led a trump and to forestall this tried underleading Kx. Nevertheless, I'll go for LHO not having Q♣. So go up with ♥Ace, draw 3 rounds of trumps ending in dummy, and then play a small club to the 10. This picks up a quite likely 4-1 split.

[hotShot]

LHO dbled 3♠ most likely because he holds good long ♠ and lead ♥.
This should unually not give away a trick because he knows that partners potential ♥ honors are behind the 1♥ response.
So I'm playing RHO for ♥K, I take the first trick with the Ace follow with ♥5 (i want to save my entries) and ruff that. Now 3 rounds of trump ending in dummy. Now it's time for the ruffing finesse .....and a good idea how to handle the ♣.

[FrancesHinden]

Wackojack, on Nov 17 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

I cant see a double squeeze. If LHO has guarded Q♣, K♥ as well as ♠s, then he can be squeezed. Maybe he foresaw this happening to him if he led a trump and to forestall this tried underleading Kx. Nevertheless, I'll go for LHO not having Q♣. So go up with ♥Ace, draw 3 rounds of trumps ending in dummy, and then play a small club to the 10. This picks up a quite likely 4-1 split.

If RHO has Kxxxx hearts and LHO has (as expected) the SK, there is a double squeeze.

[MFA]

This lead is suspicious with xx in diamonds, west could easily have the ♥K.
It looks normal to try to combine chances in hearts and clubs, ♦KQ, ♣KA and then if necessary a heart finesse. This is what I would do after a trump lead, so I'll stick to it and avoid the big if west has been clever with the lead.

[MFA]

FrancesHinden, on Nov 17 2008, 08:06 AM, said:

Wackojack, on Nov 17 2008, 12:22 PM, said:

I cant see a double squeeze.  If LHO has guarded Q♣, K♥ as well as ♠s, then he can be squeezed.  Maybe he foresaw this happening to him if he led a trump and to forestall this tried underleading Kx.  Nevertheless, I'll go for LHO not having Q♣.  So go up with ♥Ace, draw 3 rounds of trumps ending in dummy, and then play a small club to the 10.  This picks up a quite likely 4-1 split.

If RHO has Kxxxx hearts and LHO has (as expected) the SK, there is a double squeeze.

There is. But only because trumps are 2-2 and if you are careful!!

[gnasher]

MFA, on Nov 17 2008, 02:15 PM, said:

FrancesHinden, on Nov 17 2008, 08:06 AM, said:

If RHO has Kxxxx hearts and LHO has (as expected) the SK, there is a double squeeze.

There is. But only because trumps are 2-2 and if you are careful!!

You can cope with a singleton ten of trumps on your left as well: two rounds of trumps ending in dummy; lead top hearts until covered; cross to ♦9, cash heart winners, cross to cash ♠A; cash remaining trumps.

[gnasher]

MFA, on Nov 17 2008, 02:08 PM, said:

It looks normal to try to combine chances in hearts and clubs, ♦KQ, ♣KA and then if necessary a heart finesse. This is what I would do after a trump lead, so I'll stick to it and avoid the big      if west has been clever with the lead.

That's what I did after a trump lead, on an uninformative auction. At the time I thought this obviously best, and was a bit scathing of the line chosen at the other table, which was to ruff dummy's low heart, hoping for Hx, then guess the clubs. However, I've changed my mind.

It's reasonable to assume that spades are 5-5, because nobody bid 2♠. You have enough entries to ruff three hearts, so you can get to a point where you "know" who has the three-card club holding. That gives odds of 60%, whereas the line of cashing top clubs and then playing for four heart tricks is, I think:

Stiff Q          1/4 *0.283                 = .07
Qx               2/5 * 0.678                = .27
Hearts coming in (1 - .27 - .07) * .622 / 2 = .20

giving a total of about 55%

[FrancesHinden]

How do you get your odds on hearts coming in for 4 tricks via a ruffing finesse?

I make it (1/7 of the 6-1 breaks) + 1/2 of the 4-3 breaks, or 32%

This doesn't take into account the trump position, because you can't both test clubs and take the ruffing heart finesse unless trumps are 2-2, or as you say, singleton 10.

Are you taking into account 2-2 or 3-1 trumps with singleton 10 as well, because I make the combined probability of hearts coming in and trumps favourable to be only 15%?

[FrancesHinden]

gnasher, on Nov 17 2008, 01:52 PM, said:

It's reasonable to assume that spades are 5-5, because nobody bid 2♠. You have enough entries to ruff three hearts, so you can get to a point where you "know" who has the three-card club holding. That gives odds of 60%,

You don't quite have the entries to do everything you want.

You can't ruff 3 hearts in hand if trumps are 3-1 without having to use the CA as an entry (unless there is singleton 10).

Even with trumps 2-2, you can't ruff 3 hearts in hand, and draw trumps, and keep the CA in dummy without running out of trumps (you need two trump entries to dummy). Now you can't pick up any 4-1 club breaks unless the HK was to three.

By the way, I'm not so sure about the spade assumption. At our table LHO has doubled the 3S bid, so why can't LHO have, say, K109x and RHO Jxxxxx. You really think RHO would bid 2S after 1D P 1H on Jxxxxx Kxx xx xx ? But on the other side, you do have the SK marked in LHO's hand, which might come in useful.

[gnasher]

FrancesHinden, on Nov 17 2008, 03:05 PM, said:

How do you get your odds on hearts coming in for 4 tricks via a ruffing finesse?

I make it (1/7 of the 6-1 breaks) + 1/2 of the 4-3 breaks, or 32%

My calculations assumed trumps 2-2 (possibly incorrectly, because having drawn two trumps I couldn't then revert to the ruff-hearts-and-guess-clubs line).

I agree with your 32% (.622 / 2 + the chance of stiff king, which I'd omitted from my calculations), but then I multiplied it by the probability that ♣Q is guarded (1 - .27 - .07). If you don't do this, you double count the cases where ♣Q is coming down and RHO has ♥Kxx(x).

Didn't they teach you maths at hijacker school?

This post has been edited by gnasher: 2008-November-17, 08:58

[OleBerg]

An intriguing hand.

Better math-chrushers than me have already answered (and I dont have my tables nearby), but I still think some things have not been taken into consideration.

First of, the double, and the lack of a spade bid/preempt:

At the time 3♠ was doubled, NT played in North was still a possible denomination, so I'll give the double credit for showing the ♠K and very likely the J too. I do not feel however, that this, and the missing spade-bids, gives me licence to bank on that spades are 5-5. Non-vulnerable, East migt have bid 1♠ with the KJ-fifth and the ♥K. Also a slight indication that the ♥K is with RHO.

The lead:
Like already noted, the lead look suspicious. I find it very likely that LHO has divined, that a heart-lead is "safe", as the bidding, at least somehow, indicates that South isn't worried about second round control in hearts.
East had probably made the lead to take out an entry in dummy early in hand.

From what holdings wouldn't east do that? The king is of no consequence, but with a hand with shortness in hearts, East could fear that a heart lead might rip open the suit, if declarer holds Kx of hearts. A slight indication that hearts are balanced, and even more so if RHO has the ♥K.

All this, I think, would upgrade MFA's and Gnashers original line, and that the discovery line should be downgraded. But if it is enough, I honestly don't know.